FanPost

September 16th, Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN SF T.Lilly vs J.Sanchez SF 56.14% 59.24%

Notes: The simulator is giving the Giants an extra 3.1% chance of winning to the Giants, mostly due to the babip against of 0.251 that Lilly is sporting which are deflating his ERA by quite a bit. Get your game score and over/under guesses in. Over/Under jackpot is up to 25 points.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. T.Lilly total pitches thrown: 101.5
3. T.Lilly strikeouts minus J.Sanchez strikeouts: 0.5
4. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
5. Dodgers defensive errors: 0.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2 51 LAN 4-0 101 LAN 9-7
2 SF 2-1 52 SF 8-1 102 LAN 10-6
3 SF 4-3 53 LAN 7-5 103 LAN 9-8
4 SF 3-1 54 SF 8-3 104 LAN 10-1
5 LAN 3-2 55 LAN 7-6 105 SF 11-4
6 SF 5-4 56 LAN 5-0 106 LAN 11-3
7 SF 4-2 57 SF 8-4 107 SF 10-6
8 LAN 2-1 58 LAN 7-1 108 LAN 11-4
9 LAN 4-3 59 LAN 8-3 109 SF 11-0
10 SF 4-1 60 SF 8-5 110 LAN 11-5
11 SF 1-0 61 SF 8-7 111 LAN 9-0
12 SF 5-2 62 LAN 8-2 112 LAN 10-7
13 LAN 4-2 63 SF 9-2 113 SF 12-1
14 SF 5-3 64 SF 8-0 114 LAN 11-6
15 SF 3-0 65 LAN 8-4 115 LAN 11-2
16 SF 2-0 66 LAN 6-0 116 SF 12-2
17 LAN 3-1 67 LAN 8-5 117 SF 10-7
18 LAN 5-4 68 SF 9-1 118 SF 10-9
19 SF 6-5 69 LAN 8-1 119 SF 11-5
20 SF 5-1 70 SF 9-3 120 LAN 11-1
21 LAN 5-3 71 SF 8-6 121 SF 12-4
22 SF 4-0 72 LAN 8-6 122 SF 12-3
23 SF 6-3 73 LAN 9-3 123 LAN 12-4
24 LAN 5-2 74 SF 9-4 124 LAN 12-3
25 LAN 4-1 75 LAN 8-7 125 LAN 10-8
26 SF 6-2 76 SF 9-0 126 LAN 12-5
27 SF 6-1 77 LAN 9-4 127 SF 11-6
28 LAN 1-0 78 LAN 9-2 128 LAN 12-2
29 SF 6-4 79 LAN 7-0 129 SF 12-0
30 SF 5-0 80 SF 10-2 130 SF 13-3
31 LAN 6-4 81 SF 10-3 131 SF 13-1
32 LAN 2-0 82 SF 9-5 132 LAN 10-0
33 LAN 6-3 83 SF 10-1 133 LAN 10-9
34 LAN 6-5 84 LAN 9-5 134 SF 10-8
35 SF 7-2 85 LAN 9-1 135 SF 13-2
36 LAN 5-1 86 SF 9-8 136 LAN 11-7
37 LAN 6-2 87 SF 10-4 137 LAN 12-1
38 SF 7-6 88 SF 9-6 138 SF 13-0
39 SF 6-0 89 LAN 10-2 139 SF 11-7
40 SF 7-3 90 LAN 9-6 140 SF 12-5
41 SF 7-1 91 LAN 10-3 141 SF 12-7
42 LAN 3-0 92 SF 11-1 142 LAN 12-6
43 SF 7-4 93 LAN 10-4 143 SF 13-5
44 LAN 7-4 94 SF 11-2 144 LAN 13-2
45 LAN 7-3 95 LAN 10-5 145 LAN 13-3
46 LAN 6-1 96 LAN 8-0 146 SF 12-6
47 LAN 7-2 97 SF 9-7 147 LAN 11-9
48 SF 7-5 98 SF 10-0 148 LAN 13-1
49 SF 7-0 99 SF 11-3 149 LAN 12-7
50 SF 8-2 100 SF 10-5 150 LAN 13-4

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.