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Luis Avilan 2017 salary arbitration preview

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Avilan made $1.39 million in 2016

Los Angeles Dodgers v New York Yankees Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

With filing and exchange dates scheduled for next week, up next on our Dodgers salary arbitration preview is left-handed relief pitcher Luis Avilan, set to begin his third season in Los Angeles.

This is the second time through salary arbitration for Avilan, though he doesn’t yet have four years of major league service time. Last winter he had three years, 77 days of time, but thanks to spending over half of 2016 in Triple-A Oklahoma City the left-hander is at three years, 146 days of service time now, just 26 days shy of four full years.

It doesn’t put Avilan in a new class of players to whom to compare, but he might be closer to a Super Two in that regard, starting from a higher salary base than others.

We looked at comparable pitchers to Avilan last year, and my guess of $1.15 million was way off, as he earned $1.39 million in 2016.

Here are those same comparable pitchers, plus a new batch from last winter, all with over three years but not quite four years of service time.

Non-closing relievers with 3 years of service time

Pitcher Years Service G IP BB K ERA ERA+ FIP rWAR fWAR Salary
Pitcher Years Service G IP BB K ERA ERA+ FIP rWAR fWAR Salary
Luis Avilan 2012-2016 3.146 268 217.3 78 173 2.98 128 3.34 3.4 1.6 TBD
Bryan Shaw 2011-2014 3.081 247 239.0 82 202 3.01 131 3.11 3.0 1.8 $1,550,000
Justin Wilson* 2012-2015 3.035 210 199.3 81 193 3.03 124 3.22 2.9 2.4 $1,525,000
Tim Collins* 2011-2014 3.097 228 211.0 121 220 3.54 117 3.89 1.8 0.8 $1,475,000
Rex Brothers* 2011-2015 3.131^ 286 242.3 140 278 3.42 132 3.68 5.0 2.0 $1,420,000
Dale Thayer 2009-2014 3.071 226 214.0 51 188 3.36 106 3.64 1.7 1.1 $1,375,000
Bryan Morris 2012-2015 3.011 187 197.3 80 140 2.78 133 4.17 2.6 -1.1 $1,350,000
Adam Ottavino 2010-2014 3.087 184 244.7 90 241 4.05 110 3.64 3.8 2.3 $1,300,000
David Carpenter 2011-2014 3.016 188 186.7 65 201 3.62 105 3.42 1.8 1.5 $1,300,000
Jake Diekman* 2012-2015 3.049 217 195.0 102 245 3.65 107 3.04 0.8 2.5 $1,255,000
Brad Brach 2011-2015 3.063 217 246.3 122 260 3.25 118 3.96 2.5 0.6 $1,250,000
Vinnie Pestano 2010-2014 3.054 204 191.0 79 231 2.83 138 3.44 4.6 2.4 $1,150,000
Fernando Abad* 2010-2014 3.073 196 179.7 58 148 3.61 108 4.08 1.6 0.6 $1,087,500
Brandon Kintzler 2010-2014 3.101 165 174.0 46 127 3.26 120 3.63 1.8 0.9 $1,075,000
Aaron Loup* 2012-2015 3.083 228 211.0 52 176 3.11 130 3.36 3.1 2.1 $1,050,000
*left-handed pitcher; ^Super Two

It’s more of the same, with a rough salary range of $1-1.55 million for pitchers of Avilan’s ilk. It’s hard to see Avilan getting a pay cut from his $1.39 million, because even though he only pitched 27 games in 2016 he did pitch well while in the majors, posting a 3.20 ERA while holding opposing batters to just .176/.300/.191 against him.

2017 guess

MLB Trade Rumors projects $1.5 million for Avilan in 2017, and since I guessed low last year I go a tick higher at $1.6 million, surpassing what Justin Wilson got in 2016.