## May 14th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:00 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob LAN SD R.Ortiz vs J.Garland SD 57.45% 55.47%

Notes: Both the Padres and Dodgers are playing well. The Padres just came off of a pitching dominant sweep of the Giants and the Dodgers an offensive dominant sweep of the Diamondbacks. Something has to give. More than likely it will be Ortiz that gives. Vegas has the Padres as a moderate favorite, while the simulator favors the Padres but not quite by the same amount as Vegas. This is about as big of a series as you can have for games this early in the season. Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 SD 3-2   51 SD 7-5   101 SD 11-4 2 SD 2-1   52 SD 8-2   102 SD 11-1 3 SD 4-3   53 LAN 7-1   103 LAN 11-2 4 LAN 3-2   54 SD 7-0   104 LAN 11-1 5 LAN 2-1   55 LAN 7-6   105 LAN 10-0 6 LAN 4-3   56 SD 8-3   106 LAN 9-8 7 SD 3-1   57 SD 8-1   107 SD 10-5 8 SD 4-2   58 LAN 8-2   108 SD 11-3 9 SD 5-4   59 LAN 6-0   109 LAN 10-6 10 LAN 3-1   60 LAN 8-3   110 LAN 11-3 11 SD 1-0   61 SD 8-4   111 LAN 11-4 12 LAN 4-2   62 LAN 8-4   112 SD 10-6 13 SD 4-1   63 SD 8-5   113 LAN 11-5 14 SD 5-2   64 LAN 7-0   114 LAN 10-7 15 SD 5-3   65 LAN 8-1   115 SD 10-7 16 SD 2-0   66 LAN 8-5   116 SD 11-5 17 LAN 5-4   67 SD 8-7   117 LAN 12-3 18 SD 3-0   68 LAN 8-6   118 SD 11-0 19 LAN 5-3   69 SD 9-2   119 SD 12-2 20 LAN 1-0   70 SD 8-0   120 LAN 11-0 21 LAN 4-1   71 LAN 9-2   121 SD 12-1 22 LAN 5-2   72 SD 9-1   122 SD 12-3 23 SD 5-1   73 SD 9-3   123 SD 10-9 24 LAN 2-0   74 LAN 9-3   124 LAN 10-8 25 SD 6-5   75 SD 8-6   125 SD 10-8 26 SD 4-0   76 LAN 9-1   126 LAN 12-1 27 SD 6-3   77 LAN 8-7   127 LAN 10-9 28 SD 6-2   78 LAN 9-4   128 LAN 11-6 29 LAN 3-0   79 LAN 8-0   129 SD 12-4 30 LAN 5-1   80 SD 9-4   130 LAN 12-4 31 SD 6-1   81 LAN 9-5   131 LAN 12-5 32 SD 6-4   82 SD 9-5   132 SD 11-6 33 LAN 6-4   83 SD 10-3   133 LAN 12-2 34 LAN 6-3   84 SD 10-2   134 LAN 11-7 35 LAN 6-5   85 SD 10-1   135 SD 12-0 36 SD 5-0   86 LAN 10-3   136 SD 12-5 37 LAN 6-2   87 LAN 9-6   137 SD 11-7 38 SD 7-2   88 SD 9-0   138 SD 13-3 39 LAN 4-0   89 LAN 10-1   139 LAN 12-6 40 LAN 6-1   90 LAN 10-4   140 LAN 11-8 41 SD 7-3   91 LAN 10-2   141 SD 13-1 42 SD 7-1   92 LAN 9-7   142 SD 11-8 43 SD 6-0   93 SD 10-4   143 LAN 13-1 44 LAN 7-3   94 LAN 9-0   144 LAN 13-3 45 SD 7-6   95 SD 9-6   145 LAN 13-2 46 SD 7-4   96 SD 9-8   146 LAN 12-0 47 LAN 7-4   97 LAN 10-5   147 LAN 14-3 48 LAN 5-0   98 SD 11-2   148 SD 13-2 49 LAN 7-2   99 SD 10-0   149 SD 11-10 50 LAN 7-5   100 SD 9-7   150 LAN 12-7

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.