clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Pedro Baez 2018 salary arbitration preview

New, comments
MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Our final Dodgers salary arbitration preview for 2018 is Pedro Baez, who is eligible for arbitration for the first time.

Baez enters the process after arguably his worst season, with strikeouts down and walks up. But despite a career-worst FIP (4.44), his ERA was still good (2.95) and he posted his best ERA+ (142).

Many of the comparable players we saw for Tony Cingrani and Josh Fields will be seen here for Baez, but at a year earlier. Baez has three years, 59 days of service time, one season behind those other two Dodgers teammates.

Here are the career numbers for several similar non-closer relievers to Baez from the last two offseasons, 24 in all.

Baez comparable pitchers (career)

Players Years Service IP Sv K ERA+ FIP rWAR fWAR Salary
Players Years Service IP Sv K ERA+ FIP rWAR fWAR Salary
Pedro Baez 2014-17 3.059 213 0 225 130 3.69 2.2 1.8 TBD
George Kontos* 2011-16 3.171 264 0 264 129 3.66 2.9 0.6 $1,750,000
Kevin Siegrist 2013-16 3.116 206⅓ 9 243 144 3.49 4.4 2.0 $1,637,500
Justin Wilson 2012-15 3.035 199⅓ 0 193 124 3.22 2.8 2.3 $1,525,000
Luis Avilan 2012-16 3.146 217⅓ 0 173 128 3.34 3.5 1.6 $1,500,000
Rex Brothers 2011-15 3.117 242⅓ 20 278 132 3.68 5.0 2.0 $1,420,000
Dan Jennings* 2012-16 3.171 217 1 176 144 3.49 3.6 1.7 $1,400,000
J.J. Hoover 2012-15 3.102 223⅔ 5 225 116 4.14 2.5 0.7 $1,400,000
Luis Avilan 2012-15 3.077 197⅔ 0 145 128 3.46 3.2 1.1 $1,390,000
Brad Hand 2011-16 3.092 378 2 301 90 4.19 2.2 1.4 $1,375,000
Bryan Morris 2012-15 3.011 197⅓ 0 140 133 4.17 2.6 -1.1 $1,350,000
Nick Vincent* 2012-16 3.142 211 4 226 125 2.99 3.0 3.1 $1,325,000
Xavier Cedeño 2011-16 3.060 139⅓ 2 140 106 3.39 1.4 1.6 $1,300,000
Zach McAllister 2011-15 3.077 432⅓ 1 383 95 3.81 0.8 5.7 $1,300,000
Jake Diekman 2012-15 3.049 195 0 245 107 3.04 -0.4 2.5 $1,255,000
Chris Hatcher* 2011-16 3.146 169⅓ 4 173 82 3.92 -1.0 0.5 $1,250,000
Brad Brach 2011-15 3.063 246⅓ 1 260 118 3.96 2.5 0.7 $1,250,000
Alex Wilson 2013-16 3.038 199 2 128 147 3.55 3.8 1.9 $1,175,000
Zach Putnam* 2011-16 3.135 143⅓ 6 153 118 3.49 2.4 1.3 $1,175,000
Liam Hendriks 2011-16 3.038 318 0 272 84 4.01 -0.9 2.9 $1,100,000
Dan Otero 2012-16 3.124 255⅓ 2 165 137 3.02 4.6 2.9 $1,055,000
Cory Gearrin 2011-16 3.136 121⅓ 4 118 92 3.31 -0.2 1.0 $1,050,000
Josh Fields 2013-16 3.092 178⅓ 9 219 91 2.99 0.2 2.9 $1,050,000
Aaron Loup 2012-15 3.083 211 6 176 130 3.36 3.2 2.1 $1,050,000
Carlos Torres 2009-15 3.114 336 2 296 91 4.11 1.3 1.0 $1,050,000
*Super Two Thanks as always to MLB Trade Rumors, Cot’s Baseball Contracts & Baseball-Reference

Old friend Luis Avilan shows up twice on this list, with just over three years of service time after the 2015 season and then again with not quite four years of service time after the 2016 season.

