I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:30 PM)

Notes: Both the simulator and Vegas in very good agreement on the chances of a Dodgers victory. Dust off your lucky nickel as this game is a coin toss. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 8.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 102.5
3. Dodgers hitters total bases: 11.5
4. K.Kendrick number of strikeouts: 4.5
5. HRs combined both teams: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores