FanPost

August 21st, Reds vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Reds and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
CIN LAN J.Cueto vs C.Billingsley
LAN 54.13% 60.06%

Notes: Vegas is showing Chad Billingsley very little respect today, only giving the Dodgers a 54.13% chance of winning. Billingsley (3.66 / 3.28 / 3.95) has been a little bit lucky xFIP-wise but a little bit unlucky based off of his FIP. Cueto's (3.38 / 3.85 / 4.36) FIP on the other hand has been lucky by half a run and his xFIP by nearly a full run. I think Vegas is under selling the Dodgers a little bit on this game. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley number of strikeouts: 5.5
3. C.Billingsley strikes minus balls: 26.5
4. J.Cueto total batters faced: 26.5
5. Dodgers number of HRs: 0.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1 51 CIN 7-4 101 LAN 10-5
2 LAN 3-2 52 CIN 7-1 102 CIN 9-7
3 LAN 4-3 53 LAN 8-2 103 CIN 10-5
4 LAN 1-0 54 CIN 6-0 104 CIN 11-2
5 CIN 2-1 55 LAN 8-0 105 LAN 9-7
6 CIN 3-2 56 CIN 7-5 106 LAN 12-2
7 LAN 3-1 57 LAN 7-5 107 LAN 11-4
8 LAN 2-0 58 LAN 8-3 108 CIN 11-3
9 LAN 4-1 59 LAN 9-2 109 CIN 9-8
10 LAN 4-2 60 LAN 8-4 110 LAN 12-1
11 CIN 3-1 61 CIN 8-2 111 CIN 10-0
12 LAN 5-4 62 CIN 7-6 112 LAN 11-5
13 LAN 3-0 63 CIN 7-0 113 LAN 10-6
14 CIN 4-3 64 LAN 9-1 114 CIN 11-4
15 CIN 1-0 65 CIN 8-3 115 CIN 11-1
16 CIN 4-2 66 CIN 8-1 116 CIN 10-6
17 CIN 2-0 67 CIN 8-4 117 LAN 12-0
18 LAN 4-0 68 LAN 9-3 118 LAN 12-3
19 LAN 5-2 69 LAN 8-5 119 CIN 10-7
20 LAN 5-1 70 CIN 8-5 120 CIN 12-1
21 LAN 5-3 71 CIN 8-0 121 CIN 11-5
22 CIN 4-1 72 LAN 8-7 122 CIN 11-0
23 CIN 3-0 73 LAN 9-0 123 CIN 12-4
24 CIN 5-4 74 LAN 10-1 124 LAN 10-7
25 LAN 5-0 75 LAN 9-4 125 LAN 10-9
26 CIN 5-3 76 CIN 9-2 126 LAN 11-6
27 CIN 5-2 77 CIN 9-3 127 LAN 13-1
28 LAN 6-5 78 LAN 10-2 128 CIN 12-3
29 LAN 6-2 79 CIN 9-1 129 LAN 13-0
30 LAN 6-1 80 CIN 8-6 130 CIN 12-2
31 LAN 6-3 81 LAN 10-0 131 CIN 11-6
32 CIN 5-1 82 LAN 10-3 132 LAN 12-4
33 CIN 4-0 83 CIN 8-7 133 LAN 13-2
34 LAN 6-0 84 LAN 8-6 134 CIN 10-8
35 LAN 6-4 85 CIN 9-4 135 LAN 14-3
36 CIN 6-3 86 CIN 9-5 136 LAN 12-5
37 CIN 6-2 87 CIN 9-0 137 CIN 12-0
38 LAN 7-1 88 LAN 11-2 138 LAN 13-3
39 LAN 7-2 89 LAN 9-5 139 CIN 12-5
40 CIN 6-4 90 LAN 11-1 140 LAN 12-6
41 CIN 6-1 91 LAN 10-4 141 LAN 14-1
42 CIN 6-5 92 CIN 10-2 142 LAN 10-8
43 CIN 5-0 93 CIN 9-6 143 LAN 14-0
44 LAN 7-0 94 CIN 10-1 144 CIN 11-7
45 LAN 7-3 95 LAN 9-6 145 CIN 10-9
46 LAN 7-6 96 LAN 9-8 146 CIN 13-1
47 CIN 7-3 97 CIN 10-3 147 LAN 13-4
48 LAN 8-1 98 LAN 11-0 148 LAN 14-2
49 CIN 7-2 99 CIN 10-4 149 LAN 11-7
50 LAN 7-4 100 LAN 11-3 150 LAN 13-5

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.