On career statistics the two that look most similar to Baez in both bulk numbers and rate stats are J.J. Hoover ($1.4 million in 2016) and Nick Vincent ($1.325 million in 2017), with the small caveat that Vincent was a Super Two the year before which slightly inflated his arb number the next season.

Here are the single-season stats for this same group of relievers:

Baez comparable pitchers (single year)

Players Year Service IP Sv K ERA+ FIP rWAR fWAR Salary
Players Year Service IP Sv K ERA+ FIP rWAR fWAR Salary
Pedro Baez 2017 3.059 64 0 64 142 4.44 0.6 0.2 TBD
George Kontos* 2016 3.171 53⅓ 0 35 159 3.80 0.9 0.2 $1,750,000
Kevin Siegrist 2016 3.116 61⅔ 3 66 147 4.43 1.7 0.1 $1,637,500
Justin Wilson 2015 3.035 61 0 66 132 2.69 1.4 1.5 $1,525,000
Luis Avilan 2016 3.146 19⅔ 0 28 127 2.13 0.3 0.5 $1,500,000
Rex Brothers 2015 3.117 10⅓ 0 5 273 4.49 0.5 0.0 $1,420,000
Dan Jennings* 2016 3.171 60⅔ 1 46 196 3.38 1.5 0.9 $1,400,000
J.J. Hoover 2015 3.102 64⅓ 1 52 135 4.47 1.0 -0.1 $1,400,000
Luis Avilan 2015 3.077 53⅓ 0 49 95 3.66 0.3 0.2 $1,390,000
Brad Hand 2016 3.092 89⅓ 1 111 136 3.07 1.8 1.5 $1,375,000
Bryan Morris 2015 3.011 63 0 47 121 3.64 0.4 0.3 $1,350,000
Nick Vincent* 2016 3.142 60⅓ 3 65 109 4.16 0.6 0.3 $1,325,000
Xavier Cedeño 2016 3.060 41⅓ 0 43 109 2.64 0.6 0.9 $1,300,000
Zach McAllister 2015 3.077 69 1 84 144 3.15 1.0 0.9 $1,300,000
Jake Diekman 2015 3.049 58⅓ 0 69 100 3.63 0.6 0.4 $1,255,000
Chris Hatcher* 2016 3.146 40⅔ 0 43 73 5.21 -0.7 -0.3 $1,250,000
Brad Brach 2015 3.063 62⅓ 0 54 125 3.90 2.0 0.9 $1,250,000
Alex Wilson 2016 3.038 73 0 49 144 3.60 1.8 0.9 $1,175,000
Zach Putnam* 2016 3.135 27⅓ 0 30 114 3.11 0.7 0.4 $1,175,000
Liam Hendriks 2016 3.038 64⅔ 0 71 109 2.85 0.6 1.3 $1,100,000
Dan Otero 2016 3.124 70⅔ 1 57 296 2.33 2.7 1.6 $1,055,000
Cory Gearrin 2016 3.136 48⅓ 3 45 94 3.29 -0.1 0.6 $1,050,000
Josh Fields 2016 3.092 35 0 42 88 3.26 -0.3 0.5 $1,050,000
Aaron Loup 2015 3.083 42⅓ 0 46 92 3.72 -0.2 0.2 $1,050,000
Carlos Torres 2015 3.114 57⅔ 0 48 92 3.53 -0.5 0.4 $1,050,000
*Super Two Thanks as always to MLB Trade Rumors, Cot’s Baseball Contracts & Baseball-Reference

Hoover and Vincent look similar again, with maybe a dash of Brad Brach ($1.25 million in 2016) added to the mix as well, all with similarly strong superficial numbers but weaker peripherals.

Former Dodgers minor leaguer Bryan Morris has similar numbers as well, with Baez getting the edge in career bulk numbers, boding well for Baez potentially beating the $1.35 million that Morris received in 2016.

The guess

MLB Trade Rumors projected a $1.5 million salary for Baez in 2018. The average for Hoover, Vincent and Brach above is $1.325 million. Given that Baez’s numbers look a little better than Morris, I’ll say Baez gets a little closer to that and put him at $1.4 million.

The date for players and teams to exchange salary figures is Friday.