May 20th, Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:00 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob SD LAN K.Correia vs C.Kershaw LAN 61.54% 63.89%

Notes: Time to start a new winning streak and what better way to do so on Clayton Kershaw Day. Both Vegas and the simulator give the Dodgers slightly over a 60% chance of starting a new winning streak. Hopefully, the good Kershaw shows up and you usually know right off the bat. Vegas has the over/under at just over 7 runs and the simulator says we are likely to be "under". Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 LAN 2-1 51 SD 7-2 101 LAN 9-7 2 LAN 3-2 52 SD 7-3 102 LAN 10-5 3 LAN 1-0 53 SD 7-4 103 SD 9-7 4 LAN 4-3 54 LAN 7-5 104 LAN 9-8 5 LAN 3-1 55 LAN 8-3 105 LAN 12-0 6 SD 2-1 56 LAN 9-1 106 LAN 12-3 7 LAN 2-0 57 SD 7-1 107 LAN 11-4 8 SD 3-2 58 LAN 9-0 108 SD 10-5 9 LAN 3-0 59 LAN 9-2 109 SD 10-1 10 LAN 4-1 60 SD 7-5 110 LAN 10-6 11 LAN 4-2 61 SD 6-0 111 SD 9-8 12 LAN 5-4 62 LAN 9-3 112 SD 10-6 13 LAN 4-0 63 SD 7-6 113 LAN 12-4 14 SD 4-3 64 LAN 8-4 114 LAN 11-5 15 SD 3-1 65 SD 8-2 115 LAN 13-1 16 SD 1-0 66 SD 8-3 116 LAN 13-0 17 LAN 5-2 67 LAN 10-1 117 SD 11-1 18 SD 4-2 68 LAN 10-2 118 SD 11-2 19 LAN 5-1 69 SD 7-0 119 SD 10-0 20 LAN 5-0 70 LAN 8-5 120 LAN 13-2 21 LAN 5-3 71 SD 8-4 121 SD 11-3 22 SD 4-1 72 LAN 8-7 122 SD 11-4 23 SD 2-0 73 SD 8-1 123 LAN 13-3 24 LAN 6-1 74 LAN 9-4 124 LAN 14-1 25 SD 5-3 75 LAN 10-0 125 LAN 13-4 26 SD 5-4 76 SD 8-5 126 LAN 11-6 27 SD 5-2 77 LAN 11-1 127 LAN 10-9 28 LAN 6-3 78 LAN 8-6 128 SD 10-7 29 LAN 6-2 79 LAN 10-3 129 LAN 10-7 30 LAN 6-5 80 SD 8-6 130 LAN 12-5 31 LAN 6-0 81 SD 8-7 131 LAN 14-2 32 SD 3-0 82 SD 9-2 132 SD 12-3 33 SD 5-1 83 SD 9-4 133 SD 12-1 34 LAN 6-4 84 LAN 11-2 134 SD 12-2 35 LAN 7-1 85 SD 9-3 135 SD 11-0 36 SD 6-4 86 LAN 9-5 136 SD 12-4 37 SD 6-3 87 SD 9-1 137 SD 11-6 38 LAN 7-0 88 LAN 10-4 138 LAN 10-8 39 LAN 7-2 89 SD 8-0 139 SD 10-8 40 SD 4-0 90 LAN 11-0 140 LAN 14-0 41 SD 6-2 91 LAN 9-6 141 SD 11-5 42 SD 6-5 92 SD 9-5 142 LAN 15-1 43 LAN 7-3 93 LAN 11-3 143 LAN 11-7 44 SD 6-1 94 SD 10-4 144 SD 10-9 45 LAN 8-1 95 SD 9-6 145 SD 12-5 46 SD 5-0 96 SD 10-3 146 SD 13-3 47 LAN 7-4 97 SD 9-0 147 LAN 13-5 48 LAN 7-6 98 LAN 12-1 148 SD 11-7 49 LAN 8-0 99 SD 10-2 149 LAN 12-7 50 LAN 8-2 100 LAN 12-2 150 LAN 11-8

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.