FanPost

August 8th, Nationals vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Nationals and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
WAS LAN J.Marquis vs T.Lilly LAN 64.79% 54.63%

Notes: Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. T.Lilly number of pitches: 104.5
3. T.Lilly strikeouts minus J.Marquis strikeouts: 3.5
4. Dodgers runs scored minus Nationals runs scored: 1.5
5. Nationals number of relief pitchers used: 3.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 51 LAN 8-3 101 LAN 11-2
2 LAN 4-3 52 WAS 7-1 102 LAN 11-3
3 LAN 5-4 53 LAN 8-2 103 WAS 10-6
4 LAN 2-1 54 LAN 8-7 104 WAS 11-2
5 WAS 3-2 55 LAN 8-4 105 WAS 11-3
6 WAS 4-3 56 WAS 5-0 106 WAS 11-4
7 LAN 4-2 57 WAS 8-3 107 LAN 10-6
8 WAS 4-2 58 WAS 8-2 108 LAN 11-4
9 WAS 2-1 59 LAN 6-0 109 WAS 11-5
10 LAN 6-5 60 WAS 8-4 110 LAN 11-1
11 LAN 3-1 61 LAN 8-5 111 LAN 11-5
12 WAS 5-4 62 WAS 8-5 112 LAN 10-7
13 WAS 3-1 63 LAN 8-1 113 LAN 10-9
14 LAN 5-3 64 WAS 6-0 114 LAN 10-0
15 LAN 5-2 65 LAN 9-3 115 WAS 10-0
16 WAS 5-3 66 LAN 9-2 116 WAS 10-7
17 LAN 4-1 67 WAS 8-6 117 LAN 12-4
18 WAS 5-2 68 LAN 7-0 118 WAS 11-1
19 WAS 4-1 69 WAS 9-3 119 WAS 10-8
20 LAN 6-3 70 WAS 8-1 120 LAN 12-3
21 WAS 6-5 71 LAN 8-6 121 LAN 11-6
22 LAN 6-4 72 LAN 9-4 122 LAN 12-2
23 WAS 6-4 73 WAS 9-2 123 WAS 11-7
24 LAN 6-2 74 WAS 8-7 124 WAS 12-3
25 LAN 1-0 75 WAS 9-4 125 WAS 11-6
26 LAN 5-1 76 LAN 9-1 126 WAS 12-2
27 WAS 6-3 77 WAS 9-5 127 LAN 11-0
28 LAN 7-6 78 WAS 7-0 128 WAS 12-4
29 LAN 2-0 79 WAS 9-6 129 LAN 10-8
30 LAN 3-0 80 LAN 10-3 130 WAS 12-5
31 WAS 6-2 81 LAN 9-5 131 WAS 10-9
32 WAS 5-1 82 WAS 9-1 132 LAN 11-7
33 WAS 2-0 83 LAN 9-8 133 WAS 12-1
34 WAS 1-0 84 LAN 8-0 134 LAN 12-1
35 LAN 6-1 85 LAN 10-2 135 WAS 11-8
36 LAN 7-3 86 LAN 9-6 136 WAS 11-0
37 LAN 4-0 87 LAN 10-4 137 LAN 12-5
38 WAS 3-0 88 WAS 10-4 138 LAN 13-2
39 LAN 7-4 89 WAS 10-2 139 WAS 12-7
40 LAN 7-2 90 WAS 9-7 140 LAN 11-10
41 WAS 7-6 91 WAS 10-3 141 LAN 12-6
42 WAS 6-1 92 WAS 10-5 142 WAS 13-3
43 WAS 7-4 93 LAN 10-1 143 WAS 13-2
44 WAS 7-5 94 WAS 9-8 144 WAS 13-1
45 WAS 7-3 95 LAN 10-5 145 LAN 13-3
46 WAS 7-2 96 WAS 8-0 146 LAN 13-4
47 LAN 5-0 97 LAN 9-0 147 WAS 12-6
48 LAN 7-1 98 WAS 10-1 148 LAN 11-8
49 LAN 7-5 99 LAN 9-7 149 WAS 11-9
50 WAS 4-0 100 WAS 9-0 150 LAN 13-5

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.