FanPost

June 30th, Dodgers vs Giants - Sweepulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:08 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN SF V.Padilla vs J.Sanchez SF 53.70% 57.70%

Notes: The simulator is a little less confident in a Dodgers sweep than the good folks in Vegas. Maybe when the smart money wakes up to see the Dodgers "house money" lineup the odds will move more in the Giants favor. Someone else can feel free to update the odds, as all gambling links are blocked at my office for good reason. Opening line has the Giants at -116 on the ML and the simulator has it at -136 for the bad guys. Early 12:45PM start time on Wednesday, so get your guesses in early. Can the LAN 4-2 score come in three times in a row??

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2 51 LAN 7-5 101 SF 11-3
2 SF 2-1 52 SF 7-5 102 LAN 9-7
3 SF 4-3 53 SF 8-2 103 LAN 11-3
4 SF 3-1 54 LAN 7-1 104 SF 10-5
5 LAN 3-2 55 LAN 7-6 105 SF 9-7
6 LAN 2-1 56 SF 8-1 106 LAN 11-4
7 SF 4-2 57 SF 8-3 107 LAN 10-6
8 SF 5-4 58 LAN 8-3 108 SF 11-0
9 SF 1-0 59 LAN 8-2 109 LAN 9-8
10 LAN 4-3 60 LAN 8-4 110 SF 10-6
11 SF 4-1 61 LAN 8-5 111 LAN 11-5
12 LAN 4-2 62 LAN 6-0 112 LAN 10-7
13 SF 2-0 63 SF 8-0 113 SF 12-2
14 SF 3-0 64 SF 8-4 114 SF 11-4
15 LAN 3-1 65 LAN 8-1 115 LAN 10-0
16 SF 5-2 66 SF 8-5 116 SF 10-7
17 SF 5-3 67 SF 9-2 117 LAN 11-6
18 LAN 5-4 68 SF 8-7 118 LAN 11-1
19 SF 5-1 69 SF 9-1 119 LAN 12-3
20 LAN 5-3 70 LAN 7-0 120 LAN 12-2
21 LAN 5-2 71 SF 9-3 121 LAN 10-8
22 SF 4-0 72 LAN 9-3 122 SF 11-5
23 LAN 4-1 73 LAN 8-6 123 SF 12-0
24 LAN 1-0 74 LAN 8-7 124 SF 10-9
25 SF 6-5 75 SF 8-6 125 SF 12-1
26 LAN 2-0 76 SF 9-0 126 SF 12-3
27 SF 5-0 77 LAN 9-2 127 LAN 12-1
28 SF 6-3 78 LAN 9-4 128 LAN 10-9
29 SF 6-2 79 SF 9-4 129 LAN 12-4
30 LAN 6-3 80 LAN 9-5 130 SF 11-6
31 SF 6-1 81 SF 10-2 131 LAN 11-0
32 LAN 5-1 82 SF 9-5 132 SF 13-2
33 SF 6-4 83 SF 10-3 133 LAN 11-7
34 LAN 6-4 84 LAN 9-1 134 LAN 12-5
35 LAN 6-2 85 SF 10-1 135 SF 12-4
36 LAN 6-5 86 LAN 10-3 136 SF 13-1
37 LAN 3-0 87 LAN 9-6 137 SF 12-5
38 SF 6-0 88 LAN 8-0 138 LAN 13-2
39 SF 7-2 89 LAN 10-4 139 SF 10-8
40 SF 7-3 90 SF 10-0 140 SF 13-3
41 SF 7-1 91 SF 9-6 141 SF 11-7
42 LAN 6-1 92 LAN 10-2 142 LAN 11-8
43 LAN 7-4 93 SF 9-8 143 LAN 12-6
44 SF 7-6 94 SF 10-4 144 LAN 13-1
45 LAN 4-0 95 LAN 9-0 145 LAN 13-3
46 LAN 7-3 96 LAN 10-5 146 SF 11-8
47 SF 7-4 97 SF 11-2 147 LAN 13-4
48 LAN 7-2 98 LAN 11-2 148 LAN 13-5
49 SF 7-0 99 LAN 10-1 149 LAN 12-0
50 LAN 5-0 100 SF 11-1 150 SF 14-2

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.