## July 25th, Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Mets and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 9:00 AM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob NYN LAN R.Dickey vs C.Kershaw LAN 63.64% 60.96%

Notes: Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. C.Kershaw strikeouts minus walks: 5.5
3. C.Kershaw number of pitches: 105.5
4. R.Dickey number of groundballs: 11.5
5. Total bases, Dodgers starting outfielders: 5.5

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 LAN 2-1 51 NYN 7-3 101 NYN 10-1 2 LAN 3-2 52 NYN 7-1 102 LAN 10-5 3 LAN 4-3 53 NYN 7-4 103 LAN 11-4 4 LAN 1-0 54 LAN 8-0 104 NYN 10-5 5 LAN 3-1 55 LAN 8-3 105 LAN 12-3 6 NYN 2-1 56 LAN 7-5 106 NYN 9-7 7 NYN 3-2 57 NYN 7-5 107 LAN 12-2 8 LAN 2-0 58 NYN 6-0 108 LAN 12-1 9 LAN 4-2 59 NYN 7-6 109 NYN 11-4 10 LAN 4-1 60 LAN 9-1 110 NYN 11-3 11 LAN 5-4 61 NYN 8-2 111 NYN 9-8 12 LAN 3-0 62 NYN 8-3 112 NYN 11-1 13 NYN 4-3 63 NYN 8-1 113 NYN 10-6 14 NYN 3-1 64 LAN 9-2 114 LAN 12-0 15 NYN 1-0 65 LAN 9-0 115 NYN 11-2 16 NYN 4-2 66 LAN 8-4 116 LAN 10-6 17 LAN 5-2 67 NYN 8-4 117 NYN 10-0 18 LAN 4-0 68 NYN 7-0 118 LAN 11-5 19 LAN 5-1 69 LAN 8-7 119 NYN 12-2 20 LAN 5-3 70 LAN 8-5 120 NYN 11-5 21 NYN 2-0 71 NYN 8-5 121 LAN 12-4 22 NYN 4-1 72 LAN 9-3 122 LAN 13-3 23 LAN 5-0 73 LAN 10-1 123 NYN 10-7 24 LAN 6-5 74 NYN 9-3 124 LAN 10-9 25 NYN 5-4 75 LAN 9-4 125 LAN 10-7 26 NYN 5-3 76 LAN 8-6 126 LAN 13-1 27 NYN 5-2 77 NYN 8-6 127 NYN 12-1 28 LAN 6-1 78 NYN 9-4 128 LAN 13-2 29 LAN 6-3 79 LAN 10-2 129 LAN 10-8 30 LAN 6-2 80 NYN 9-2 130 LAN 13-4 31 NYN 3-0 81 LAN 10-0 131 LAN 14-1 32 NYN 5-1 82 NYN 9-1 132 NYN 12-4 33 LAN 6-0 83 LAN 10-3 133 NYN 12-3 34 LAN 6-4 84 NYN 8-7 134 NYN 10-8 35 NYN 6-3 85 NYN 8-0 135 LAN 11-6 36 NYN 6-2 86 LAN 11-2 136 NYN 13-2 37 NYN 4-0 87 NYN 9-5 137 LAN 13-0 38 NYN 6-5 88 LAN 9-8 138 LAN 12-5 39 NYN 6-4 89 LAN 10-4 139 NYN 11-0 40 LAN 7-2 90 LAN 9-6 140 NYN 11-6 41 LAN 7-1 91 LAN 11-1 141 LAN 11-8 42 LAN 7-6 92 NYN 9-6 142 NYN 12-5 43 NYN 6-1 93 LAN 9-5 143 NYN 10-9 44 LAN 7-3 94 NYN 10-3 144 LAN 14-2 45 LAN 7-0 95 NYN 10-2 145 LAN 12-6 46 LAN 7-4 96 NYN 10-4 146 NYN 13-4 47 NYN 5-0 97 NYN 9-0 147 NYN 13-1 48 NYN 7-2 98 LAN 11-3 148 LAN 14-0 49 LAN 8-1 99 LAN 11-0 149 LAN 11-7 50 LAN 8-2 100 LAN 9-7 150 NYN 13-3

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.