## August 2nd, Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 11:00 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob SD LAN C.Richard vs H.Kuroda LAN 57.08% 57.65%

Notes: The Dodgers still have a little sliver of a chance at making the playoffs. To have any realistic shot at winning the NL West they will need to sweep the Padres. Joe Torre and the Dodgers bats need to be "all in" this series. No 40+ pitch outings from Broxton in any of the first two games. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 105.5
3. C.Richard number of strikeouts plus A.Gonzalez total bases: 7.5
4. Dodgers runs minus Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 0.5
5. Padres bullpen earned runs allowed: 0.5