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Justin Turner has had two very productive seasons in Los Angeles, including grabbing hold of the starting third baseman job in 2015. He is eligible for salary arbitration and due a hefty raise in 2016.
Turner's case is a little odd, in that he was non-tendered after 2013 by the Mets when he was first eligible for salary arbitration. The Dodgers scooped him up on a minor-league deal, with Turner earning $1 million in base salary in his first season with Los Angeles.
That artificially lowered Turner's start in arbitration, which could affect the other two years through the process. Turner made $2.5 million in 2015, and heads into 2016 with five years, 45 days of service time, one year from free agency.
Here is a look at some comparable infielders to Turner in both service time and performance, with a look at both their career numbers and launch years. We looked at some of the same players last year, too.
| Comparable arbitration-eligible infielders (career) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infielder | Years | Svc Time | PA | BA/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | wOBA | wRC+ | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
| Justin Turner |
2009-2015 | 5.045 | 1,687 | .284/.351/.419 | 116 | .339 | 118 | 8.9 | 7.7 | tbd |
| David Freese | 2009-2014 | 5.028 | 2,266 | .280/.348/.417 | 112 | .338 | 116 | 7.2 | 9.1 | $6,425,000 |
| Casey McGehee | 2008-2014 | 5.028 | 2,732 | .264/.324/.400 | 97 | .318 | 96 | 2.7 | 5.4 | $4,800,000 |
| Jed Lowrie | 2008-2013 | 5.111 | 1,969 | .264/.332/.427 | 104 | .332 | 105 | 7.3 | 9.4 | $5,250,000 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 2006-2012 | 5.135 | 2,728 | .275/.335/.384 | 97 | .317 | 95 | 10.6 | 9.2 | $4,100,000 |
| Martin Prado | 2006-2012 | 5.105 | 2,799 | .295/.345/.435 | 109 | .341 | 111 | 16.2 | 13.6 | $7,000,000 |
| *First year of four-year contract | ||||||||||
Freese looks like a pretty close comp for Turner, though with roughly a full season's worth of plate appearances more on his ledger. In career numbers, Lowrie might be the closest in both performance and playing time trough five years of service.
These comps are also a nice reminder that Alberto Callaspo was once better than he showed in 2015.
Turner has the bulk of his value coming in the last two seasons, so let's look at these same comparable players in their launch seasons heading into arbitration with five years of service time.:
| Single-season arbitration-eligible infielders | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infielder | Year | PA | BA/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | wOBA | wRC+ | rWAR | fWAR | Salaryn | Salaryn+1 | Increase |
| Justin Turner |
2015 | 439 | .294/.370/.471 | 138 | .371 | 141 | 3.9 | 4.0 | $2,500,000 | tbd | tbd |
| David Freese | 2014 | 408 | .267/.322/.372 | 89 | .306 | 88 | 0.8 | 1.0 | $5,050,000 | $6,425,000 | +27.2% |
| Casey Mcgehee |
2014 | 691 | .287/.355/.357 | 101 | .319 | 102 | 1.1 | 1.4 | $1,100,000 | $4,800,000 | +336.3% |
| Jed Lowrie |
2013 | 662 | .290/.344/.446 | 119 | .345 | 120 | 2.0 | 3.5 | $2,400,000 | $5,250,000 | +118.8% |
| Alberto Callaspo | 2012 | 520 | .252/.331/.361 | 96 | .308 | 98 | 3.4 | 3.1 | $3,150,000 | $4,100,000 | +30.2% |
| Martin Prado | 2012 | 690 | .301/.359/.438 | 114 | .345 | 117 | 5.5 | 5.3 | $4,750,000 | $7,000,000* | +47.4% |
| *First year of four-year contract | |||||||||||
McGehee played in Japan in 2013, which deflated his 2014 salary coming back to MLB. Turner stands out with his 2015 production, with the only other player to top him (Prado) receiving a four-year, $40 million deal, then with Atlanta.
2016 guess
MLB Trade Rumors projected a salary for Turner of $5.3 million. I think Lowrie remains the best comp for Turner above, with Turner's strong 2015 season giving him a bump over Lowrie's 2014 salary of $5.25 million. I think Turner also beats the year-to-year increase for Lowrie from his fourth to fifth years of service, so I will guess a 2016 salary of $5.6 million for Turner, a 124 percent increase over 2015.
These arbitration studies are made much easier thanks to Baseball-Reference, Cot's Baseball Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs.