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After just one season in the Dominican Summer League, Starling Heredia loudly announced his presence stateside in the short-season leagues. Full-season pitching proved to be a tougher challenge for the teenager, exposing the flaws in his nascent offensive approach. Needing his baseball acumen to catch up to his man sized physique, Heredia is one of the more curious prospects in the Dodgers’ system with equal parts star and bust potential.
While Heredia has been on most media top-30 Dodger prospect lists from some time, I tend to shy from ranking any teenager too highly that has not yet reached stateside, let alone full-season ball. Heredia proved higher ranking services right with his performance in both Ogden and Arizona, and given his physical tools and some performance to evaluate, I’ve now followed suit in bumping Heredia up to 14th on my list.
How high he ultimately climbs this list will rest on almost completely on his hit tool, as his other four tools already tease above average to plus. A listed 6’2 and “200 lbs.”, Heredia has an advanced build for a player entering his age nineteen season. He will almost assuredly continue to fill out and move to an outfield corner, and his future speed grade could likely suffer as well. While already developed in the upper body, Heredia has natural strength that he can flash with power at the plate and with the arm in the field.
It’s the power that will be Heredia’s calling card. Herrera’s raw power doesn’t presently grade alongside sluggers like Edwin Rios and Ibandel Isabel, but he could reach 70 raw power shortly. He has excellent hand and wrist strength and presently muscles balls more than he does generate power with swing plane or bat speed. Because of an undeveloped approach, he hasn’t refined his pull power, but can muscle the ball out to any part of the ball park, with three of his seven home runs going from dead center to the right field gap.
As you can see in the video, the rest of the offensive game is largely a work in progress. Heredia struggles to time pitches effectively, often being caught without a firm from foot, or collapsing his front side getting ahead of a pitch. His swing plane is inconsistent and varies with his ability to get his weight set before starting his hands. Additionally, Heredia’s swing can get long and leave him vulnerable to velocity.
Without sounding too harsh about his offensive potential, it’s important to remember that Heredia was just eighteen and spending his first season in the states. He’s so strong and his batted ball profile is already promising enough that he doesn’t need to make extreme improvements to his contact rate to be productive. Developmentally, he will need to straddle the fine line of exhibiting more control with his hands at the plate while not losing the aggressive intent to murder every pitch.
Having tested the waters at Great Lakes, Heredia is already ahead of the curve of similar sluggers that have come before him like Johan Mieses, suggesting that his ceiling is still incredibly high. The next step in his development will be to break through to full season ball full time without having to bounce back and forth to Ogden for a confidence refresher, and namely that tangible development will be dropping that K rate from 34% at Low A.
Given the present stage of Heredia’s development, there really is no timetable for his big league arrival even if it happens at all. His distance from the majors likely dampens his present trade value some despite his potential, but his age suggests he’s capable of making significant advancements from year to year.
As mentioned, Heredia will likely return to Great Lakes in 2018, and I expect he will still see some time at each outfield position. A breakthrough in contact could make him a star, but it’s hard to forecast this given the raw approach he’s shown a the plate to date. Heredia’s been a famous name for a few years now but he won’t turn 20 until the 2019 season and has plenty of time to struggle and adjust before facing a make or break season for his prospect status.
2018 top Dodgers prospects
RK | NAME | POS | OD AGE | LEVEL | OVERALL | RISK | CEILING | PROS | CONS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RK | NAME | POS | OD AGE | LEVEL | OVERALL | RISK | CEILING | PROS | CONS |
14 | Starling Heredia | LF/RF | 19.02 | LoA | 55 | 35 | 70 | man-child physique, huge raw power, upside | still raw at the plate, serious swing and miss |
15 | Morgan Cooper | RHSP | 23.06 | NA | 55 | 50 | 55 | good frame, + BB with BB manipulation, production | injury history, longer arm action, ceiling more #3 |
16 | Gavin Lux | SS | 20.04 | LoA | 55 | 50 | 55 | should stick at SS, athletic, plate discipline at age | overall offensive ceiling, some hit struggles early |
17 | Jordan Sheffield | RHSP/RP | 22.10 | HiA | 55 | 45 | 60 | electric arm, + present fastball and CV, athletic | production doesn't match stuff, likely reliever |
