## Limerick Day, Dodgers vs DBacks - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 8:15 AM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob LAN ARI H.Kuroda vs E.Jackson LAN 52.83% 57.85%

Notes: My personal impression from these last two games is that the Diamondbacks are a pretty bad team. Their bullpen is awful and their hitters all strike out way too often. I am not sure who I was more afraid of batting against us, Dan Haren, Connor Jackson or Edwin Jackson. Anyways, back to today's game. Vegas has the Dodgers as very slim favorites. I am not exactly sure why they are such slim favorites, it is not like Edwin Jackson has been setting the world on fire with his 7.32 / 5.40 / 4.51 (ERA / FIP / xFIP). The simulator on the otherhand, lists the Dodgers as a more solid favorite and probably a more realistic choice imo. Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 ARI 4-3 76 ARI 8-2 2 ARI 3-2 77 LAN 10-4 3 ARI 5-4 78 LAN 10-5 4 LAN 4-3 79 LAN 9-7 5 LAN 3-2 80 ARI 9-8 6 LAN 4-2 81 LAN 9-0 7 ARI 2-1 82 LAN 11-2 8 LAN 5-4 83 LAN 10-1 9 LAN 5-3 84 LAN 11-3 10 LAN 5-2 85 ARI 9-4 11 ARI 6-5 86 ARI 9-5 12 LAN 3-1 87 ARI 9-3 13 LAN 2-1 88 ARI 8-1 14 ARI 4-2 89 ARI 9-6 15 LAN 6-4 90 ARI 6-0 16 LAN 6-3 91 LAN 11-4 17 LAN 4-1 92 LAN 10-6 18 ARI 5-3 93 ARI 9-7 19 LAN 6-5 94 ARI 9-2 20 LAN 6-2 95 LAN 11-1 21 LAN 5-1 96 LAN 11-5 22 ARI 3-1 97 LAN 9-8 23 ARI 5-2 98 ARI 7-0 24 ARI 7-6 99 ARI 10-3 25 LAN 7-3 100 ARI 10-4 26 LAN 6-1 101 LAN 10-0 27 LAN 7-2 102 ARI 9-1 28 LAN 7-4 103 LAN 12-3 29 ARI 6-3 104 LAN 12-2 30 ARI 6-4 105 LAN 10-7 31 ARI 4-1 106 LAN 11-6 32 LAN 7-5 107 ARI 10-2 33 LAN 7-1 108 LAN 12-4 34 LAN 8-2 109 ARI 10-9 35 LAN 4-0 110 LAN 10-8 36 LAN 7-6 111 LAN 12-1 37 LAN 3-0 112 ARI 10-5 38 LAN 8-3 113 ARI 10-6 39 LAN 2-0 114 ARI 8-0 40 ARI 1-0 115 ARI 10-7 41 ARI 6-2 116 ARI 11-2 42 LAN 8-4 117 LAN 12-5 43 LAN 8-1 118 LAN 11-0 44 LAN 5-0 119 LAN 10-9 45 LAN 8-5 120 ARI 10-1 46 ARI 7-5 121 LAN 11-7 47 ARI 5-1 122 LAN 13-3 48 ARI 2-0 123 LAN 13-2 49 ARI 7-4 124 ARI 11-3 50 LAN 1-0 125 LAN 11-8 51 LAN 6-0 126 ARI 11-4 52 ARI 8-7 127 LAN 12-6 53 LAN 9-3 128 ARI 10-8 54 LAN 9-2 129 ARI 9-0 55 ARI 3-0 130 LAN 13-5 56 ARI 7-3 131 LAN 13-1 57 LAN 8-6 132 LAN 13-4 58 LAN 9-4 133 ARI 11-6 59 ARI 6-1 134 ARI 11-5 60 ARI 7-2 135 LAN 12-0 61 LAN 7-0 136 LAN 12-7 62 LAN 9-1 137 LAN 11-9 63 LAN 8-7 138 ARI 11-7 64 ARI 4-0 139 ARI 11-10 65 LAN 9-5 140 ARI 11-1 66 ARI 8-5 141 LAN 14-3 67 ARI 8-4 142 ARI 12-5 68 ARI 8-3 143 LAN 14-4 69 LAN 10-2 144 LAN 13-6 70 LAN 9-6 145 ARI 12-3 71 ARI 5-0 146 ARI 12-2 72 LAN 10-3 147 ARI 11-8 73 LAN 8-0 148 LAN 14-2 74 ARI 8-6 149 LAN 12-8 75 ARI 7-1 150 ARI 12-4

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.