## May 7th, Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 11:15 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob COL LAN E.Rogers vs H.Kuroda LAN 62.12% 62.80%

Notes: Loss - Loss - Win - ???. An obvious pattern to me. What do you think? Get your game score guesses in before kinbote snatches up the correct score again.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 LAN 3-2   51 COL 6-1   101 COL 10-5 2 LAN 4-3   52 COL 4-0   102 LAN 10-6 3 LAN 2-1   53 COL 7-5   103 LAN 11-0 4 LAN 3-1   54 COL 7-2   104 COL 8-0 5 LAN 5-4   55 COL 7-6   105 COL 9-8 6 COL 3-2   56 LAN 8-4   106 LAN 12-2 7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 9-2   107 LAN 12-1 8 COL 4-3   58 LAN 8-0   108 LAN 10-7 9 LAN 4-1   59 LAN 9-1   109 COL 10-6 10 COL 2-1   60 LAN 8-7   110 LAN 11-5 11 LAN 5-2   61 LAN 8-5   111 LAN 12-3 12 LAN 5-3   62 LAN 9-3   112 COL 10-1 13 LAN 1-0   63 COL 8-4   113 COL 11-3 14 LAN 3-0   64 COL 5-0   114 COL 9-0 15 COL 4-2   65 COL 8-3   115 COL 10-7 16 COL 3-1   66 COL 8-2   116 COL 11-4 17 COL 5-4   67 COL 8-5   117 LAN 13-2 18 LAN 5-1   68 COL 7-1   118 LAN 12-0 19 LAN 2-0   69 LAN 9-4   119 LAN 12-4 20 LAN 6-5   70 LAN 8-6   120 COL 11-2 21 LAN 6-3   71 COL 6-0   121 LAN 10-9 22 COL 5-3   72 LAN 9-0   122 COL 11-6 23 LAN 4-0   73 COL 8-6   123 COL 11-5 24 LAN 6-2   74 LAN 10-1   124 LAN 11-6 25 LAN 6-1   75 LAN 10-2   125 COL 12-4 26 COL 5-2   76 LAN 10-3   126 COL 10-8 27 COL 4-1   77 COL 8-7   127 LAN 10-8 28 LAN 5-0   78 COL 8-1   128 COL 12-3 29 LAN 6-4   79 COL 9-3   129 COL 10-0 30 COL 1-0   80 COL 9-4   130 COL 11-1 31 LAN 7-2   81 COL 9-2   131 LAN 13-3 32 COL 2-0   82 LAN 9-6   132 LAN 13-1 33 COL 6-5   83 LAN 9-5   133 LAN 12-5 34 COL 6-3   84 COL 9-5   134 COL 11-7 35 LAN 7-1   85 LAN 10-4   135 LAN 13-0 36 COL 6-4   86 COL 7-0   136 COL 12-5 37 LAN 7-4   87 LAN 11-2   137 LAN 13-4 38 LAN 7-3   88 LAN 9-8   138 LAN 11-7 39 LAN 6-0   89 LAN 10-0   139 LAN 13-5 40 LAN 7-6   90 COL 9-6   140 LAN 12-6 41 COL 6-2   91 LAN 11-1   141 COL 12-1 42 COL 5-1   92 COL 9-1   142 COL 11-8 43 COL 3-0   93 COL 10-3   143 COL 10-9 44 LAN 8-2   94 LAN 10-5   144 COL 12-6 45 LAN 8-1   95 LAN 11-3   145 LAN 11-10 46 LAN 7-0   96 COL 9-7   146 COL 12-2 47 LAN 7-5   97 LAN 9-7   147 LAN 11-8 48 COL 7-3   98 COL 10-4   148 LAN 14-2 49 COL 7-4   99 COL 10-2   149 LAN 14-1 50 LAN 8-3   100 LAN 11-4   150 LAN 12-7

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.