FanPost

September 8th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 12:01 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN SD C.Billingsley vs C.Luebke LAN 50.98% 55.26%

Notes: Should be a hiring scoring game than yesterday. The Padres have a prized prospect, a tall lengthy lefty. The Vegas opening lines have this game as a toss up for the most part. While the simulator gives the Dodgers a slight edge. Most likely the simulator and early betting public have a different opinion on the fairly unknown Padre prospect. Get your contest guesses in. 15 points will be awarded to those that guess all five over/under questions correctly. If you guess the final score correct, you will receive the number of points that the score is on the most likely outcome table. Proximity (5, 3, 1) points are awarded to those closest to the actual score in the table if nobody guesses the final score correctly (correct winning team must be picked).

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Total HRs combined both teams: 0.5
4. C.Luebke earned runs allowed: 2.5
5. Dodgers total LOB: 6.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 2-1 51 SD 7-2 101 LAN 11-4
2 SD 3-2 52 LAN 7-5 102 SD 9-6
3 LAN 2-1 53 SD 7-3 103 SD 9-7
4 LAN 3-2 54 LAN 8-0 104 LAN 9-7
5 SD 4-3 55 SD 7-4 105 LAN 10-6
6 LAN 3-1 56 SD 6-0 106 LAN 12-2
7 SD 1-0 57 SD 7-1 107 SD 10-5
8 LAN 4-3 58 LAN 7-6 108 SD 11-2
9 LAN 4-2 59 LAN 8-4 109 SD 11-1
10 LAN 2-0 60 SD 7-5 110 LAN 9-8
11 LAN 1-0 61 LAN 9-2 111 LAN 12-1
12 SD 3-1 62 LAN 9-1 112 LAN 12-3
13 LAN 4-1 63 LAN 9-3 113 SD 10-0
14 LAN 3-0 64 SD 8-2 114 SD 11-3
15 SD 5-4 65 SD 8-3 115 LAN 10-7
16 SD 4-2 66 LAN 8-5 116 SD 10-6
17 LAN 5-2 67 LAN 9-0 117 LAN 12-0
18 SD 2-0 68 SD 8-1 118 SD 11-4
19 LAN 5-3 69 SD 7-0 119 LAN 11-5
20 LAN 4-0 70 SD 8-4 120 SD 11-0
21 LAN 5-1 71 SD 8-7 121 SD 11-5
22 SD 4-1 72 LAN 8-6 122 LAN 12-4
23 LAN 5-4 73 LAN 10-1 123 SD 10-9
24 LAN 5-0 74 SD 8-5 124 LAN 13-2
25 SD 5-3 75 LAN 9-4 125 SD 12-1
26 SD 5-2 76 LAN 9-5 126 SD 12-2
27 SD 3-0 77 SD 9-3 127 SD 12-3
28 LAN 6-2 78 LAN 10-2 128 LAN 13-1
29 LAN 6-1 79 LAN 10-3 129 LAN 10-8
30 LAN 6-3 80 LAN 10-0 130 LAN 13-3
31 SD 6-5 81 SD 8-6 131 LAN 13-4
32 SD 5-1 82 SD 9-2 132 SD 12-4
33 LAN 6-4 83 SD 9-1 133 SD 11-6
34 LAN 6-0 84 SD 8-0 134 LAN 10-9
35 SD 4-0 85 LAN 8-7 135 SD 12-5
36 SD 6-3 86 SD 9-4 136 LAN 11-7
37 LAN 6-5 87 LAN 9-6 137 SD 10-7
38 LAN 7-2 88 LAN 11-2 138 LAN 11-6
39 LAN 7-1 89 LAN 10-4 139 LAN 12-5
40 SD 6-2 90 LAN 10-5 140 SD 12-0
41 SD 6-4 91 SD 9-0 141 SD 10-8
42 LAN 7-3 92 LAN 11-1 142 LAN 14-1
43 LAN 7-0 93 SD 10-3 143 LAN 13-0
44 SD 5-0 94 SD 10-2 144 SD 11-7
45 LAN 7-4 95 LAN 11-3 145 LAN 11-8
46 SD 6-1 96 SD 9-5 146 LAN 14-2
47 LAN 8-2 97 SD 10-1 147 LAN 14-3
48 SD 7-6 98 SD 10-4 148 SD 13-3
49 LAN 8-1 99 SD 9-8 149 SD 13-4
50 LAN 8-3 100 LAN 11-0 150 SD 12-6

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.