18 | Imani Abdullah | RHSP | 20.11 | LoA | 55 | 45 | 60 | excellent frame, upside, feel for spin on CB | 17 a redshirt year, limited exposure, little stiff |
19 | Kyle Farmer | C/3B | 27.07 | MLB | 50 | 50 | 45 | good feel for hit, offensive profile at C, utility | more productive bench bat then starter, age |
20 | Caleb Ferguson | LHSP | 21.09 | HiA | 50 | 45 | 50 | K production, 3 pitch mix, command, feel for spin | upside more mid rotation, maxed out frame |
21 | Connor Wong | C/2B | 21.10 | LoA | 50 | 45 | 50 | versatile talent, good athlete for a C, solid power prod | some swing and miss, build not projectable |
22 | Josh Sborz | RHSP/RP | 24.03 | AA | 50 | 45 | 50 | high floor, command of three pitches, competitive | stuff has backed up this season, likely reliever |
23 | James Marinan | RHSP | 19.06 | ROK | 50 | 40 | 55 | projectable frame, flashes + SNK, chance for +CH | slurvy BB, more middle than upper rotation upside |
24 | Devin Smeltzer | LHSP | 22.08 | HiA | 50 | 45 | 50 | high pitchability, 3 pitch mix, throws nothing straight | fringe avg velo, 4th or 5th starter ceiling |
25 | Matt Beaty | 1B/LF | 24.11 | AA | 50 | 45 | 50 | excellent feel for hit, career production, game pop | limited ceiling, future defensive home |
26 | Andrew Sopko | RHSP | 23.08 | AA | 50 | 50 | 45 | 3 pitch mix, pitchability, command, deceptive | velo can be fringy, bottom rotation upside |
27 | Ariel Sandoval | CF/RF | 22.05 | HiA | 50 | 35 | 60 | livey athlete, raw power, arm, 2nd half production | too raw at plate, noisey set-up, high swing and miss |
28 | Tim Locastro | SS/2B/CF | 25.09 | AAA | 50 | 45 | 45 | good bat to ball skills, high steal rate, versatile | fringe pop, stretched at SS and CF, upside |
29 | JT Chargois | RHRP | 27.04 | AAA | 50 | 40 | 55 | heavy life on SNK, GB ability, arm strength | limited track record, long injury history, age |
30 | Jake Peter | 2B/SS | 24.11 | AAA | 50 | 45 | 45 | fluid LH swing, arm strength, versatile | utility/bench upside, ? on overall pop |
31 | Yaisel Sierra | RHRP | 27.01 | AAA | 50 | 40 | 50 | good velo, SL will flash +, quick arm | command, incon. release, FB can be straight |
32 | Wilmer Font | RHSP/RP | 27.10 | MLB | 50 | 40 | 50 | excellent K production, rise on FB, + SL | age, previous command issues, upside |
33 | Ibandel Isabel | 1B | 22.09 | HiA | 50 | 30 | 60 | ++ raw power, physical build, strength | huge swing and miss, poor defender, raw |
34 | Mitchell Hansen | CF/RF | 21.11 | SS | 45 | 40 | 55 | chance for 5 tools, upside, projectable frame | struggling to break full season, swing and miss |
35 | Errol Robinson | SS | 23.06 | AA | 45 | 45 | 50 | smooth infield actions, throwing arm, solid athlete | better long speed than SB threat, off. ceiling |
36 | Johan Mieses | RF/CF | 22.09 | AA | 45 | 40 | 55 | impressive arm, defensive ceiling, raw power | serious swing and miss concerns |
37 | Omar Estevez | 2B/SS | 20.01 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 55 | added defensive versatility, some feel for hit | production stagnated at Hi A, power potential |
38 | Donovan Casey | CF/RF | 22.01 | SS | 45 | 45 | 50 | twitchy athlete, production, solid bat to ball skills | ceiling more 4th OF than starter, power ceiling |
39 | Edward Paredes | LHRP | 31.06 | MLB | 45 | 45 | 45 | K production, tough on LHH, + SL | age, one pitch reliever, LOOGY upside |
40 | Rob Segedin | 3B/LF | 29.05 | MLB | 45 | 45 | 45 | hit vs lefties, gets most of tools, avg pop | bench bat upside, limited defender, upside |
41 | Drew Jackson | SS/2B | 24.09 | AA | 45 | 40 | 50 | elite athlete, + to ++ speed and arm strength | offense improving but limited ceiling, utility upside |
42 | Wills Montgomerie | RHSP/RP | 22.10 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | spin rate, durable build, flashes + velo and CV | uneven production, command wavers |
43 | Cody Thomas | RF | 23.06 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 55 | great build, good athlete, chance for above avg pop | still raw, swing and miss concerns |
44 | Jesen Therrien | RHRP | 25.00 | AAA | 45 | 45 | 45 | SL flashes +, good command and K production | TJ wipes out '18. middle relief/ROOGY upside |
45 | Carlos Rincon | RF | 20.06 | SS | 45 | 35 | 55 | big raw power, physical upside, bat speed | pretty raw offensively, serious swing and miss |
46 | Kyle Garlick | CF/RF/LF | 26.02 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | productive, feel for hitting, avg pop | 4th outfielder profile, age, fringe speed |
47 | Luke Raley | LF/RF | 23.06 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 50 | muscular build, chance for above avg pop | just avg bat speed, possible swing and miss |
48 | Luis Paz | 1B/C | 21.09 | SS | 45 | 40 | 50 | power production, bat speed, strong build | ? on ultimate defensive home, avg athlete |
49 | Riley Ottesen | RHRP | 23.05 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | good velo, will flash + SL, arm speed | poor college production, likely reliever only |
