FanPost

August 7th, Nationals vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Nationals and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
WAS LAN L.Hernandez vs H.Kuroda LAN 63.10% 57.66%

Notes: Vegas is a little more confident in a Dodgers victory today. The simulator likes Livan Hernandez' FIP thus the difference between the Vegas and Simulator odds. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. H.Kuroda total number of pitches: 103.5
3. Dodgers number of bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
4. L.Hernandez batters faced: 28.5
5. Dodgers total number of doubles hit: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 51 LAN 7-0 101 LAN 10-5
2 LAN 2-1 52 WAS 7-1 102 WAS 10-5
3 LAN 4-3 53 LAN 8-1 103 WAS 11-2
4 WAS 3-2 54 WAS 7-5 104 LAN 9-7
5 WAS 2-1 55 WAS 6-0 105 LAN 12-1
6 LAN 1-0 56 LAN 7-5 106 LAN 11-4
7 LAN 3-1 57 LAN 8-3 107 LAN 10-6
8 LAN 5-4 58 WAS 7-6 108 WAS 10-0
9 WAS 3-1 59 LAN 8-4 109 LAN 12-3
10 WAS 4-3 60 WAS 8-2 110 WAS 11-3
11 LAN 4-2 61 WAS 8-3 111 WAS 11-4
12 LAN 4-1 62 WAS 8-4 112 WAS 11-1
13 WAS 4-2 63 WAS 8-1 113 LAN 12-2
14 LAN 2-0 64 LAN 8-0 114 LAN 11-5
15 LAN 5-2 65 WAS 7-0 115 WAS 10-6
16 WAS 1-0 66 LAN 9-2 116 LAN 11-0
17 LAN 3-0 67 LAN 9-3 117 WAS 9-8
18 WAS 4-1 68 LAN 8-5 118 WAS 10-7
19 WAS 2-0 69 LAN 8-7 119 WAS 12-3
20 LAN 5-3 70 LAN 9-1 120 LAN 12-4
21 WAS 5-4 71 WAS 8-5 121 WAS 11-5
22 WAS 5-3 72 WAS 9-2 122 WAS 12-1
23 LAN 5-1 73 WAS 8-0 123 WAS 12-2
24 WAS 5-2 74 WAS 9-3 124 LAN 11-6
25 LAN 4-0 75 LAN 9-4 125 LAN 12-0
26 WAS 3-0 76 WAS 9-1 126 WAS 11-0
27 LAN 6-5 77 LAN 8-6 127 LAN 10-7
28 LAN 6-2 78 LAN 9-0 128 LAN 10-9
29 LAN 6-3 79 WAS 9-4 129 LAN 10-8
30 LAN 5-0 80 LAN 10-1 130 LAN 12-5
31 WAS 6-3 81 LAN 10-2 131 LAN 13-3
32 WAS 5-1 82 WAS 8-6 132 WAS 12-4
33 LAN 6-1 83 WAS 8-7 133 LAN 13-1
34 WAS 4-0 84 LAN 10-3 134 WAS 11-6
35 WAS 6-2 85 WAS 9-5 135 LAN 11-7
36 LAN 6-4 86 LAN 9-5 136 WAS 13-3
37 WAS 6-4 87 LAN 9-8 137 WAS 13-2
38 WAS 6-5 88 WAS 10-2 138 WAS 11-7
39 WAS 6-1 89 LAN 9-6 139 LAN 13-2
40 LAN 7-2 90 LAN 10-4 140 LAN 13-0
41 LAN 7-6 91 LAN 10-0 141 WAS 10-9
42 LAN 7-1 92 WAS 9-6 142 WAS 12-0
43 LAN 6-0 93 LAN 11-2 143 LAN 12-6
44 LAN 7-3 94 WAS 10-1 144 LAN 14-3
45 WAS 5-0 95 WAS 10-3 145 LAN 13-4
46 LAN 7-4 96 WAS 10-4 146 WAS 10-8
47 WAS 7-2 97 LAN 11-3 147 LAN 14-1
48 WAS 7-3 98 WAS 9-0 148 WAS 12-6
49 WAS 7-4 99 LAN 11-1 149 WAS 12-5
50 LAN 8-2 100 WAS 9-7 150 LAN 14-2

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.