## May 11th, Dodgers vs DBacks - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:15 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob LAN ARI J.Ely vs D.Haren ARI 60.00% 58.55%

Notes: Jon Ely gets tossed into the action as Charlie Haeger came down with a mild case of Phantomitis. If the injury is contageous, let's bunk Garrett Anderson with Haeger for a few nights. Both Vegas and the Simulator are in pretty good agreement that the Diamondbacks have around a 60% chance of winning Tuesday's game. Get your guesses in on the game score. It appears that the score of Dodger games are recently ending with a more likely outcome. With Ely pitching you never know.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 ARI 3-2   51 LAN 7-2   101 LAN 9-8 2 ARI 4-3   52 ARI 8-4   102 LAN 8-0 3 ARI 5-4   53 ARI 8-7   103 LAN 10-6 4 ARI 2-1   54 LAN 6-1   104 ARI 10-6 5 LAN 3-2   55 ARI 8-1   105 ARI 10-0 6 LAN 4-3   56 ARI 7-0   106 ARI 11-5 7 ARI 4-2   57 ARI 8-5   107 LAN 11-4 8 ARI 3-1   58 LAN 8-3   108 ARI 12-2 9 ARI 5-2   59 LAN 4-0   109 ARI 12-3 10 LAN 5-4   60 LAN 8-4   110 LAN 10-1 11 ARI 5-3   61 LAN 8-5   111 LAN 10-7 12 LAN 2-1   62 ARI 9-2   112 LAN 11-3 13 LAN 4-2   63 ARI 9-3   113 ARI 10-7 14 ARI 6-5   64 LAN 7-1   114 ARI 12-4 15 ARI 4-1   65 ARI 9-1   115 ARI 10-9 16 LAN 5-3   66 LAN 8-2   116 LAN 10-8 17 ARI 6-3   67 ARI 8-6   117 LAN 11-2 18 LAN 3-1   68 LAN 5-0   118 LAN 11-5 19 ARI 5-1   69 LAN 8-6   119 ARI 11-0 20 LAN 5-2   70 ARI 8-0   120 LAN 9-0 21 ARI 6-2   71 LAN 8-7   121 ARI 11-6 22 ARI 6-4   72 ARI 9-4   122 ARI 12-1 23 LAN 6-5   73 LAN 8-1   123 ARI 13-2 24 LAN 6-4   74 ARI 10-2   124 LAN 10-9 25 ARI 6-1   75 ARI 9-5   125 ARI 10-8 26 ARI 7-6   76 LAN 9-4   126 ARI 12-5 27 LAN 4-1   77 LAN 9-3   127 LAN 11-1 28 ARI 7-2   78 ARI 10-3   128 LAN 11-6 29 ARI 3-0   79 LAN 6-0   129 LAN 11-7 30 LAN 6-3   80 LAN 9-2   130 ARI 13-4 31 ARI 1-0   81 ARI 9-8   131 ARI 13-3 32 ARI 4-0   82 ARI 9-6   132 LAN 12-2 33 ARI 7-3   83 LAN 9-6   133 ARI 12-0 34 ARI 7-4   84 LAN 9-5   134 LAN 12-4 35 ARI 2-0   85 ARI 10-1   135 LAN 10-0 36 LAN 6-2   86 ARI 10-4   136 LAN 11-8 37 ARI 5-0   87 ARI 9-0   137 ARI 11-8 38 ARI 7-1   88 LAN 9-1   138 LAN 12-3 39 ARI 7-5   89 ARI 10-5   139 ARI 12-6 40 LAN 5-1   90 ARI 9-7   140 LAN 12-5 41 LAN 7-4   91 ARI 11-3   141 LAN 12-6 42 LAN 7-3   92 LAN 10-2   142 ARI 13-5 43 LAN 2-0   93 LAN 7-0   143 ARI 11-7 44 ARI 8-2   94 LAN 10-4   144 ARI 14-3 45 LAN 7-5   95 LAN 9-7   145 ARI 13-1 46 LAN 1-0   96 LAN 10-3   146 LAN 13-5 47 ARI 8-3   97 ARI 11-2   147 ARI 12-7 48 ARI 6-0   98 ARI 11-1   148 ARI 14-2 49 LAN 7-6   99 ARI 11-4   149 LAN 12-1 50 LAN 3-0   100 LAN 10-5   150 ARI 11-10

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.