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Dodgers 2015 profile: Brandon Beachy

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Photo: Jon SooHoo | LA Dodgers

Beachy in 10 words or less

Former future front-line pitcher on the comeback trail.

Question

Can Beachy surpass the success had by fellow two-time Tommy John survivor Chris Capuano? The group of pitchers with success after two Tommy John surgeries is a small list, and Capuano's relative health since his second procedure, in 2008, makes him stand out.

Capuano has a 91 ERA+ in 653⅓ innings after his second procedure, compared to a 101 ERA+ in 711⅔ innings before. Beachy has a 121 career ERA+ in 267⅔ innings, so he's coming from a higher production point.

Quotable

"It's not a fun process. It's definitely a test of patience, perseverance. Going through it a second time was harder, definitely, mentally," Beachy said of his recovery. "But it feels worth it at this point, and it's going to feel even more so that way a few months from now. No doubt in my mind."

"If you just talk about a ceiling for a guy like this, even before he got hurt just based on his big league performance he's a mid-rotation or better guy," said general manager Farhan Zaidi. "That upside is very appealing to us."

Trivia

His 169 strikeouts in 2011 (in only 141⅔ innings) were the most by a Braves rookie since the estimable Bill Stemmeyer struck out 239 in 1886 for the Boston Beaneaters.

Contract status

Beachy signed a one-year deal worth $2.75 million guaranteed, plus a club option for 2016 worth at least $3 million and possibly up to $8 million if all incentives are reached. Beachy has four years, 14 days of service time, and three option years remaining.

Stats

Year Age IP BB% K% ERA FIP
2011 24 141⅔ 7.8% 28.6% 3.68 3.19
2012 25 81 9.1% 21.3% 2.00 3.49
2013 26 30 3.3% 19.2% 4.50 4.08
2015 projections - Age 28 season
Source IP BB% K% ERA FIP
Bill James 148 9.0% 23.9% 3.28 3.73
PECOTA 38⅔ 6.9% 25.2% 2.94 3.10
Steamer 67 7.3% 18.5% 4.18 4.18
ZiPS 58 9.9% 17.8% 4.34 4.70

2015 outlook

The Dodgers are taking it slow with Beachy, which likely means a return after the All-Star break, maybe even August. Just because there always seems to be an opening in the rotation no matter the plan, I'll guess Beachy makes 11 starts for the Dodgers and puts up a 3.48 ERA.

What is your guess for 2015? Be sure to enter those in the comments.