50 | Rylan Bannon | 3B | 21.11 | SS | 45 | 45 | 45 | college/pro production, good feel for hit, game pop | skills over tools, ceiling, possible utility upside |
51 | Leo Crawford | LHSP | 21.01 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | solid production, command of 3 pitch mix | fringe velo, not as projectable, likely back end |
52 | Zach Reks | LF/RF | 24.05 | HiA | 45 | 45 | 45 | feel for hit, on base skills, productive | - power, age, 4th OF profile |
53 | Romer Cuadrado | LF/RF | 20.08 | SS | 45 | 35 | 55 | excellent frame, chance for + raw power | development lagging behind age, swing and miss |
54 | Ryan Moseley | RHRP | 23.06 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | chance for ++ snk, big groundball potential | struggles with command, results don't match stuff |
55 | Jared Walker | 3B/RF | 22.02 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | + size/athleticism combo, chance for hit/power, + arm | raw, buggy whip swing, error prone in IF |
56 | Zach Pop | RHRP | 21.06 | NA | 45 | 40 | 50 | good life/velo combo on FB, solid build, poss. CH | mid relief profile, SL loses shape in low slot |
57 | Corey Copping | RHRP | 24.03 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | good SL, bulldog mentality, decent production | FB velo avg to fringe, middle relief ceiling |
58 | Shea Spitzbarth | RHRP | 23.06 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | agressive mound demeanor, arm strength, CV | middle relief upside, maxed out frame, size |
59 | Layne Somsen | RHRP | 28.10 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | tough overhead BB, production, athletic | limited mid relief ceiling, age, avg FB velo |
60 | Tony Gonsolin | RHRP | 23.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 50 | arm speed, flashes + SL, solid K production | lithe build, not quite late relief upside |
61 | Alfredo Tavarez | RHSP/RP | 20.04 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 50 | king sized frame, arm strength, K production | still raw mechanically, repeating arm slot, command |
62 | Aneurys Zabala | RHRP | 21.03 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | will flash ++ arm strength, some feel for spin | relief profile, command, limited physical upside |
63 | Michael Boyle | LHSP | 23.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | pitch movement, pitchability, 3 pitches | no plus pitch, fringy velo, #5 starter/swingman |
64 | Jefrey Souffront | 2B/3B | 20.11 | ROK | 45 | 35 | 50 | some feel for hit, quick bat, mature plate approach | distance from the majors, build not projectable |
65 | Jacob Amaya | SS/2B | 19.02 | ROK | 45 | 35 | 50 | chance to stick at SS, good athlete, some feel for hit | distance from majors, offensive ceiling |
66 | Ronny Brito | SS | 19.00 | SS | 45 | 35 | 50 | infield actions, long athlete, chance to hit | ? on overall offensive potential, far from majors |
67 | Logan Crouse | RHRP | 21.04 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 50 | size, projectability, athleticism in delivery, arm action | Fringy present velo, lots of projection left |
68 | Chris Mathewson | RHSP/RP | 21.10 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | SNK/SL mix, solid production, command | back of rotation, middle relief upside, fringe velo |
69 | Adam Bray | RHSP | 24.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | durability, feel for spin, good command | fringe starter upside, upside, avg K potential |
70 | Brian Moran | LHRP | 29.06 | AA | 40 | 40 | 45 | funk in delivery, tough in LHH, K potential | limited ceiling, fringe velo, age |
71 | Nolan Long | RHRP | 24.02 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | long frame, athletic for size, FB flashes + | long levers to control, command, likely reliever |
72 | Mike Ahmed | 1B/3B | 26.02 | AA | 40 | 40 | 45 | productive in '16, swing plane, avg pop | bat speed, age, limited upside |
73 | Nathan Witt | RHRP | 21.11 | ROK | 40 | 35 | 50 | good build, projectable, arm strength | project arm, distance from majors, relief upside |
74 | Travis Taijeron | LF/RF | 29.02 | AAA | 40 | 40 | 45 | good career power production, physical build | age, defensive upside, swing and miss concern |
75 | Jacob Scavuzzo | LF | 24.02 | AAA | 40 | 40 | 45 | solid tool profile, still a chance for upside | game going backward, struggling hit tool |
76 | Max Gamboa | RHRP | 22.04 | ROK | 40 | 35 | 50 | excellent arm strength, + to ++ velo, good frame | production does not match stuff, incon. SL |
77 | Dean Kremer | RHRP | 22.03 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | decent athleticism and frame, K production, sink on FB | was hit hard in HiA. Homer prone, no + pitch |
78 | Moises Perez | 2B | 20.08 | LoA | 40 | 40 | 45 | loose athlete, some feel for hit | offensive ceiling, lower on defensive spectrum |
79 | Isaac Anderson | RHSP/RP | 24.07 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | versatile arm, some SNK on FB, avg SL | no plus or above avg tool, low ceiling, taxi arm |