## July 9th, Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Cubs and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 10:15 AM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob CHN LAN T.Lilly vs C.Billingsley LAN 59.51% 63.86

Notes: The Dodgers are firm favorites today as the simulator adds some extra love to Chad Billingsley on top of what the Vegas experts give. This is a rather important game for the Dodgers as the Padres and Rockies will lock horns in Denver in a game that the Rockies are solid favorites in. Look for another low scoring, well pitched game. Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. C.Billingsley strikes thrown: 67.5
2. Dodgers total runs scored: 4.5
3. T.Lilly total pitches: 103.5
4. R.Furcal+M.Kemp total bases: 5.5
5. Dodgers total number of pitchers used: 3.5

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 LAN 2-1 51 LAN 8-0 101 LAN 12-1 2 LAN 3-2 52 LAN 8-3 102 CHN 10-1 3 LAN 4-3 53 CHN 7-2 103 CHN 9-0 4 LAN 3-1 54 LAN 7-5 104 LAN 12-0 5 LAN 1-0 55 CHN 7-4 105 LAN 9-7 6 CHN 2-1 56 CHN 7-1 106 LAN 12-3 7 CHN 3-2 57 LAN 9-1 107 CHN 10-5 8 LAN 4-2 58 LAN 9-2 108 CHN 10-4 9 LAN 2-0 59 CHN 6-0 109 LAN 11-5 10 LAN 4-1 60 LAN 8-4 110 CHN 9-7 11 LAN 3-0 61 CHN 7-5 111 CHN 9-8 12 LAN 5-4 62 LAN 9-0 112 LAN 13-2 13 CHN 4-3 63 CHN 7-6 113 CHN 11-2 14 LAN 5-2 64 LAN 8-5 114 CHN 10-6 15 CHN 3-1 65 LAN 9-3 115 LAN 13-1 16 CHN 4-2 66 CHN 8-2 116 LAN 10-6 17 CHN 1-0 67 CHN 8-3 117 LAN 10-9 18 LAN 4-0 68 CHN 8-4 118 LAN 12-4 19 LAN 5-1 69 LAN 8-7 119 CHN 11-3 20 LAN 5-3 70 LAN 9-4 120 CHN 11-4 21 CHN 2-0 71 LAN 10-1 121 LAN 12-5 22 LAN 5-0 72 CHN 8-1 122 CHN 11-5 23 LAN 6-1 73 CHN 7-0 123 CHN 10-0 24 CHN 4-1 74 LAN 10-2 124 LAN 13-0 25 CHN 5-3 75 LAN 8-6 125 LAN 11-6 26 CHN 5-4 76 LAN 10-0 126 CHN 11-1 27 LAN 6-3 77 LAN 10-3 127 LAN 13-3 28 LAN 6-2 78 CHN 9-3 128 LAN 10-8 29 LAN 6-5 79 CHN 9-2 129 LAN 10-7 30 CHN 5-2 80 CHN 8-6 130 LAN 14-2 31 LAN 6-0 81 CHN 8-5 131 CHN 12-3 32 CHN 3-0 82 LAN 11-1 132 CHN 10-7 33 LAN 6-4 83 LAN 9-5 133 CHN 12-2 34 LAN 7-2 84 CHN 8-0 134 CHN 11-6 35 CHN 5-1 85 CHN 8-7 135 LAN 11-7 36 LAN 7-1 86 LAN 11-2 136 CHN 11-0 37 LAN 7-0 87 LAN 10-4 137 CHN 12-5 38 CHN 6-3 88 CHN 9-4 138 CHN 10-8 39 CHN 6-2 89 CHN 9-1 139 LAN 13-4 40 CHN 6-4 90 LAN 11-0 140 LAN 14-3 41 LAN 7-3 91 CHN 9-6 141 LAN 14-1 42 CHN 6-5 92 CHN 9-5 142 CHN 12-4 43 CHN 4-0 93 CHN 10-3 143 LAN 12-6 44 LAN 7-4 94 LAN 11-3 144 CHN 11-7 45 LAN 8-1 95 LAN 9-6 145 CHN 12-1 46 LAN 7-6 96 LAN 10-5 146 LAN 15-1 47 CHN 6-1 97 LAN 11-4 147 LAN 13-5 48 LAN 8-2 98 LAN 9-8 148 CHN 12-0 49 CHN 5-0 99 LAN 12-2 149 CHN 10-9 50 CHN 7-3 100 CHN 10-2 150 LAN 16-1

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.