FanPost

May 11th, Dodgers vs DBacks - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN ARI J.Ely vs D.Haren ARI 60.00% 58.55%

Notes: Jon Ely gets tossed into the action as Charlie Haeger came down with a mild case of Phantomitis. If the injury is contageous, let's bunk Garrett Anderson with Haeger for a few nights. Both Vegas and the Simulator are in pretty good agreement that the Diamondbacks have around a 60% chance of winning Tuesday's game. Get your guesses in on the game score. It appears that the score of Dodger games are recently ending with a more likely outcome. With Ely pitching you never know.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 ARI 3-2 &nbsp 51 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 101 LAN 9-8
2 ARI 4-3 &nbsp 52 ARI 8-4 &nbsp 102 LAN 8-0
3 ARI 5-4 &nbsp 53 ARI 8-7 &nbsp 103 LAN 10-6
4 ARI 2-1 &nbsp 54 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 104 ARI 10-6
5 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 55 ARI 8-1 &nbsp 105 ARI 10-0
6 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 56 ARI 7-0 &nbsp 106 ARI 11-5
7 ARI 4-2 &nbsp 57 ARI 8-5 &nbsp 107 LAN 11-4
8 ARI 3-1 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 108 ARI 12-2
9 ARI 5-2 &nbsp 59 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 109 ARI 12-3
10 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 60 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 110 LAN 10-1
11 ARI 5-3 &nbsp 61 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 111 LAN 10-7
12 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 62 ARI 9-2 &nbsp 112 LAN 11-3
13 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 63 ARI 9-3 &nbsp 113 ARI 10-7
14 ARI 6-5 &nbsp 64 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 114 ARI 12-4
15 ARI 4-1 &nbsp 65 ARI 9-1 &nbsp 115 ARI 10-9
16 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 66 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 116 LAN 10-8
17 ARI 6-3 &nbsp 67 ARI 8-6 &nbsp 117 LAN 11-2
18 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 68 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 118 LAN 11-5
19 ARI 5-1 &nbsp 69 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 119 ARI 11-0
20 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 70 ARI 8-0 &nbsp 120 LAN 9-0
21 ARI 6-2 &nbsp 71 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 121 ARI 11-6
22 ARI 6-4 &nbsp 72 ARI 9-4 &nbsp 122 ARI 12-1
23 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 73 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 123 ARI 13-2
24 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 74 ARI 10-2 &nbsp 124 LAN 10-9
25 ARI 6-1 &nbsp 75 ARI 9-5 &nbsp 125 ARI 10-8
26 ARI 7-6 &nbsp 76 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 126 ARI 12-5
27 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 77 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 127 LAN 11-1
28 ARI 7-2 &nbsp 78 ARI 10-3 &nbsp 128 LAN 11-6
29 ARI 3-0 &nbsp 79 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 129 LAN 11-7
30 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 80 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 130 ARI 13-4
31 ARI 1-0 &nbsp 81 ARI 9-8 &nbsp 131 ARI 13-3
32 ARI 4-0 &nbsp 82 ARI 9-6 &nbsp 132 LAN 12-2
33 ARI 7-3 &nbsp 83 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 133 ARI 12-0
34 ARI 7-4 &nbsp 84 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 134 LAN 12-4
35 ARI 2-0 &nbsp 85 ARI 10-1 &nbsp 135 LAN 10-0
36 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 86 ARI 10-4 &nbsp 136 LAN 11-8
37 ARI 5-0 &nbsp 87 ARI 9-0 &nbsp 137 ARI 11-8
38 ARI 7-1 &nbsp 88 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 138 LAN 12-3
39 ARI 7-5 &nbsp 89 ARI 10-5 &nbsp 139 ARI 12-6
40 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 90 ARI 9-7 &nbsp 140 LAN 12-5
41 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 91 ARI 11-3 &nbsp 141 LAN 12-6
42 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 92 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 142 ARI 13-5
43 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 93 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 143 ARI 11-7
44 ARI 8-2 &nbsp 94 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 144 ARI 14-3
45 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 95 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 145 ARI 13-1
46 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 96 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 146 LAN 13-5
47 ARI 8-3 &nbsp 97 ARI 11-2 &nbsp 147 ARI 12-7
48 ARI 6-0 &nbsp 98 ARI 11-1 &nbsp 148 ARI 14-2
49 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 99 ARI 11-4 &nbsp 149 LAN 12-1
50 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 100 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 150 ARI 11-10

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.