Dodgers 2018 top prospects: No. 16, Gavin Lux

Despite what looks on the surface like a rude introduction to full season ball, Gavin Lux’s first season in the minors had enough silver linings to be optimistic still about his future. While Lux did little to assuage fears of a potentially low ceiling for a prep prospect, especially on offense, he still managed to do enough in the second half to warrant an possible promotion to High-A to start 2018. The biggest challenge for Lux going forward will be changing the way the former Dodgers’ first-round pick impacts the ball at the plate, hoping to lift more flies next year to improve a rather lackluster BABIP.

While Lux slid eight spots in the rankings from 2017, his grades remain much the same from the previous year. Lux’s plate approach showed polish, striking out just over 17% of the time despite a rough year at the plate, and walking in over 11% of his plate appearances. Lux was more of a threat than I anticipated when on the bases, stealing 27 bases in 37 attempts, showing more anticipatory instincts than raw speed.

To take advantage of those instincts, Lux will need to reach base more often in 2018, which will likely mean a needed shift in batted ball patterns. While Lux makes plenty of contact, his most common in play outcome was a ground out to the left side. To his credit you can see the improvements Lux has made to his swing in pregame video, further eliminating the hitch from his high school film and employing an elevated line-drive stroke.

The in-game film however shows a more parabolic swing path, with Lux often impacting down on the ball when he doesn’t catch the pitch out in front of the plate. Converting the cage swing to the field will be a necessary step in his offensive development, as he does have some power to tap into when he gets the ball in the air.

Lux may not have better than average power at his peak, but he’s got a strong frame for a shortstop and almost reached an .150 isolated slugging percentage in the second half of a tough hitting league. His power, however, was limited to his pull side, and even at his peak that will likely be the case given his swing and strength.

The biggest allure with Lux in the 2016 draft might have been the likelihood he would stick at shortstop, and his defense did not disappoint in 2017. Lux committed just 24 errors in 111 games, and though errors rarely tell the story for a teenage prospect, the low number does suggest some polish to his defensive game.

Lux is a quick-rather-than-fast athlete with good footwork and soft hands. He has a quick release and good accuracy that make his arm a plus as much as his arm strength does. He’s already filled out his frame some but shouldn’t worry about outgrowing the position.

“What they said is it doesn’t hurt to be able to play either way. If you can play short, you can play second,” Lux said. “For me personally it doesn’t really matter, I like both.”

Though his final numbers are lower than you would like from a first-round pick, Lux’s second half suggests he might be ready for the California League. Lux hit .336/.388/.467 in August, including three triples, and showed enough contact throughout the season to worry less about his ability to pick up pitches at the next level. While the California League is usually a lift for offense, I will be more concerned with his batted ball profile, hoping to see him cut down on his 52% ground ball rate. I’m not sure what a reasonable expectation in a percentage drop I should expect to see with improvement, but I would assume a drop to 45% would get him into double digit home runs and a much rosier batting average and BABIP.

Lux is just entering his 20s and obviously has time on his side to round out his offensive game. His ceiling may still just be that of solid regular offensively, but his ability to get on base and propensity for stealing bases at a safe clip could make him an interesting leadoff prospect down the road. His defense will be his primary calling card for reaching the big leagues and being a shortstop will have him more in demand for trade should his offensive numbers rebound some.

Whether he returns to Great Lakes at the start of 2018 or heads to Rancho Cucamonga, I don’t expect to see Lux at the major league level until at least 2021, given the lack of need for Los Angeles to push him. It’s not worth even discussing at this point if he eventually causes Seager to shift to third, as the offense has a ways to go to be starting caliber. Still, Lux is hardly a first-round bust and a case could even be made he’s performed to expectations outside of the raw batting line, but improved production will need to follow in 2018 to keep the label away.