FanPost

July 16th, Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Cardinals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN STL C.Billingsley vs J.Garcia STL 56.90% 57.08%

Notes: The Dodgers can't seem to break free of the Cardinals' home heat advantage. Chad Billingsley will attempt to turn the Dodgers fortunes around, while likely sweating off 10 or 15 pounds on the mound. Both the simulator and Vegas are in good agreement as to the likelihood of a Cardinals victory. Remember to get your game score guesses and over/under entry in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. C.Billingsley earned runs allowed: 2.5
2. C.Billingsley total pitches: 98.5
3. Dodgers total runs scored: 4.5
4. J.Garcia total batters faced: 25.5
5. Number of innings that the Dodgers score in: 2.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 STL 3-2 51 LAN 7-5 101 LAN 9-7
2 STL 2-1 52 LAN 7-1 102 STL 11-4
3 STL 4-3 53 STL 8-2 103 STL 9-7
4 LAN 3-2 54 STL 7-5 104 STL 11-0
5 LAN 2-1 55 LAN 7-6 105 LAN 11-2
6 STL 1-0 56 STL 8-1 106 LAN 10-5
7 STL 3-1 57 STL 8-3 107 LAN 9-8
8 STL 4-2 58 LAN 6-0 108 STL 12-2
9 LAN 4-3 59 STL 8-0 109 STL 12-1
10 STL 5-4 60 LAN 8-3 110 LAN 11-4
11 LAN 3-1 61 STL 9-2 111 LAN 11-3
12 LAN 4-2 62 LAN 8-4 112 LAN 10-0
13 STL 2-0 63 LAN 8-2 113 LAN 10-6
14 STL 4-1 64 LAN 7-0 114 STL 12-4
15 LAN 1-0 65 STL 9-1 115 STL 10-6
16 STL 3-0 66 STL 8-4 116 LAN 11-5
17 STL 5-2 67 LAN 8-5 117 STL 12-0
18 STL 5-3 68 STL 8-7 118 STL 12-3
19 STL 5-1 69 LAN 8-1 119 LAN 11-1
20 LAN 2-0 70 STL 9-3 120 STL 10-9
21 LAN 4-1 71 STL 9-0 121 STL 11-5
22 LAN 5-4 72 STL 8-5 122 LAN 10-7
23 LAN 5-3 73 LAN 8-6 123 STL 13-1
24 STL 4-0 74 LAN 9-2 124 LAN 11-6
25 LAN 5-2 75 STL 9-4 125 STL 10-7
26 STL 6-5 76 STL 8-6 126 LAN 12-4
27 LAN 3-0 77 LAN 9-3 127 LAN 12-1
28 STL 5-0 78 STL 10-1 128 LAN 12-2
29 STL 6-2 79 STL 10-3 129 LAN 11-0
30 STL 6-1 80 LAN 8-0 130 STL 13-3
31 STL 6-3 81 LAN 8-7 131 STL 11-6
32 LAN 5-1 82 LAN 9-1 132 STL 13-2
33 LAN 6-3 83 LAN 9-4 133 STL 12-5
34 STL 6-4 84 STL 10-2 134 LAN 12-3
35 LAN 6-5 85 LAN 9-6 135 LAN 10-9
36 LAN 6-4 86 LAN 9-5 136 STL 14-2
37 LAN 6-2 87 STL 9-5 137 LAN 10-8
38 LAN 4-0 88 STL 10-4 138 LAN 13-2
39 STL 6-0 89 STL 10-0 139 STL 10-8
40 STL 7-1 90 STL 11-2 140 STL 14-3
41 LAN 6-1 91 STL 9-6 141 LAN 12-5
42 STL 7-2 92 LAN 9-0 142 LAN 13-3
43 STL 7-6 93 LAN 10-3 143 STL 13-0
44 LAN 5-0 94 STL 9-8 144 STL 12-6
45 STL 7-3 95 STL 11-1 145 STL 13-5
46 LAN 7-3 96 LAN 10-1 146 STL 11-7
47 LAN 7-4 97 STL 10-5 147 STL 13-4
48 STL 7-0 98 STL 11-3 148 LAN 11-8
49 LAN 7-2 99 LAN 10-4 149 STL 14-1
50 STL 7-4 100 LAN 10-2 150 LAN 11-7

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.