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Yasmani Grandal is going to steal one base in 2018

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MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There are various baseball projection systems out this year, and for someone with a track record like catcher Yasmani Grandal you have a pretty good idea what is expected.

Grandal in four years as a regular starter has averaged 20 home runs and 57 walks while hitting .234/.331/.437. His 110 OPS+ during that time has featured seasons of 111, 112, 118 and 100.

He has averaged one home run every 22.6 plate appearances from 2014-17, and the five projection systems — ZiPS, Marcel, Steamer, Bill James and PECOTA — have Grandal doing roughly the same in 2018, between one every 20.5 and 23.6 PA.

Those numbers are mostly close together, but there is one strange thing these five projection systems all seem to agree on regarding Grandal: that he will steal exactly one base this season.

Yasmani Grandal 2018 projections

Projection PA 2B HR SB BA/OBP/SLG
Projection PA 2B HR SB BA/OBP/SLG
ZiPS 452 19 22 1 .235/.324/.456
Marcel 487 20 23 1 .240/.329/.454
Steamer 278 11 13 1 .234/.340/.441
Bill James 519 23 22 1 .232/.326/.431
PECOTA 345 14 15 1 .266/.328/.425
Sources: Dan Szymborski, Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, 2018 Bill James Handbook & Baseball Prospectus

Grandal has one stolen base in his three years as a Dodger, and he’s been thrown out five times. The steal came in the seventh inning on July 29, 2016 against Randall Delgado and the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium, taking second base without a throw from catcher Welington Castillo.

In 586 career games Grandal has stolen five bases in nine attempts. Three of those steals came in 2014 when he was with the Padres, and two of those swipes came against the Dodgers.