FanPost

May 14th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN SD R.Ortiz vs J.Garland SD 57.45% 55.47%

Notes: Both the Padres and Dodgers are playing well. The Padres just came off of a pitching dominant sweep of the Giants and the Dodgers an offensive dominant sweep of the Diamondbacks. Something has to give. More than likely it will be Ortiz that gives. Vegas has the Padres as a moderate favorite, while the simulator favors the Padres but not quite by the same amount as Vegas. This is about as big of a series as you can have for games this early in the season. Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 3-2 &nbsp 51 SD 7-5 &nbsp 101 SD 11-4
2 SD 2-1 &nbsp 52 SD 8-2 &nbsp 102 SD 11-1
3 SD 4-3 &nbsp 53 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 103 LAN 11-2
4 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 54 SD 7-0 &nbsp 104 LAN 11-1
5 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 55 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 105 LAN 10-0
6 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 56 SD 8-3 &nbsp 106 LAN 9-8
7 SD 3-1 &nbsp 57 SD 8-1 &nbsp 107 SD 10-5
8 SD 4-2 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 108 SD 11-3
9 SD 5-4 &nbsp 59 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 109 LAN 10-6
10 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 60 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 110 LAN 11-3
11 SD 1-0 &nbsp 61 SD 8-4 &nbsp 111 LAN 11-4
12 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 112 SD 10-6
13 SD 4-1 &nbsp 63 SD 8-5 &nbsp 113 LAN 11-5
14 SD 5-2 &nbsp 64 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 114 LAN 10-7
15 SD 5-3 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 115 SD 10-7
16 SD 2-0 &nbsp 66 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 116 SD 11-5
17 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 67 SD 8-7 &nbsp 117 LAN 12-3
18 SD 3-0 &nbsp 68 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 118 SD 11-0
19 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 69 SD 9-2 &nbsp 119 SD 12-2
20 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 70 SD 8-0 &nbsp 120 LAN 11-0
21 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 71 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 121 SD 12-1
22 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 72 SD 9-1 &nbsp 122 SD 12-3
23 SD 5-1 &nbsp 73 SD 9-3 &nbsp 123 SD 10-9
24 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 74 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 124 LAN 10-8
25 SD 6-5 &nbsp 75 SD 8-6 &nbsp 125 SD 10-8
26 SD 4-0 &nbsp 76 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 126 LAN 12-1
27 SD 6-3 &nbsp 77 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 127 LAN 10-9
28 SD 6-2 &nbsp 78 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 128 LAN 11-6
29 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 79 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 129 SD 12-4
30 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 80 SD 9-4 &nbsp 130 LAN 12-4
31 SD 6-1 &nbsp 81 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 131 LAN 12-5
32 SD 6-4 &nbsp 82 SD 9-5 &nbsp 132 SD 11-6
33 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 83 SD 10-3 &nbsp 133 LAN 12-2
34 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 84 SD 10-2 &nbsp 134 LAN 11-7
35 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 85 SD 10-1 &nbsp 135 SD 12-0
36 SD 5-0 &nbsp 86 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 136 SD 12-5
37 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 87 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 137 SD 11-7
38 SD 7-2 &nbsp 88 SD 9-0 &nbsp 138 SD 13-3
39 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 89 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 139 LAN 12-6
40 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 90 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 140 LAN 11-8
41 SD 7-3 &nbsp 91 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 141 SD 13-1
42 SD 7-1 &nbsp 92 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 142 SD 11-8
43 SD 6-0 &nbsp 93 SD 10-4 &nbsp 143 LAN 13-1
44 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 94 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 144 LAN 13-3
45 SD 7-6 &nbsp 95 SD 9-6 &nbsp 145 LAN 13-2
46 SD 7-4 &nbsp 96 SD 9-8 &nbsp 146 LAN 12-0
47 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 97 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 147 LAN 14-3
48 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 98 SD 11-2 &nbsp 148 SD 13-2
49 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 99 SD 10-0 &nbsp 149 SD 11-10
50 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 100 SD 9-7 &nbsp 150 LAN 12-7

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.