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What to expect from Scott Kazmir in 2016

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

LOS ANGELES -- The Dodgers will have Scott Kazmir in their starting rotation for at least one year, signing the left-hander on Wednesday to a three-year, $48 million contract that includes an opt-out clause after 2016. But just what are the Dodgers getting in Kazmir?

The southpaw will turn 32 on Jan. 24, and over the last three seasons has averaged 31 starts, 177 innings and 160 strikeouts per year, while putting up a collective 3.54 ERA during that span. He averaged between 2.0 (Baseball-Reference) and 2.8 (FanGraphs) Wins Above Replacement over the last three years.

Kazmir has been relatively healthy over the last three seasons, with his only trip to the disabled list a 15-day stint in April 2013 with a right rib cage strain, while with the Indians.

But what about 2016? Dan Szymborski of ESPN tweeted out his own ZiPS projections for the entirety of the three-year contract:

We can also see the projections from Steamer (on FanGraphs) and Marcel (on Baseball-Reference) to paint a picture of what Kazmir's 2016 season might look like.

2016 Scott Kazmir projections
Marcel 170 159 76 68 18 52 149 3.60 1.241
Steamer 169 161 77 71 19 49 149 3.77 1.242
ZiPS 168⅔ 147 61 61 17 45 162 3.25 1.138
Average 169⅓ 156 71 67 18 49 153 3.55 1.207

For what it's worth, the ZiPS projection translates into 3.3 WAR, while the Steamer projection is good for 2.5 WAR.