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After previewing four salary arbitration-eligible players, we are left with three Dodgers relief pitchers to go through the process this winter. Two of them — Tony Cingrani and Josh Fields — have over four years of service time, so we’ll look at them together.
This would have been a three-pitcher preview but Luis Avilan was traded to Chicago on Thursday.
Tony Cingrani has four years, 88 days of major league service time and Josh Fields has four years, 83 days. Though he has started just one time in the last three years, Cingrani’s career numbers are affected a bit with his 30 career starts, while all 243 of Fields’ career appearances have been in relief.
There are quite a few relievers with similar service time as Fields and CIngrani to go through the arbitration process over the last three winters. Here are the career numbers of 20 of them, plus the two Dodgers.
Comparable 4+ relief pitchers (career)
| Players | Years | Service | IP | Sv | K | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Years | Service | IP | Sv | K | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
| Tony Cingrani | 2012-17 | 4.088 | 312 | 17 | 330 | 101 | 4.45 | 2.4 | 1.3 | TBD |
| Josh Fields | 2013-17 | 4.083 | 235⅓ | 11 | 279 | 101 | 3.28 | 1.0 | 3.2 | TBD |
| Brad Brach | 2011-16 | 4.063 | 325⅓ | 3 | 352 | 134 | 3.71 | 5.1 | 2.3 | $3,050,000 |
| Jared Hughes* | 2011-16 | 4.162 | 309⅓ | 3 | 189 | 136 | 4.09 | 3.6 | -0.6 | $2,825,000 |
| Bryan Shaw | 2011-15 | 4.081 | 303 | 7 | 256 | 134 | 3.56 | 4.2 | 2.0 | $2,750,000 |
| Justin Wilson | 2012-16 | 4.035 | 258 | 1 | 258 | 118 | 3.21 | 3.3 | 3.4 | $2,700,000 |
| Jake Diekman | 2012-16 | 4.050 | 248 | 4 | 304 | 112 | 3.15 | 1.8 | 3.2 | $2,550,000 |
| Marc Rzepczynski* | 2009-14 | 4.132 | 310⅓ | 1 | 286 | 109 | 3.85 | 3.1 | 2.2 | $2,400,000 |
| Adam Warren | 2012-16 | 4.036 | 354⅔ | 5 | 297 | 112 | 3.96 | 4.6 | 3.0 | $2,290,000 |
| Craig Stammen* | 2009-14 | 4.160 | 486⅔ | 1 | 367 | 101 | 3.70 | 3.4 | 4.8 | $2,250,000 |
| Junichi Tazawa | 2009-14 | 4.086 | 203⅔ | 1 | 198 | 128 | 3.16 | 3.2 | 2.9 | $2,250,000 |
| Carlos Torres | 2009-16 | 4.114 | 418⅓ | 4 | 374 | 100 | 4.04 | 3.6 | 1.7 | $2,175,000 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | 2006-14 | 4.016 | 399 | 0 | 357 | 86 | 4.35 | 1.4 | 3.2 | $2,100,000 |
| Aaron Crow | 2011-14 | 4.000 | 233⅔ | 6 | 208 | 120 | 4.16 | 2.3 | -0.2 | $1,975,000 |
| Zach McAllister | 2011-16 | 4.077 | 484⅔ | 1 | 437 | 98 | 3.83 | 1.9 | 6.1 | $1,825,000 |
| Esmil Rogers | 2009-14 | 4.088 | 421 | 0 | 355 | 77 | 4.43 | -2.7 | 1.7 | $1,480,000 |
| Jeanmar Gomez | 2010-15 | 4.063 | 424 | 1 | 253 | 91 | 4.32 | 1.0 | 1.1 | $1,400,000 |
| Fernando Salas | 2010-14 | 4.048 | 251 | 24 | 247 | 110 | 3.40 | 3.1 | 2.0 | $1,370,000 |
| Cesar Ramos | 2009-14 | 4.003 | 246⅔ | 1 | 198 | 97 | 3.95 | 0.9 | 0.5 | $1,312,000 |
| Blake Wood | 2010-16 | 4.131 | 203⅔ | 2 | 182 | 99 | 4.18 | 1.3 | 0.2 | $1,275,000 |
| Aaron Loup | 2012-16 | 4.040 | 225⅓ | 6 | 191 | 126 | 3.43 | 3.2 | 2.1 | $1,125,000 |
| Fernando Rodriguez | 2009-15 | 4.032 | 191 | 0 | 205 | 90 | 3.90 | -0.2 | 1.0 | $1,050,000 |
Very roughly, the five relievers that look most similar to Fields from a career standpoint are Justin Wilson, Jake Diekman, Junichi Tazawa, Aaron Crow and Fernando Salas. The salary range for the fifth season for these pitchers was wide, from $1.37 million (Salas) to $2.7 million (Wilson), with an average of $2.17 million.
The most similar to Cingrani — again, just eyeballing here — seem to be Marc Rzepczynski, Adam Warren, Carlos Torres and Yusmeiro Petit. Those four had an average salary of $2.24 million.
MLB Trade Rumors projected a salary of $2.2 million in 2018 for both Fields and CIngrani, so this seems about right.
