August 10th, Dodgers vs Phillies - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:30 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob LAN PHI V.Padilla vs K.Kendrick PHI 50.73% 50.74%

Notes: Both the simulator and Vegas in very good agreement on the chances of a Dodgers victory. Dust off your lucky nickel as this game is a coin toss. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 8.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 102.5
3. Dodgers hitters total bases: 11.5
4. K.Kendrick number of strikeouts: 4.5
5. HRs combined both teams: 1.5

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 PHI 3-2 51 LAN 5-0 101 PHI 9-7 2 PHI 4-3 52 LAN 8-3 102 LAN 11-2 3 PHI 5-4 53 LAN 8-4 103 PHI 9-0 4 LAN 3-2 54 PHI 8-7 104 LAN 10-6 5 PHI 2-1 55 PHI 7-1 105 LAN 11-4 6 LAN 4-3 56 LAN 8-2 106 PHI 10-9 7 LAN 4-2 57 LAN 6-0 107 LAN 10-0 8 LAN 5-4 58 PHI 8-3 108 PHI 11-2 9 LAN 2-1 59 LAN 8-5 109 LAN 11-5 10 LAN 3-1 60 LAN 8-1 110 LAN 10-7 11 PHI 4-2 61 PHI 8-2 111 LAN 11-1 12 PHI 3-1 62 PHI 8-4 112 LAN 12-3 13 PHI 6-5 63 PHI 8-5 113 PHI 11-4 14 LAN 5-3 64 PHI 6-0 114 PHI 10-6 15 PHI 5-3 65 LAN 8-6 115 PHI 10-7 16 LAN 5-2 66 LAN 9-2 116 PHI 11-1 17 LAN 4-1 67 LAN 8-7 117 LAN 11-6 18 PHI 4-1 68 LAN 7-0 118 PHI 11-5 19 PHI 5-2 69 PHI 8-1 119 LAN 10-9 20 LAN 6-5 70 PHI 8-6 120 PHI 10-8 21 LAN 6-4 71 LAN 9-4 121 PHI 11-6 22 PHI 1-0 72 LAN 9-3 122 LAN 12-2 23 LAN 6-3 73 PHI 9-2 123 PHI 10-0 24 PHI 6-3 74 LAN 9-5 124 LAN 10-8 25 PHI 6-4 75 PHI 7-0 125 LAN 12-4 26 LAN 6-2 76 PHI 9-3 126 PHI 12-3 27 PHI 5-1 77 LAN 8-0 127 PHI 12-2 28 PHI 7-6 78 LAN 10-2 128 LAN 12-6 29 LAN 5-1 79 LAN 9-1 129 LAN 11-0 30 PHI 3-0 80 PHI 9-4 130 LAN 12-1 31 LAN 3-0 81 PHI 9-1 131 PHI 12-4 32 PHI 2-0 82 LAN 10-3 132 PHI 12-5 33 PHI 6-2 83 LAN 9-6 133 PHI 12-1 34 LAN 2-0 84 PHI 9-8 134 LAN 12-5 35 LAN 1-0 85 LAN 9-7 135 PHI 11-0 36 LAN 7-3 86 LAN 10-4 136 LAN 13-2 37 LAN 7-4 87 PHI 9-6 137 LAN 11-7 38 LAN 6-1 88 PHI 9-5 138 LAN 11-8 39 PHI 6-1 89 PHI 8-0 139 LAN 13-3 40 LAN 7-2 90 LAN 10-5 140 PHI 13-3 41 LAN 7-5 91 PHI 10-3 141 PHI 11-10 42 LAN 7-6 92 LAN 10-1 142 LAN 11-9 43 PHI 7-4 93 PHI 10-2 143 PHI 11-7 44 LAN 4-0 94 PHI 10-4 144 PHI 13-4 45 PHI 7-3 95 LAN 9-0 145 LAN 12-0 46 PHI 4-0 96 LAN 9-8 146 PHI 13-2 47 PHI 7-5 97 PHI 11-3 147 LAN 12-7 48 PHI 7-2 98 PHI 10-1 148 LAN 13-4 49 LAN 7-1 99 LAN 11-3 149 PHI 12-7 50 PHI 5-0 100 PHI 10-5 150 LAN 13-1

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.