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With filing and exchange dates scheduled for next week, up next on our Dodgers salary arbitration preview is left-handed relief pitcher Luis Avilan, set to begin his third season in Los Angeles.
This is the second time through salary arbitration for Avilan, though he doesn’t yet have four years of major league service time. Last winter he had three years, 77 days of time, but thanks to spending over half of 2016 in Triple-A Oklahoma City the left-hander is at three years, 146 days of service time now, just 26 days shy of four full years.
It doesn’t put Avilan in a new class of players to whom to compare, but he might be closer to a Super Two in that regard, starting from a higher salary base than others.
We looked at comparable pitchers to Avilan last year, and my guess of $1.15 million was way off, as he earned $1.39 million in 2016.
Here are those same comparable pitchers, plus a new batch from last winter, all with over three years but not quite four years of service time.
Non-closing relievers with 3 years of service time
| Pitcher | Years | Service | G | IP | BB | K | ERA | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | Years | Service | G | IP | BB | K | ERA | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
| Luis Avilan | 2012-2016 | 3.146 | 268 | 217.3 | 78 | 173 | 2.98 | 128 | 3.34 | 3.4 | 1.6 | TBD |
| Bryan Shaw | 2011-2014 | 3.081 | 247 | 239.0 | 82 | 202 | 3.01 | 131 | 3.11 | 3.0 | 1.8 | $1,550,000 |
| Justin Wilson* | 2012-2015 | 3.035 | 210 | 199.3 | 81 | 193 | 3.03 | 124 | 3.22 | 2.9 | 2.4 | $1,525,000 |
| Tim Collins* | 2011-2014 | 3.097 | 228 | 211.0 | 121 | 220 | 3.54 | 117 | 3.89 | 1.8 | 0.8 | $1,475,000 |
| Rex Brothers* | 2011-2015 | 3.131^ | 286 | 242.3 | 140 | 278 | 3.42 | 132 | 3.68 | 5.0 | 2.0 | $1,420,000 |
| Dale Thayer | 2009-2014 | 3.071 | 226 | 214.0 | 51 | 188 | 3.36 | 106 | 3.64 | 1.7 | 1.1 | $1,375,000 |
| Bryan Morris | 2012-2015 | 3.011 | 187 | 197.3 | 80 | 140 | 2.78 | 133 | 4.17 | 2.6 | -1.1 | $1,350,000 |
| Adam Ottavino | 2010-2014 | 3.087 | 184 | 244.7 | 90 | 241 | 4.05 | 110 | 3.64 | 3.8 | 2.3 | $1,300,000 |
| David Carpenter | 2011-2014 | 3.016 | 188 | 186.7 | 65 | 201 | 3.62 | 105 | 3.42 | 1.8 | 1.5 | $1,300,000 |
| Jake Diekman* | 2012-2015 | 3.049 | 217 | 195.0 | 102 | 245 | 3.65 | 107 | 3.04 | 0.8 | 2.5 | $1,255,000 |
| Brad Brach | 2011-2015 | 3.063 | 217 | 246.3 | 122 | 260 | 3.25 | 118 | 3.96 | 2.5 | 0.6 | $1,250,000 |
| Vinnie Pestano | 2010-2014 | 3.054 | 204 | 191.0 | 79 | 231 | 2.83 | 138 | 3.44 | 4.6 | 2.4 | $1,150,000 |
| Fernando Abad* | 2010-2014 | 3.073 | 196 | 179.7 | 58 | 148 | 3.61 | 108 | 4.08 | 1.6 | 0.6 | $1,087,500 |
| Brandon Kintzler | 2010-2014 | 3.101 | 165 | 174.0 | 46 | 127 | 3.26 | 120 | 3.63 | 1.8 | 0.9 | $1,075,000 |
| Aaron Loup* | 2012-2015 | 3.083 | 228 | 211.0 | 52 | 176 | 3.11 | 130 | 3.36 | 3.1 | 2.1 | $1,050,000 |
It’s more of the same, with a rough salary range of $1-1.55 million for pitchers of Avilan’s ilk. It’s hard to see Avilan getting a pay cut from his $1.39 million, because even though he only pitched 27 games in 2016 he did pitch well while in the majors, posting a 3.20 ERA while holding opposing batters to just .176/.300/.191 against him.
2017 guess
MLB Trade Rumors projects $1.5 million for Avilan in 2017, and since I guessed low last year I go a tick higher at $1.6 million, surpassing what Justin Wilson got in 2016.