## September 24th, Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dumpsters and the Diamondbacks using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:35 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob LAN ARI C.Kershaw vs B.Enright LAN 55.36% 61.14%

Notes: Hard to say what kind of lineup both teams will trot out today, but needless to say - the Dodgers should be more than a 55% favorite given that Kershaw is pitching against Enright who has seen his luck run out of late. Enright has terrible peripherals and hasn't made it beyond the fourth inning in has last two starts. The season is winding down so get your game score and over/under guesses in as there is a rather large jackpot (60 points) in the over/under portion of the contest.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 8.5
2. C.Kershaw total strikeouts plus C.Kershaw wins: 8.5
3. Dodgers total bases: 10.5
4. B.Enright total batters faced: 25.5
5. Diamondbacks bullpen earned runs allowed: 1.5

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 ARI 3-2 51 LAN 9-2 101 ARI 9-1 2 ARI 4-3 52 LAN 8-5 102 LAN 12-3 3 LAN 3-2 53 ARI 7-4 103 LAN 10-7 4 LAN 4-3 54 LAN 9-1 104 ARI 9-7 5 ARI 2-1 55 ARI 7-5 105 ARI 10-2 6 LAN 4-2 56 LAN 9-3 106 LAN 11-5 7 LAN 2-1 57 ARI 7-3 107 ARI 10-3 8 LAN 3-1 58 ARI 6-1 108 LAN 11-6 9 ARI 5-4 59 ARI 4-0 109 ARI 10-5 10 LAN 4-1 60 LAN 8-0 110 ARI 10-4 11 LAN 5-2 61 ARI 7-2 111 ARI 8-0 12 LAN 5-4 62 LAN 8-6 112 ARI 10-6 13 LAN 5-3 63 LAN 9-4 113 LAN 13-1 14 LAN 5-1 64 LAN 10-2 114 LAN 12-0 15 ARI 4-2 65 ARI 8-7 115 ARI 10-9 16 ARI 6-5 66 LAN 10-1 116 LAN 13-2 17 LAN 3-0 67 LAN 9-0 117 LAN 13-3 18 LAN 6-3 68 LAN 10-3 118 LAN 12-4 19 ARI 3-1 69 LAN 9-5 119 ARI 10-7 20 LAN 6-2 70 ARI 5-0 120 LAN 10-8 21 LAN 2-0 71 ARI 8-3 121 ARI 10-1 22 ARI 5-3 72 ARI 7-1 122 ARI 11-3 23 LAN 6-1 73 ARI 8-4 123 LAN 12-5 24 LAN 4-0 74 LAN 8-7 124 LAN 11-8 25 LAN 6-4 75 ARI 8-5 125 ARI 11-4 26 LAN 1-0 76 LAN 9-6 126 ARI 11-2 27 LAN 6-5 77 ARI 8-6 127 LAN 14-2 28 ARI 1-0 78 LAN 10-4 128 ARI 10-8 29 ARI 5-2 79 ARI 8-2 129 ARI 9-0 30 LAN 7-2 80 LAN 11-3 130 LAN 12-6 31 ARI 4-1 81 LAN 11-2 131 LAN 13-0 32 LAN 5-0 82 LAN 10-0 132 ARI 11-5 33 LAN 7-1 83 ARI 6-0 133 LAN 13-4 34 LAN 7-4 84 LAN 11-1 134 LAN 10-9 35 LAN 7-3 85 LAN 10-5 135 LAN 11-7 36 LAN 6-0 86 ARI 8-1 136 LAN 13-5 37 ARI 2-0 87 LAN 10-6 137 ARI 12-2 38 LAN 8-2 88 ARI 9-8 138 ARI 11-6 39 ARI 7-6 89 ARI 9-3 139 ARI 12-3 40 ARI 6-3 90 LAN 11-4 140 LAN 14-1 41 ARI 6-4 91 LAN 9-7 141 LAN 14-3 42 LAN 7-5 92 ARI 9-2 142 ARI 11-1 43 LAN 8-3 93 ARI 9-4 143 LAN 14-4 44 LAN 8-1 94 ARI 9-5 144 ARI 12-5 45 LAN 8-4 95 LAN 12-1 145 ARI 12-4 46 ARI 3-0 96 LAN 9-8 146 ARI 10-0 47 LAN 7-0 97 ARI 7-0 147 LAN 13-6 48 ARI 5-1 98 ARI 9-6 148 ARI 11-7 49 LAN 7-6 99 LAN 12-2 149 LAN 14-5 50 ARI 6-2 100 LAN 11-0 150 LAN 12-8

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.