Clubbing his way into the big league picture in 2017, Edwin Rios held his offensive performance from Double-A to Triple-A and appears primed for an opportunity. Where that might come positionally will be the biggest issue, as Rios’ best fits with the Dodgers are blocked by established players and his eventual home might be easier found in the American League. Until his chance arrives, Rios will likely continue to mash mistakes for Oklahoma City in 2018 while hoping to improve his third base defense enough to consider himself versatile positionally.
While he’s not the most conventional offensive talent, Rios’ ability to tap into his raw power consistently despite bat speed issues is an underappreciated skill. Rios has some of the best hand strength in the organization and he generates impactful contact on the baseball through muscle over speed. While his power comes primarily pull side, he does have all field pop and could be a 30+ home run hitter over a full big league season.
Rios’ long swing helps with leverage and lift, but can occasionally be a detriment to contact. To his credit, he’s improved his pitch recognition while staying aggressive on fastballs early in the count. He does not harm his average with too many ground balls, with just a 37% rate on batted balls on the ground in 2017, and held his K rate largely in check for primarily a power hitter. I see his major league average hovering closer to the .250-.275 range however because of his power heavy approach and occasional inability to catch up to get fastballs.
Though Rios is ready offensively for a big league role, finding him a spot to play in the Dodgers’ lineup could prove challenging. Rios has played primarily at third base in the minor leagues and he has plenty of arm strength for the position. His agility and range are just fringe for the position and he has committed an error ratio of roughly one in three appearances. Rios played first base in college and can handle the position adequately, but will be blocked long term by Cody Bellinger.
Rios has tried his hand at the outfield some, but given his size and athleticism, it’s not likely to be his strong suit. Rios has a powerful upper body build and will likely continue to slow as he matures, so moving to an outfield corner, a position already crowded on the Dodger roster, would only be a short term solution. Rios’ best value might be with American League team that has at bats to spread around third, first, and designated hitter.
“At the end of the day I’m trying to get my bat in the lineup and if it takes playing multiple positions that’s what I have to do,” Rios said this week “I’m just going to keep battling and keep hitting.”
I see some similarities in profile and future potential output with Orioles’ slugger Mark Trumbo. Like Rios, Trumbo had limited four way utility coming through the Anaheim system but given the playing time, could occasionally out-clubbed his defensive deficiencies. Similarly to Trumbo, I could see Rios having some strong peak seasons but not necessarily the consistency of contact to carry success from season to season.
Rios’ best value to the Dodgers might be as a trade piece, but he will likely spend 2018 as an offensive insurance policy. Should the Dodgers struggle to produce consistently in an outfield corner and need to slide Bellinger back to left field to make room for Rios bat at first, Manager Dave Roberts has shown openness in the past with his lineup to consider it. Additionally, Rios could see call ups in American League towns when interleague play allows for a designated hitter, though the Dodgers will likely have enough firepower on the bench to make this option less plausible.
Rios’ profile as a one plus tooled slugger makes him underappreciated as a prospect, and probably undervalued heading to the big league stage. He’s not the most athletic, tooliest, or flashiest, but a player capable of a 25-30 home run season with full playing time as a rookie should get Rios more attention. While he’s likely to find full time playing opportunities elsewhere, the Dodgers may choose to hold on to Rios for the time being as a safety net for the offense.
2018 top Dodgers prospects
RK | NAME | POS | OD AGE | LEVEL | OVERALL | RISK | CEILING | PROS | CONS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RK | NAME | POS | OD AGE | LEVEL | OVERALL | RISK | CEILING | PROS | CONS |
13 | Edwin Rios | 3B/1B | 23.11 | AAA | 55 | 45 | 60 | big raw power, strong, productive hitter, arm strength | avg bat speed, fringy at 3rd, mistake hitter |
14 | Starling Heredia | LF/RF | 19.02 | LoA | 55 | 35 | 70 | man-child physique, huge raw power, upside | still raw at the plate, serious swing and miss |
15 | Morgan Cooper | RHSP | 23.06 | NA | 55 | 50 | 55 | good frame, + BB with BB manipulation, production | injury history, longer arm action, ceiling more #3 |
16 | Gavin Lux | SS | 20.04 | LoA | 55 | 50 | 55 | should stick at SS, athletic, plate discipline at age | overall offensive ceiling, some hit struggles early |
17 | Jordan Sheffield | RHSP/RP | 22.10 | HiA | 55 | 45 | 60 | electric arm, + present fastball and CV, athletic | production doesn't match stuff, likely reliever |
18 | Imani Abdullah | RHSP | 20.11 | LoA | 55 | 45 | 60 | excellent frame, upside, feel for spin on CB | 17 a redshirt year, limited exposure, little stiff |
19 | Kyle Farmer | C/3B | 27.07 | MLB | 50 | 50 | 45 | good feel for hit, offensive profile at C, utility | more productive bench bat then starter, age |
20 | Caleb Ferguson | LHSP | 21.09 | HiA | 50 | 45 | 50 | K production, 3 pitch mix, command, feel for spin | upside more mid rotation, maxed out frame |
21 | Connor Wong | C/2B | 21.10 | LoA | 50 | 45 | 50 | versatile talent, good athlete for a C, solid power prod | some swing and miss, build not projectable |
22 | Josh Sborz | RHSP/RP | 24.03 | AA | 50 | 45 | 50 | high floor, command of three pitches, competitive | stuff has backed up this season, likely reliever |
23 | James Marinan | RHSP | 19.06 | ROK | 50 | 40 | 55 | projectable frame, flashes + SNK, chance for +CH | slurvy BB, more middle than upper rotation upside |
24 | Devin Smeltzer | LHSP | 22.08 | HiA | 50 | 45 | 50 | high pitchability, 3 pitch mix, throws nothing straight | fringe avg velo, 4th or 5th starter ceiling |
25 | Matt Beaty | 1B/LF | 24.11 | AA | 50 | 45 | 50 | excellent feel for hit, career production, game pop | limited ceiling, future defensive home |
26 | Andrew Sopko | RHSP | 23.08 | AA | 50 | 50 | 45 | 3 pitch mix, pitchability, command, deceptive | velo can be fringy, bottom rotation upside |
27 | Ariel Sandoval | CF/RF | 22.05 | HiA | 50 | 35 | 60 | livey athlete, raw power, arm, 2nd half production | too raw at plate, noisey set-up, high swing and miss |
28 | Tim Locastro | SS/2B/CF | 25.09 | AAA | 50 | 45 | 45 | good bat to ball skills, high steal rate, versatile | fringe pop, stretched at SS and CF, upside |
29 | JT Chargois | RHRP | 27.04 | AAA | 50 | 40 | 55 | heavy life on SNK, GB ability, arm strength | limited track record, long injury history, age |
30 | Jake Peter | 2B/SS | 24.11 | AAA | 50 | 45 | 45 | fluid LH swing, arm strength, versatile | utility/bench upside, ? on overall pop |
31 | Yaisel Sierra | RHRP | 27.01 | AAA | 50 | 40 | 50 | good velo, SL will flash +, quick arm | command, incon. release, FB can be straight |
32 | Wilmer Font | RHSP/RP | 27.10 | MLB | 50 | 40 | 50 | excellent K production, rise on FB, + SL | age, previous command issues, upside |
33 | Ibandel Isabel | 1B | 22.09 | HiA | 50 | 30 | 60 | ++ raw power, physical build, strength | huge swing and miss, poor defender, raw |
34 | Mitchell Hansen | CF/RF | 21.11 | SS | 45 | 40 | 55 | chance for 5 tools, upside, projectable frame | struggling to break full season, swing and miss |
35 | Errol Robinson | SS | 23.06 | AA | 45 | 45 | 50 | smooth infield actions, throwing arm, solid athlete | better long speed than SB threat, off. ceiling |
36 | Johan Mieses | RF/CF | 22.09 | AA | 45 | 40 | 55 | impressive arm, defensive ceiling, raw power | serious swing and miss concerns |
37 | Omar Estevez | 2B/SS | 20.01 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 55 | added defensive versatility, some feel for hit | production stagnated at Hi A, power potential |
38 | Donovan Casey | CF/RF | 22.01 | SS | 45 | 45 | 50 | twitchy athlete, production, solid bat to ball skills | ceiling more 4th OF than starter, power ceiling |
39 | Edward Paredes | LHRP | 31.06 | MLB | 45 | 45 | 45 | K production, tough on LHH, + SL | age, one pitch reliever, LOOGY upside |
40 | Rob Segedin | 3B/LF | 29.05 | MLB | 45 | 45 | 45 | hit vs lefties, gets most of tools, avg pop | bench bat upside, limited defender, upside |
41 | Drew Jackson | SS/2B | 24.09 | AA | 45 | 40 | 50 | elite athlete, + to ++ speed and arm strength | offense improving but limited ceiling, utility upside |
42 | Wills Montgomerie | RHSP/RP | 22.10 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | spin rate, durable build, flashes + velo and CV | uneven production, command wavers |
43 | Cody Thomas | RF | 23.06 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 55 | great build, good athlete, chance for above avg pop | still raw, swing and miss concerns |
44 | Jesen Therrien | RHRP | 25.00 | AAA | 45 | 45 | 45 | SL flashes +, good command and K production | TJ wipes out '18. middle relief/ROOGY upside |
45 | Carlos Rincon | RF | 20.06 | SS | 45 | 35 | 55 | big raw power, physical upside, bat speed | pretty raw offensively, serious swing and miss |
46 | Kyle Garlick | CF/RF/LF | 26.02 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | productive, feel for hitting, avg pop | 4th outfielder profile, age, fringe speed |
47 | Luke Raley | LF/RF | 23.06 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 50 | muscular build, chance for above avg pop | just avg bat speed, possible swing and miss |
48 | Luis Paz | 1B/C | 21.09 | SS | 45 | 40 | 50 | power production, bat speed, strong build | ? on ultimate defensive home, avg athlete |
49 | Riley Ottesen | RHRP | 23.05 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | good velo, will flash + SL, arm speed | poor college production, likely reliever only |