Let’s now look at these relievers and their launch-year numbers:
Comparable 4+ relief pitchers (single year)
| Players | Years | Service | IP | Sv | K | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary | Prev. | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Years | Service | IP | Sv | K | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary | Prev. | Increase |
| Tony Cingrani | 2017 | 4.088 | 42⅔ | 0 | 52 | 103 | 4.68 | 0.0 | 0.0 | TBD | $1,825,000 | TBD |
| Josh Fields | 2017 | 4.083 | 57 | 2 | 60 | 148 | 4.18 | 0.8 | 0.3 | TBD | $1,050,000 | TBD |
| Brad Brach | 2016 | 4.063 | 79 | 2 | 92 | 210 | 2.92 | 2.6 | 1.6 | $3,050,000 | $1,250,000 | +144.0% |
| Jared Hughes* | 2016 | 4.162 | 59⅓ | 1 | 34 | 137 | 4.68 | 0.9 | -0.3 | $2,825,000 | $2,175,000 | +29.9% |
| Bryan Shaw | 2015 | 4.081 | 64 | 2 | 54 | 146 | 4.01 | 1.2 | 0.2 | $2,750,000 | $1,550,000 | +77.4% |
| Justin Wilson | 2016 | 4.035 | 58⅔ | 1 | 65 | 103 | 3.18 | 0.4 | 1.1 | $2,700,000 | $1,525,000 | +77.0% |
| Jake Diekman | 2016 | 4.050 | 53 | 4 | 59 | 135 | 3.54 | 1.0 | 0.7 | $2,550,000 | $1,255,000 | +103.2% |
| Marc Rzepczynski* | 2014 | 4.132 | 46 | 1 | 46 | 143 | 2.85 | 0.6 | 0.6 | $2,400,000 | $1,375,000 | +74.5% |
| Adam Warren | 2016 | 4.036 | 65⅓ | 0 | 52 | 91 | 5.12 | -0.5 | -0.5 | $2,290,000 | $1,700,000 | +34.7% |
| Craig Stammen* | 2014 | 4.160 | 72⅔ | 0 | 56 | 98 | 3.19 | 0.1 | 0.6 | $2,250,000 | $1,375,000 | +63.6% |
| Junichi Tazawa | 2014 | 4.086 | 63 | 0 | 64 | 140 | 2.94 | 0.8 | 0.9 | $2,250,000 | $1,275,000 | +76.5% |
| Carlos Torres | 2016 | 4.114 | 82⅓ | 2 | 78 | 156 | 3.75 | 2.3 | 0.7 | $2,175,000 | $950,000 | +128.9% |
| Yusmeiro Petit | 2014 | 4.016 | 117 | 0 | 133 | 94 | 2.78 | 0.9 | 1.8 | $2,100,000 | $845,000 | +148.5% |
| Aaron Crow | 2014 | 4.000 | 59 | 3 | 34 | 96 | 5.40 | -0.4 | -1.1 | $1,975,000 | $1,475,000 | +33.9% |
| Zach McAllister | 2016 | 4.077 | 52⅓ | 0 | 54 | 132 | 4.01 | 1.1 | 0.4 | $1,825,000 | $1,300,000 | +40.4% |
| Esmil Rogers | 2014 | 4.088 | 45⅔ | 0 | 44 | 68 | 4.73 | -0.5 | -0.2 | $1,480,000 | $1,850,000 | -20.0% |
| Jeanmar Gomez | 2015 | 4.063 | 74⅔ | 0 | 50 | 128 | 3.25 | 1.3 | 0.8 | $1,400,000 | $800,000 | +75.0% |
| Fernando Salas | 2014 | 4.048 | 58⅔ | 0 | 61 | 107 | 2.93 | 0.6 | 0.6 | $1,370,000 | $870,000 | +57.5% |
| Cesar Ramos | 2014 | 4.003 | 82⅔ | 0 | 66 | 101 | 4.24 | 0.4 | -0.1 | $1,312,000 | $750,000 | +74.9% |
| Blake Wood | 2016 | 4.131 | 76⅔ | 1 | 81 | 107 | 4.12 | 0.6 | 0.3 | $1,275,000 | $600,000 | +112.5% |
| Aaron Loup | 2016 | 4.040 | 14⅓ | 0 | 15 | 87 | 4.33 | 0.0 | 0.0 | $1,125,000 | $1,050,000 | +7.1% |
| Fernando Rodriguez | 2015 | 4.032 | 58⅔ | 0 | 65 | 102 | 3.08 | 0.3 | 0.8 | $1,050,000 | $635,000 | +65.4% |
| +70.3% |
I’m not sure if this provides any more clarity. Petit pitched 117 innings in 2014 so he probably drops off as a comparable player to Cingrani, who threw just 42⅔ innings in 2017.
The average increase from year four to year five for these 20 pitchers was 70.3%. Cingrani made $1.825 million in 2017, and a 70.3% increase would be $3.11 million. That seems high. A 70.3% increase for Fields, who made $1.05 million last year, would mean $1.79 million in 2018.
The guess
Cingrani has better bulk numbers in his career than Fields and earned more in 2017, so I think Cingrani will again make more than Fields in 2018. I’ll guess $2.3 million for Cingrani next season and $1.9 million for Fields.