What he’s good at right now: Mitchell was one of the more toolsy and projectable prep outfielders in this draft. He’s shown a plus arm and will flash plus speed. His hit tool is above average as well.
What he can be good at in the future: As he fills out, Hansen should have at least average power, but has the frame and leverage for better. If the power comes around, he has the possibility of having five average or better tools.
What does he need to work on: Hansen’s swing is geared to hit for contact and he will have to develop loft for power. He’s a list 6’4 but sub-200 lbs. so physical maturation and strength will be a priority.
Carry tool: While he’s more a sum of his parts guy, Hansen’s ability to hit for average could become his career tool as he adds strength to his frame.
Biggest weakness: A lack of physicality and just the general rawness you might expect from a toolsy high school outfielder. You could possibly make the case that getting him to sign may be his biggest weakness, but taking him this early should suggest the Dodgers know his number.
ETA: He’s raw, but he’s hit on the summer circuit and the hope is he’s ready to start full season ball next year. He’s got enough tools that he could take off at any time, but a conservative estimate would be level by level, and a 2019 ETA.
Realistic best case scenario: Hansen has the arm and speed to be a defensive plus in right field, but you have to dream on the power to project him as an All Star performer. He’s got the potential to blow past this realistic ceiling, but I can see him hitting .280 with 20-25 home runs in his peak, with potential for 15 stolen bases and plus defense.
Wrap: The hit tool is generally the safest tool to bet on, especially when it comes with the chance for pop. In Hayes, the Dodgers are likely taking an under-slot player that still gives them the upside to develop into a first division starter, while giving them flexibility to take a few signability guys down the board. As a tier 55 player, Hayes was selected in line with his ability, so despite likely being a cheaper pick, he wasn’t over-drafted.
After taking the sliding Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser with their first picks, you probably wouldn’t expect the Dodgers to go after one of the possibly tougher signs in the Stanford commit Hansen. The Dodgers have selected him early enough to suggest they have a plan to sign him and the others, though it may come at the expense of some budget picks on Tuesday.