## June 28th, Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 12:45 AM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob LAN SF C.Billingsley vs B.Zito SF 53.92% 52.29%

Notes: The simulator and vegas are in good agreement on today's odds. Both also see the over/under right around 7-1/2 runs. Not having Broxton available for the game costs the Dodgers around 2.5% in win probability. Get your game score guesses in, in this very important divisional matchup.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 SF 3-2 51 SF 6-0 101 SF 11-2 2 SF 2-1 52 LAN 8-3 102 LAN 10-6 3 SF 4-3 53 LAN 8-2 103 LAN 11-1 4 LAN 3-2 54 SF 7-1 104 LAN 11-4 5 LAN 2-1 55 SF 7-5 105 SF 11-3 6 SF 5-4 56 LAN 7-6 106 SF 11-4 7 SF 3-1 57 LAN 8-4 107 SF 9-7 8 SF 1-0 58 LAN 8-1 108 LAN 9-8 9 LAN 4-3 59 LAN 7-0 109 SF 11-1 10 SF 4-2 60 SF 8-2 110 SF 10-5 11 LAN 3-1 61 SF 8-7 111 LAN 11-5 12 LAN 4-2 62 SF 7-0 112 SF 10-0 13 SF 4-1 63 SF 8-3 113 LAN 10-7 14 LAN 4-1 64 SF 8-1 114 LAN 12-3 15 SF 2-0 65 LAN 8-5 115 LAN 11-6 16 SF 5-2 66 LAN 9-2 116 LAN 12-2 17 LAN 5-3 67 LAN 9-3 117 LAN 11-0 18 LAN 5-2 68 LAN 8-0 118 LAN 12-1 19 SF 5-3 69 LAN 9-1 119 LAN 12-4 20 LAN 5-4 70 SF 8-4 120 SF 10-6 21 SF 6-5 71 SF 8-5 121 LAN 12-5 22 LAN 1-0 72 LAN 8-6 122 SF 12-3 23 LAN 2-0 73 LAN 9-4 123 SF 11-0 24 SF 3-0 74 SF 9-2 124 SF 10-7 25 LAN 5-1 75 SF 9-3 125 SF 10-9 26 LAN 3-0 76 LAN 10-3 126 SF 12-2 27 SF 5-1 77 LAN 9-5 127 LAN 10-8 28 LAN 6-3 78 LAN 8-7 128 SF 11-5 29 LAN 6-2 79 SF 8-6 129 SF 11-6 30 SF 6-3 80 SF 9-1 130 SF 10-8 31 LAN 6-4 81 LAN 10-2 131 LAN 11-7 32 SF 4-0 82 LAN 10-1 132 LAN 10-9 33 LAN 4-0 83 LAN 9-0 133 LAN 13-3 34 SF 6-2 84 SF 8-0 134 SF 12-4 35 LAN 6-1 85 SF 9-4 135 LAN 12-0 36 LAN 6-5 86 LAN 10-4 136 SF 12-1 37 SF 6-4 87 SF 9-5 137 LAN 13-2 38 SF 6-1 88 LAN 9-6 138 SF 13-4 39 SF 5-0 89 SF 9-8 139 LAN 13-1 40 LAN 5-0 90 SF 9-0 140 LAN 12-6 41 SF 7-6 91 SF 10-3 141 LAN 13-4 42 LAN 7-3 92 SF 9-6 142 LAN 11-8 43 LAN 7-2 93 SF 10-2 143 SF 12-0 44 LAN 7-4 94 LAN 10-5 144 SF 11-7 45 LAN 7-1 95 LAN 9-7 145 LAN 14-2 46 SF 7-3 96 LAN 11-3 146 SF 13-2 47 LAN 6-0 97 SF 10-4 147 LAN 14-3 48 SF 7-4 98 LAN 10-0 148 LAN 12-7 49 LAN 7-5 99 LAN 11-2 149 LAN 14-4 50 SF 7-2 100 SF 10-1 150 SF 13-1

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.