Notes & thoughts from World Series Game 5

Trying to pick up the pieces after the marathon Game 5, here are some notes and thoughts from Sunday’s loss by the Dodgers to the Astros in Houston.

Bellinger bomb

Cody Bellinger hit a three-run home run in the fifth inning to give the Dodgers the second of three leads that they would squander. At 22 years, 108 days old, Bellinger is the youngest Dodger to hit a home run in the World Series, breaking the old mark of Pete Reiser, who was 22 years, 202 days old in Game 4 of the 1941 World Series.

Bellinger is the youngest player to hit a World Series home run for any team since Miguel Cabrera for the Marlins in 2003.

Bellinger also tripled in the seventh inning to give the Dodgers another lead. Since starting his first World Series 0-for-13 with eight strikeouts, Bellinger is 4-for-7, with all four hits for extra-bases. He is the first rookie to hit a home run and a triple in a World Series game, and is the youngest to do so, surpassing former Dodger Pedro Guerrero, who was 25 years, 121 days old in Game 6 in 1981.

The bunt

After a leadoff double by Justin Turner in the seventh inning of a tie game, Kiké Hernandez inexplicably attempted a sacrifice, only to see his hard bunt back to pitcher Brad Peacock turned easily into a fielder’s choice out, erasing Turner at third.

Setting aside for a moment that Hernandez only had two sacrifice bunts — and two attempts — in his major league career before Sunday, here is the run expectancy for that situation, per Baseball Prospectus:

Runner on 2B, 0 outs: 1.1095 runs scored the rest of the inning, on average
Runner on 3B, 1 out: 0.9325 runs

Even had the bunt been successful, the Dodgers’ on average would have scored fewer runs in the inning than the situation they were already in.

Looking at just the probability of scoring at least one run, the decision makes a little more sense:

Runner on 2B, 0 outs: 61.4% chance of scoring
Runner on 3B, 1 out: 66.0% chance

So the likelihood of scoring at least one run would have increased with a successful bunt, but for the life of me I don’t know how at the end of a long weekend in that ballpark, and in the fifth game of a series against an offense as good as the Astros, that thinking playing for one run in that environment is a sound strategy.

Down 3-2

This is the 66th World Series that has started 3-2. The team with the lead heading into Game 6 has won 43 of the previous 65 series. (66.2%), including 25 wins in Game 6.

Guarantees have lost a little luster since Pat Riley 30 years ago, but Yasiel Puig offered his thoughts on Tuesday’s game at Dodger Stadium, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com:

"My team, this is not going to be finished Tuesday. There's going to be a Game 7," said Puig, whose two-run homer helped the Dodgers send this wild one into extra innings with a three-run ninth. "All the fans in Los Angeles from the first day of Spring Training, and the team, do a lot of workouts and preparation, and this is the reason my team is in the World Series right now. And I want to say thank you to the fans for supporting my team on Tuesday, and there's going to be a Game 7."