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Up next on the salary arbitration projections is Juan Nicasio, who the Dodgers acquired from the Rockies on Monday.
Nicasio was a candidate to be non-tendered in Colorado, and in fact was designated for assignment on Nov. 20. He made $2.025 million as a Super Two in arbitration in 2014, based on his work exclusively as a starter. But 2014 saw Nicasio struggle, get kicked out of the Rockies rotation, and he even spent six weeks in the minor leagues.
Nicasio was 6-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 5.45 FIP overall in 94 innings in 2014, but was better in relief, with a 3.48 ERA, 4.73 FIP and a 21.3-percent strikeout rate.
He is a weird case because his likely role going forward, as a reliever, is different than his previous role, which brought him a higher salary last season. With the tender deadline of Dec. 2 approaching, a non-tender wouldn't be surprising if the two sides can't work out a deal by Tuesday. But an agreement seems the most likely outcome here.
Here are a few pitchers who like Nicasio bounced a bit between starting and relief, and at similar service times.
| Recent pitchers comparable to Juan Nicasio | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | Years | Svc Time | IP | W-L | BB | K | ERA | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
| Juan Nicasio |
2011-14 | 3.084* | 381 | 21-22 | 135 | 294 | 5.03 | 89 | 4.39 | 1.3 | 4.6 | tbd |
| Tommy Hunter |
2008-12 | 3.066 | 469 | 33-24 | 111 | 263 | 4.77 | 92 | 5.03 | 3.7 | 3.1 | $1,820,000 |
| Alexi Ogando | 2010-13 | 3.114 | 381 | 26-13 | 117 | 303 | 3.12 | 139 | 3.79 | 9.3 | 6.6 | $2,625,000 |
| Esmil Rogers |
2009-13 | 3.135 | 375 | 16-21 | 149 | 311 | 5.52 | 79 | 4.40 | (2.2) | 2.7 | $1,850,000 |
| Brian Matusz |
2009-13 | 3.156* | 419 | 24-34 | 158 | 350 | 5.13 | 82 | 4.49 | 2.3 | 4.5 | $2,400,000 |
| *Super Two | ||||||||||||
Hunter, like Nicasio in 2014, had a hybrid role in 2012, though leaned more toward starting with 20 starts and 13 relief appearances. Hunter that season had a 5.45 ERA and 5.75 FIP in 134 innings, with 77 strikeouts and 27 walks, fairly similar to Nicasio.
Ogando has the same number of innings pitched as Nicasio, but wasn't a Super Two. Ogando also easily outpaces Nicasio in performance both in career and seasonal performance. Ogando in 2013 was 7-4 with a 3.11 ERA, with 72 strikeouts and 41 walks in 104 innings.
Matusz was a Super Two after 2012, and saw a 50-percent raise from $1.6 million to $2.4 million after pitching a solid season in relief for Baltimore in 2013 — 51 innings, 50 strikeouts, 16 walks, 3.53 ERA — much better than Nicasio's 2014 campaign.
2015 guess
Given Ogando's superior numbers, it's hard to justify a salary for Nicasio as high as $2.625 million. The folks at MLB Trade Rumors projected $2.4 million for Nicasio.
Matusz seems like a better comp, as a Super Two with similar career numbers, though with a better launch season and a reduced role for Nicasio I'll guess slightly less, at $2.25 million.