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Our final Dodgers salary arbitration preview for 2018 is Pedro Baez, who is eligible for arbitration for the first time.
Baez enters the process after arguably his worst season, with strikeouts down and walks up. But despite a career-worst FIP (4.44), his ERA was still good (2.95) and he posted his best ERA+ (142).
Many of the comparable players we saw for Tony Cingrani and Josh Fields will be seen here for Baez, but at a year earlier. Baez has three years, 59 days of service time, one season behind those other two Dodgers teammates.
Here are the career numbers for several similar non-closer relievers to Baez from the last two offseasons, 24 in all.
Baez comparable pitchers (career)
| Players | Years | Service | IP | Sv | K | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Years | Service | IP | Sv | K | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
| Pedro Baez | 2014-17 | 3.059 | 213 | 0 | 225 | 130 | 3.69 | 2.2 | 1.8 | TBD |
| George Kontos* | 2011-16 | 3.171 | 264 | 0 | 264 | 129 | 3.66 | 2.9 | 0.6 | $1,750,000 |
| Kevin Siegrist | 2013-16 | 3.116 | 206⅓ | 9 | 243 | 144 | 3.49 | 4.4 | 2.0 | $1,637,500 |
| Justin Wilson | 2012-15 | 3.035 | 199⅓ | 0 | 193 | 124 | 3.22 | 2.8 | 2.3 | $1,525,000 |
| Luis Avilan | 2012-16 | 3.146 | 217⅓ | 0 | 173 | 128 | 3.34 | 3.5 | 1.6 | $1,500,000 |
| Rex Brothers | 2011-15 | 3.117 | 242⅓ | 20 | 278 | 132 | 3.68 | 5.0 | 2.0 | $1,420,000 |
| Dan Jennings* | 2012-16 | 3.171 | 217 | 1 | 176 | 144 | 3.49 | 3.6 | 1.7 | $1,400,000 |
| J.J. Hoover | 2012-15 | 3.102 | 223⅔ | 5 | 225 | 116 | 4.14 | 2.5 | 0.7 | $1,400,000 |
| Luis Avilan | 2012-15 | 3.077 | 197⅔ | 0 | 145 | 128 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 1.1 | $1,390,000 |
| Brad Hand | 2011-16 | 3.092 | 378 | 2 | 301 | 90 | 4.19 | 2.2 | 1.4 | $1,375,000 |
| Bryan Morris | 2012-15 | 3.011 | 197⅓ | 0 | 140 | 133 | 4.17 | 2.6 | -1.1 | $1,350,000 |
| Nick Vincent* | 2012-16 | 3.142 | 211 | 4 | 226 | 125 | 2.99 | 3.0 | 3.1 | $1,325,000 |
| Xavier Cedeño | 2011-16 | 3.060 | 139⅓ | 2 | 140 | 106 | 3.39 | 1.4 | 1.6 | $1,300,000 |
| Zach McAllister | 2011-15 | 3.077 | 432⅓ | 1 | 383 | 95 | 3.81 | 0.8 | 5.7 | $1,300,000 |
| Jake Diekman | 2012-15 | 3.049 | 195 | 0 | 245 | 107 | 3.04 | -0.4 | 2.5 | $1,255,000 |
| Chris Hatcher* | 2011-16 | 3.146 | 169⅓ | 4 | 173 | 82 | 3.92 | -1.0 | 0.5 | $1,250,000 |
| Brad Brach | 2011-15 | 3.063 | 246⅓ | 1 | 260 | 118 | 3.96 | 2.5 | 0.7 | $1,250,000 |
| Alex Wilson | 2013-16 | 3.038 | 199 | 2 | 128 | 147 | 3.55 | 3.8 | 1.9 | $1,175,000 |
| Zach Putnam* | 2011-16 | 3.135 | 143⅓ | 6 | 153 | 118 | 3.49 | 2.4 | 1.3 | $1,175,000 |
| Liam Hendriks | 2011-16 | 3.038 | 318 | 0 | 272 | 84 | 4.01 | -0.9 | 2.9 | $1,100,000 |
| Dan Otero | 2012-16 | 3.124 | 255⅓ | 2 | 165 | 137 | 3.02 | 4.6 | 2.9 | $1,055,000 |
| Cory Gearrin | 2011-16 | 3.136 | 121⅓ | 4 | 118 | 92 | 3.31 | -0.2 | 1.0 | $1,050,000 |
| Josh Fields | 2013-16 | 3.092 | 178⅓ | 9 | 219 | 91 | 2.99 | 0.2 | 2.9 | $1,050,000 |
| Aaron Loup | 2012-15 | 3.083 | 211 | 6 | 176 | 130 | 3.36 | 3.2 | 2.1 | $1,050,000 |
| Carlos Torres | 2009-15 | 3.114 | 336 | 2 | 296 | 91 | 4.11 | 1.3 | 1.0 | $1,050,000 |
Old friend Luis Avilan shows up twice on this list, with just over three years of service time after the 2015 season and then again with not quite four years of service time after the 2016 season.
