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Up next on our look at Dodgers eligible for salary arbitration is infielder Justin Turner, who is due for a nice, big raise after a stellar 2014 season.
Turner has four years, 45 days of major league service time, but this is his first time going through the salary arbitration process. He was eligible for arbitration after 2013, but was non-tendered by the Mets, making him a free agent.
The Dodgers happily scooped up the gift, signing the former Cal State Fullerton star to a minor league deal. Turner made the club out of spring training and earned a $1 million base salary, plus another $100,000 in performance bonuses. He proved to be a force at the plate, hitting .340/.404/.493 with 21 doubles and seven home runs in 109 games, taking over capably at third base twice when Juan Uribe was injured, and filled in at second base and shortstop on occasion as well.
Here is a look at some infielders comparable to Turner and their career numbers. It is the same list used for Darwin Barney, with a few additions:
| Comparable arbitration-eligible infielders (career) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infielder | Years | Svc Time | PA | BA/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | wOBA | wRC+ | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
| Justin Turner |
2009-2014 | 4.045 | 1,248 | .281/.344/.395 | 108 | .328 | 110 | 4.9 | 4.0 | tbd |
| Gordon Beckham | 2009-2013 | 4.123 | 2,475 | .249/.314/.380 | 85 | .308 | 86 | 5.6 | 5.4 | $4,175,000 |
| Daniel Murphy | 2008-2013 | 4.109 | 2,439 | .290/.333/.424 | 108 | .329 | 108 | 8.9 | 9.0 | $5,700,000 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 2008-2013 | 4.133 | 1,594 | .228/.304/.360 | 85 | .296 | 86 | 7.7 | 6.0 | $1,475,000 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | 2007-2012 | 4.066 | 1,838 | .267/.329/.343 | 81 | .301 | 82 | 3.6 | 3.4 | $2,600,000 |
| Mike Aviles | 2008-2012 | 4.091 | 1,871 | .277/.308/.408 | 92 | .312 | 89 | 8.0 | 6.3 | $1,750,000* |
| Jed Lowrie | 2008-2012 | 4.111 | 1,307 | .250/.326/.417 | 97 | .326 | 98 | 5.3 | 5.8 | $2,400,000 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 2006-2011 | 4.135 | 2,208 | .281/.337/.389 | 97 | .320 | 94 | 7.2 | 7.0 | $3,150,000 |
| Martin Prado | 2006-2011 | 4.105 | 2,109 | .293/.341/.434 | 108 | .340 | 109 | 10.7 | 8.6 | $4,750,000 |
| *Part of two-year contract, signing bonus spread over both years of deal | ||||||||||
Turner is a tough one to analyze, with the bulk of his career wins above replacement coming in one year. His launch season of 2014 stands out among these same players:
| Single-season arbitration-eligible infielders | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infielder | Year | PA | BA/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | wOBA | wRC+ | rWAR | fWAR | Salaryn | Salaryn+1 | Increase |
| Justin Turner |
2014 | 322 | .340/.404/.493 | 155 | .394 | 157 | 4.3 | 3.2 | $1,000,000 | tbd | tbd |
| Gordon Beckham | 2013 | 408 | .267/.322/.372 | 89 | .306 | 88 | 0.8 | 1.0 | $2,975,000 | $4,175,000 | +40.3% |
| Daniel Murphy |
2013 | 697 | .286/.319/.415 | 108 | .320 | 107 | 1.5 | 3.0 | $2,925,000 | $5,700,000 | +94.9% |
| Sean Rodriguez | 2013 | 222 | .246/.320/.395 | 97 | .313 | 101 | 0.6 | 1.1 | $1,000,000 | $1,475,000 | +47.5% |
| Emilio Bonifacio | 2012 | 274 | .258/.330/.316 | 76 | .290 | 79 | 0.6 | 0.4 | $2,200,000 | $2,600,000 | +18.2% |
| Mike Aviles |
2012 | 546 | .250/.282/.381 | 77 | .288 | 75 | 2.5 | 1.5 | $1,200,000 | $1,750,000* | +45.8% |
| Jed Lowrie |
2012 | 387 | .244/.331/.438 | 107 | .336 | 110 | 2.0 | 2.5 | $1,150,000 | $2,400,000 | +108.7% |
| Alberto Callaspo | 2011 | 536 | .288/.366/.375 | 112 | .328 | 109 | 3.4 | 3.5 | $2,000,000 | $3,150,000 | +57.5% |
| Martin Prado | 2011 | 590 | .260/.302/.385 | 87 | .302 | 89 | 1.8 | 1.3 | $3,100,000 | $4,750,000 | +53.2% |
| *Part of two-year contract, signing bonus spread over both years of deal | |||||||||||
The best comps for Turner just might be Lowrie for career numbers, or Alberto Callaspo for a launch season, which gives us a nice range of $2.4 million to $3.15 million.
2015 guess
MLB Trade Rumors projected a salary for Turner of $2.2 million, though given his strong season I think Turner should be able to at least match Lowrie. So I'll guess $2.6 million for Turner in 2015.
These arbitration studies are made much easier thanks to Baseball-Reference, Cot's Baseball Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs.