Dodgers 2018 top prospects: No. 8, Dustin May

Teasing exciting potential with already stellar present skills, Dustin May cleared his first full season hurdle and jumped into the 2018 top 10. May’s projectable build and stuff give him one of the higher ceilings of the arms in the Dodgers organization. Touting one of the best walk rates in the organization at just 19 years old also brings up his floor. Entering a tough pitching environment at just 20 to start 2018, his performance in the California League should tell us if we have an elite starting prospect on our hands or a solid mid-level arm with excellent control.

With fiery red curls flowing out of his cap atop a lithe 6’6 frame, May stands out on the diamond. He’s listed at just 190 lbs. and clearly has yet to start adding his adult weight, and more strength will be needed to increase both his sitting velocity and his peak. Still, May cleared 130 innings in his first full season, and his repertoire allowed him to be surprisingly pitch efficient just one year removed from high school.

If his hair doesn’t catch your eye, his delivery most assuredly will. May’s high leg kick, bringing his knee level with his chin, and low three-quarters arm slot show off his impressive length. He’s a good athlete and repeats his delivery well, and he still holds his stuff well without the leg kick in the stretch.

Typically a low right handed slot doesn’t portend well to future starting prospects, but May’s fastball command should let him play up his fastball movement against left handers. His fastball has hard sinking life, diving down and in on right handers when thrown in the lower half of the zone. May controls the pitch surprisingly well given his age and the life on the pitch. The pitch helped May to a 51% ground ball rate, and coupled with his control, kept his pitch count down with quick ground outs.

Coming out of high school, May had produced one of the better spin rates on his breaking ball. He’s still trying to define the shape of the pitch though, as it sometimes appears like a slurvy pitch and at other times a sharper slider with less horizontal movement. His arm slot might make maintaining a tighter shape a challenge, but he’s flashed a plus slider before and given his already strong fastball control, he should have the aptitude to develop the pitch into a workable strikeout pitch.

Developing his change up should help May better hold left handed hitters at bay, who hit .272 against him in Low-A. His arm slot should give him good tumble and fade, needed movement for an outer half pitch against left handers. His fastball life has been overwhelming enough for younger hitters, but as he moves up the ladder, he will need a quality third pitch, and the change up has the most promise thus far.

For May to turn the corner and become a frontline pitcher, the easiest fix will be to gain strength to increase his velocity. He topped out in the mid 90s in high school but reportedly has pitched in the lower 90s as a pro. Naturally, more velocity can be expected from a 6’6 190-lb. teenager.

Additionally, the California League should be a good challenge for him to fine tune his command and learn how to better set up hitters, especially left handers. It has been a little too easy for him to throw his bowling ball sinker and let younger hitters swing over the top of it or pound it into the ground. Will his walk rate climb if batters stop chasing it, or adjust to his attack plan?

These critiques seem like nitpicking of a pitcher that passed a big test as a teenager, and May just needs time to develop physically. It’s rare for someone so young and tall to have already accomplished this level of control, which is why his upside is so exciting.

Despite advanced skills, guessing his big league ETA feels like something less than an educated guess. I’m assuming he will need a full season in the California League, but could move quicker in 2019, so 2020 would be a realistic time for his debut. Given the Dodgers’ depth of pitching prospects, I would also expect May to be a favorite of teams scanning the organization for a trade fit. Until the Dodgers have a more comfortable feel for just how special May could be as a prospect, dealing him away this early could be a decision they might regret in the long term.