On career statistics the two that look most similar to Baez in both bulk numbers and rate stats are J.J. Hoover ($1.4 million in 2016) and Nick Vincent ($1.325 million in 2017), with the small caveat that Vincent was a Super Two the year before which slightly inflated his arb number the next season.
Here are the single-season stats for this same group of relievers:
Baez comparable pitchers (single year)
| Players | Year | Service | IP | Sv | K | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Year | Service | IP | Sv | K | ERA+ | FIP | rWAR | fWAR | Salary |
| Pedro Baez | 2017 | 3.059 | 64 | 0 | 64 | 142 | 4.44 | 0.6 | 0.2 | TBD |
| George Kontos* | 2016 | 3.171 | 53⅓ | 0 | 35 | 159 | 3.80 | 0.9 | 0.2 | $1,750,000 |
| Kevin Siegrist | 2016 | 3.116 | 61⅔ | 3 | 66 | 147 | 4.43 | 1.7 | 0.1 | $1,637,500 |
| Justin Wilson | 2015 | 3.035 | 61 | 0 | 66 | 132 | 2.69 | 1.4 | 1.5 | $1,525,000 |
| Luis Avilan | 2016 | 3.146 | 19⅔ | 0 | 28 | 127 | 2.13 | 0.3 | 0.5 | $1,500,000 |
| Rex Brothers | 2015 | 3.117 | 10⅓ | 0 | 5 | 273 | 4.49 | 0.5 | 0.0 | $1,420,000 |
| Dan Jennings* | 2016 | 3.171 | 60⅔ | 1 | 46 | 196 | 3.38 | 1.5 | 0.9 | $1,400,000 |
| J.J. Hoover | 2015 | 3.102 | 64⅓ | 1 | 52 | 135 | 4.47 | 1.0 | -0.1 | $1,400,000 |
| Luis Avilan | 2015 | 3.077 | 53⅓ | 0 | 49 | 95 | 3.66 | 0.3 | 0.2 | $1,390,000 |
| Brad Hand | 2016 | 3.092 | 89⅓ | 1 | 111 | 136 | 3.07 | 1.8 | 1.5 | $1,375,000 |
| Bryan Morris | 2015 | 3.011 | 63 | 0 | 47 | 121 | 3.64 | 0.4 | 0.3 | $1,350,000 |
| Nick Vincent* | 2016 | 3.142 | 60⅓ | 3 | 65 | 109 | 4.16 | 0.6 | 0.3 | $1,325,000 |
| Xavier Cedeño | 2016 | 3.060 | 41⅓ | 0 | 43 | 109 | 2.64 | 0.6 | 0.9 | $1,300,000 |
| Zach McAllister | 2015 | 3.077 | 69 | 1 | 84 | 144 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 0.9 | $1,300,000 |
| Jake Diekman | 2015 | 3.049 | 58⅓ | 0 | 69 | 100 | 3.63 | 0.6 | 0.4 | $1,255,000 |
| Chris Hatcher* | 2016 | 3.146 | 40⅔ | 0 | 43 | 73 | 5.21 | -0.7 | -0.3 | $1,250,000 |
| Brad Brach | 2015 | 3.063 | 62⅓ | 0 | 54 | 125 | 3.90 | 2.0 | 0.9 | $1,250,000 |
| Alex Wilson | 2016 | 3.038 | 73 | 0 | 49 | 144 | 3.60 | 1.8 | 0.9 | $1,175,000 |
| Zach Putnam* | 2016 | 3.135 | 27⅓ | 0 | 30 | 114 | 3.11 | 0.7 | 0.4 | $1,175,000 |
| Liam Hendriks | 2016 | 3.038 | 64⅔ | 0 | 71 | 109 | 2.85 | 0.6 | 1.3 | $1,100,000 |
| Dan Otero | 2016 | 3.124 | 70⅔ | 1 | 57 | 296 | 2.33 | 2.7 | 1.6 | $1,055,000 |
| Cory Gearrin | 2016 | 3.136 | 48⅓ | 3 | 45 | 94 | 3.29 | -0.1 | 0.6 | $1,050,000 |
| Josh Fields | 2016 | 3.092 | 35 | 0 | 42 | 88 | 3.26 | -0.3 | 0.5 | $1,050,000 |
| Aaron Loup | 2015 | 3.083 | 42⅓ | 0 | 46 | 92 | 3.72 | -0.2 | 0.2 | $1,050,000 |
| Carlos Torres | 2015 | 3.114 | 57⅔ | 0 | 48 | 92 | 3.53 | -0.5 | 0.4 | $1,050,000 |
Hoover and Vincent look similar again, with maybe a dash of Brad Brach ($1.25 million in 2016) added to the mix as well, all with similarly strong superficial numbers but weaker peripherals.
Former Dodgers minor leaguer Bryan Morris has similar numbers as well, with Baez getting the edge in career bulk numbers, boding well for Baez potentially beating the $1.35 million that Morris received in 2016.
The guess
MLB Trade Rumors projected a $1.5 million salary for Baez in 2018. The average for Hoover, Vincent and Brach above is $1.325 million. Given that Baez’s numbers look a little better than Morris, I’ll say Baez gets a little closer to that and put him at $1.4 million.
The date for players and teams to exchange salary figures is Friday.