50 | Rylan Bannon | 3B | 21.11 | SS | 45 | 45 | 45 | college/pro production, good feel for hit, game pop | skills over tools, ceiling, possible utility upside |
51 | Leo Crawford | LHSP | 21.01 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | solid production, command of 3 pitch mix | fringe velo, not as projectable, likely back end |
52 | Zach Reks | LF/RF | 24.05 | HiA | 45 | 45 | 45 | feel for hit, on base skills, productive | - power, age, 4th OF profile |
53 | Romer Cuadrado | LF/RF | 20.08 | SS | 45 | 35 | 55 | excellent frame, chance for + raw power | development lagging behind age, swing and miss |
54 | Ryan Moseley | RHRP | 23.06 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | chance for ++ snk, big groundball potential | struggles with command, results don't match stuff |
55 | Jared Walker | 3B/RF | 22.02 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | + size/athleticism combo, chance for hit/power, + arm | raw, buggy whip swing, error prone in IF |
56 | Zach Pop | RHRP | 21.06 | NA | 45 | 40 | 50 | good life/velo combo on FB, solid build, poss. CH | mid relief profile, SL loses shape in low slot |
57 | Corey Copping | RHRP | 24.03 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | good SL, bulldog mentality, decent production | FB velo avg to fringe, middle relief ceiling |
58 | Shea Spitzbarth | RHRP | 23.06 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | agressive mound demeanor, arm strength, CV | middle relief upside, maxed out frame, size |
59 | Layne Somsen | RHRP | 28.10 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | tough overhead BB, production, athletic | limited mid relief ceiling, age, avg FB velo |
60 | Tony Gonsolin | RHRP | 23.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 50 | arm speed, flashes + SL, solid K production | lithe build, not quite late relief upside |
61 | Alfredo Tavarez | RHSP/RP | 20.04 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 50 | king sized frame, arm strength, K production | still raw mechanically, repeating arm slot, command |
62 | Aneurys Zabala | RHRP | 21.03 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | will flash ++ arm strength, some feel for spin | relief profile, command, limited physical upside |
63 | Michael Boyle | LHSP | 23.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | pitch movement, pitchability, 3 pitches | no plus pitch, fringy velo, #5 starter/swingman |
64 | Jefrey Souffront | 2B/3B | 20.11 | ROK | 45 | 35 | 50 | some feel for hit, quick bat, mature plate approach | distance from the majors, build not projectable |
65 | Jacob Amaya | SS/2B | 19.02 | ROK | 45 | 35 | 50 | chance to stick at SS, good athlete, some feel for hit | distance from majors, offensive ceiling |
66 | Ronny Brito | SS | 19.00 | SS | 45 | 35 | 50 | infield actions, long athlete, chance to hit | ? on overall offensive potential, far from majors |
67 | Logan Crouse | RHRP | 21.04 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 50 | size, projectability, athleticism in delivery, arm action | Fringy present velo, lots of projection left |
68 | Chris Mathewson | RHSP/RP | 21.10 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | SNK/SL mix, solid production, command | back of rotation, middle relief upside, fringe velo |
69 | Adam Bray | RHSP | 24.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | durability, feel for spin, good command | fringe starter upside, upside, avg K potential |
70 | Brian Moran | LHRP | 29.06 | AA | 40 | 40 | 45 | funk in delivery, tough in LHH, K potential | limited ceiling, fringe velo, age |
71 | Nolan Long | RHRP | 24.02 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | long frame, athletic for size, FB flashes + | long levers to control, command, likely reliever |
72 | Mike Ahmed | 1B/3B | 26.02 | AA | 40 | 40 | 45 | productive in '16, swing plane, avg pop | bat speed, age, limited upside |
73 | Nathan Witt | RHRP | 21.11 | ROK | 40 | 35 | 50 | good build, projectable, arm strength | project arm, distance from majors, relief upside |
74 | Travis Taijeron | LF/RF | 29.02 | AAA | 40 | 40 | 45 | good career power production, physical build | age, defensive upside, swing and miss concern |
75 | Jacob Scavuzzo | LF | 24.02 | AAA | 40 | 40 | 45 | solid tool profile, still a chance for upside | game going backward, struggling hit tool |
76 | Max Gamboa | RHRP | 22.04 | ROK | 40 | 35 | 50 | excellent arm strength, + to ++ velo, good frame | production does not match stuff, incon. SL |
77 | Dean Kremer | RHRP | 22.03 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | decent athleticism and frame, K production, sink on FB | was hit hard in HiA. Homer prone, no + pitch |
78 | Moises Perez | 2B | 20.08 | LoA | 40 | 40 | 45 | loose athlete, some feel for hit | offensive ceiling, lower on defensive spectrum |
79 | Isaac Anderson | RHSP/RP | 24.07 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | versatile arm, some SNK on FB, avg SL | no plus or above avg tool, low ceiling, taxi arm |