I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:35 AM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Chad Billingsley | Jason Hammel | COL | 53.92% | 8.9 | 55.30% | 9.65 |
| 1 COL 4-3 | 51 COL 8-2 | 101 COL 11-2 | ||
| 2 COL 5-4 | 52 LAN 8-3 | 102 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 3 COL 3-2 | 53 LAN 8-2 | 103 LAN 7-0 | ||
| 4 COL 6-5 | 54 COL 1-0 | 104 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 5 LAN 4-3 | 55 COL 9-3 | 105 COL 10-8 | ||
| 6 LAN 5-4 | 56 COL 7-1 | 106 COL 10-1 | ||
| 7 COL 7-6 | 57 COL 2-0 | 107 COL 11-6 | ||
| 8 LAN 3-2 | 58 COL 3-0 | 108 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 9 COL 4-2 | 59 LAN 7-1 | 109 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 10 COL 2-1 | 60 LAN 9-3 | 110 COL 8-0 | ||
| 11 COL 5-3 | 61 LAN 3-0 | 111 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 12 LAN 4-2 | 62 COL 9-4 | 112 COL 12-4 | ||
| 13 LAN 5-3 | 63 COL 9-2 | 113 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 14 LAN 6-5 | 64 COL 9-5 | 114 COL 11-1 | ||
| 15 COL 6-4 | 65 LAN 9-4 | 115 LAN 8-0 | ||
| 16 COL 6-3 | 66 LAN 9-5 | 116 COL 12-3 | ||
| 17 COL 5-2 | 67 LAN 2-0 | 117 COL 12-2 | ||
| 18 LAN 6-4 | 68 COL 4-0 | 118 COL 12-5 | ||
| 19 COL 3-1 | 69 LAN 9-6 | 119 LAN 10-1 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-2 | 70 COL 8-1 | 120 COL 11-10 | ||
| 21 LAN 6-3 | 71 COL 9-6 | 121 COL 9-0 | ||
| 22 LAN 3-1 | 72 LAN 4-0 | 122 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 23 COL 8-7 | 73 COL 10-3 | 123 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 24 LAN 2-1 | 74 COL 10-4 | 124 COL 11-7 | ||
| 25 COL 4-1 | 75 LAN 9-2 | 125 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 26 COL 7-4 | 76 LAN 9-8 | 126 COL 13-3 | ||
| 27 LAN 7-6 | 77 LAN 9-7 | 127 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 28 LAN 7-4 | 78 COL 9-7 | 128 COL 11-8 | ||
| 29 COL 6-2 | 79 LAN 8-1 | 129 COL 13-4 | ||
| 30 LAN 4-1 | 80 LAN 1-0 | 130 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 31 LAN 7-5 | 81 COL 5-0 | 131 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 32 COL 7-5 | 82 COL 10-9 | 132 COL 13-2 | ||
| 33 LAN 6-2 | 83 LAN 5-0 | 133 LAN 9-0 | ||
| 34 COL 7-3 | 84 COL 10-2 | 134 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 35 LAN 7-3 | 85 COL 6-0 | 135 COL 11-9 | ||
| 36 COL 5-1 | 86 COL 10-5 | 136 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 37 LAN 5-1 | 87 LAN 6-0 | 137 COL 10-0 | ||
| 38 COL 7-2 | 88 LAN 10-3 | 138 COL 12-7 | ||
| 39 COL 8-5 | 89 LAN 10-5 | 139 COL 12-6 | ||
| 40 COL 8-3 | 90 COL 9-1 | 140 COL 12-1 | ||
| 41 LAN 7-2 | 91 COL 11-3 | 141 LAN 11-9 | ||
| 42 COL 9-8 | 92 LAN 10-4 | 142 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 43 COL 8-4 | 93 COL 10-6 | 143 COL 13-5 | ||
| 44 LAN 6-1 | 94 LAN 9-1 | 144 COL 13-6 | ||
| 45 COL 8-6 | 95 COL 10-7 | 145 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 46 LAN 8-6 | 96 LAN 10-2 | 146 LAN 11-10 | ||
| 47 COL 6-1 | 97 COL 7-0 | 147 COL 14-4 | ||
| 48 LAN 8-5 | 98 LAN 10-6 | 148 LAN 12-7 | ||
| 49 LAN 8-7 | 99 COL 11-4 | 149 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 50 LAN 8-4 | 100 COL 11-5 | 150 COL 11-0 |
Contest Rules: Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below. You must also give confidence points to each guess. The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in. So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1. If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess. A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points. The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly. If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners. Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month. You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above. The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points. If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table. Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points. The starting pitchers listed in my table must be the actual starters otherwise only the game score portion of the contest is valid.
Leaderboard:
1t. keithc13 14
1t. Xeifrank 14
3. Hollywood Joe 13
4t. BFDC 12
4t. matthewmafa 12
6. StolenMonkey86 3
Over/Under Questions:
A. Dodgers runs minus Rockies runs: 0.5
B. Casey Blake number of RBIs: 0.5
C. Chad Billingsley pitch count: 95.5
D. Dodgers starting shortstop number of at-bats: 4.5
E. Jason Hammel strikeouts plus HRs allowed: 5.5
Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3
