I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 12:25 AM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Chad Billingsley | Tim Lincecum | SF | 62.55% | 6.4 | 63.76% | 6.86 |
| 1 SF 3-2 | 51 LAN 5-0 | 101 LAN 10-1 | ||
| 2 SF 2-1 | 52 SF 7-5 | 102 SF 12-3 | ||
| 3 SF 4-3 | 53 LAN 7-3 | 103 LAN 10-2 | ||
| 4 SF 1-0 | 54 LAN 7-2 | 104 SF 9-7 | ||
| 5 SF 3-1 | 55 SF 9-1 | 105 LAN 10-4 | ||
| 6 LAN 2-1 | 56 LAN 7-4 | 106 LAN 9-0 | ||
| 7 LAN 3-2 | 57 LAN 7-5 | 107 SF 12-0 | ||
| 8 SF 2-0 | 58 SF 9-2 | 108 SF 10-6 | ||
| 9 SF 4-2 | 59 LAN 7-6 | 109 SF 13-1 | ||
| 10 SF 5-4 | 60 LAN 7-1 | 110 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 11 SF 3-0 | 61 SF 9-0 | 111 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 12 SF 4-1 | 62 SF 8-4 | 112 SF 12-4 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-3 | 63 LAN 6-0 | 113 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 14 LAN 3-1 | 64 SF 9-3 | 114 SF 11-5 | ||
| 15 SF 5-2 | 65 SF 8-7 | 115 SF 13-2 | ||
| 16 LAN 1-0 | 66 LAN 8-2 | 116 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 17 LAN 4-2 | 67 SF 10-2 | 117 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 18 SF 4-0 | 68 LAN 8-4 | 118 SF 10-7 | ||
| 19 SF 5-1 | 69 SF 10-1 | 119 SF 13-0 | ||
| 20 SF 5-3 | 70 SF 8-5 | 120 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 21 LAN 2-0 | 71 LAN 8-3 | 121 SF 11-6 | ||
| 22 LAN 4-1 | 72 SF 9-4 | 122 SF 12-5 | ||
| 23 SF 5-0 | 73 SF 10-0 | 123 SF 13-3 | ||
| 24 SF 6-5 | 74 LAN 8-5 | 124 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-4 | 75 LAN 7-0 | 125 SF 10-9 | ||
| 26 LAN 5-3 | 76 LAN 8-1 | 126 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 27 SF 6-1 | 77 SF 10-3 | 127 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 28 LAN 5-2 | 78 LAN 9-3 | 128 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 29 LAN 3-0 | 79 SF 11-1 | 129 SF 13-4 | ||
| 30 SF 6-2 | 80 LAN 8-6 | 130 SF 14-1 | ||
| 31 SF 6-3 | 81 SF 11-2 | 131 SF 10-8 | ||
| 32 SF 6-0 | 82 SF 8-6 | 132 SF 14-2 | ||
| 33 SF 7-1 | 83 LAN 9-2 | 133 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 34 LAN 5-1 | 84 SF 10-4 | 134 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 35 SF 6-4 | 85 LAN 9-1 | 135 SF 14-3 | ||
| 36 SF 7-2 | 86 LAN 9-4 | 136 SF 11-7 | ||
| 37 LAN 6-4 | 87 SF 9-5 | 137 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 38 LAN 4-0 | 88 SF 11-3 | 138 SF 11-8 | ||
| 39 LAN 6-3 | 89 LAN 8-7 | 139 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 40 SF 7-0 | 90 SF 11-0 | 140 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 41 LAN 6-5 | 91 SF 9-6 | 141 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 42 SF 7-3 | 92 LAN 8-0 | 142 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 43 LAN 6-2 | 93 LAN 9-5 | 143 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 44 SF 7-4 | 94 SF 12-2 | 144 SF 11-10 | ||
| 45 LAN 6-1 | 95 SF 9-8 | 145 SF 14-0 | ||
| 46 SF 8-1 | 96 LAN 9-6 | 146 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 47 SF 7-6 | 97 SF 12-1 | 147 SF 13-5 | ||
| 48 SF 8-2 | 98 LAN 10-3 | 148 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 49 SF 8-0 | 99 SF 11-4 | 149 SF 12-6 | ||
| 50 SF 8-3 | 100 SF 10-5 | 150 LAN 11-0 |
Contest Rules: Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below. You must also give confidence points to each guess. The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in. So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1. If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess. A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points. The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly. If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners. Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month. You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above. The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points. If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table. Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points. The starting pitchers listed in my table must be the actual starters otherwise only the game score portion of the contest is valid.
Leaderboard:
1. keithc13 62
2t. BFDC 27
2t. Riffraffselbow 27
4. Hollywood Joe 26
5. Xeifrank 22
6. matthewmafa 12
7. StolenMonkey86 3
Over/Under Questions:
A. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
B. Chad Billingsley game FIP: 3.778
C. Tim Lincecum game FIP: 2.638
D. Andre Ethier plus James Loney number of doubles: 0.5
E. Tim Lincecum strikeouts minus total number of Dodgers hits in game: 1.5
Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3
Link to spreadsheet with all guesses and results.
