Dodgers 2018 top prospects: No. 3, Alex Verdugo

No player in the top 20 of this year’s Dodgers prospect list has featured in as many of my prospect lists as Alex Verdugo, and that speaks to his consistent and steady climb up the organizational ladder. Seen by some prognosticators as a better pitching prospect than hitting prospect as an amateur, Verdugo has shown the best hit tool in the organization since Corey Seager graduated to the major leagues. Though just 21 on opening day, Verdugo needs to show more power to feature as an impact center fielder, and the competition for roster spots in the Dodger outfield is as competitive as ever.

With the smoothest hands and quickest trigger in the organization, Verdugo generates some of the easiest contact you will see at the minor league level. He has exceptional pitch recognition and the willingness to go with pitches on the outer half if need be, making him increasingly tough to strike out, having done so in just 10% of appearances last year. Verdugo’s discipline at the plate shows itself less in his walk rate and more in his ability to drive the ball from foul line to foul line depending on the pitch.

While he’s worked to add more loft to his swing, Verdugo still lags behind other system outfielders in power. He had just six home runs in Triple-A last season and his career isolated slugging is just .128 across over 1,600 at bats. His lack of power likely stems more from approach than in any physical inability. Because contact comes easily for Verdugo, he’s often inclined to just put the ball in play rather than look for something to pull or lift.

Verdugo could make some adjustments to his swing to add power. He has added more loft to his swing since playing in Tulsa, with a plane a little closer to matching the pitch plane. His extension is fine given his 6’0 frame, but his swing can occasionally be over-rotational with less force being exerted back toward the pitch. I’m sure the team has been loathe to make too many adjustments to Verdugo’s swing given how strong his hit tool is at present.

Despite lacking tremendous foot speed, Verdugo has been able to hold centerfield for most of his minor league career. He takes good routes to balls and generally is quick to move on balls in the gap. He has a strong and accurate arm that could handle the demands of right field if needed. Verdugo is a solid athlete and fluid mover, but he has produced little in terms of speed production on the base paths.

At 6’0 and 205 lbs., Verdugo is likely finished filling out his frame. He’s not as overly reliant on his physical tools as other prospects in the system, but is a more instinctive player that shouldn’t worry about slowing tools as he matures. Still, the Dodgers likely wonder just how much more development they can coax out of him.

In most other organizations, Verdugo likely would have broke Spring Training with the big league club, and he’s capable of holding down a starting role now. However, the roster crunch cost Los Angeles another talented outfielder in Trayce Thompson and Verdugo’s chance to make the roster was notional at best. As a member of the 40-man roster, though, Verdugo will likely get a few opportunities to stick when injuries and ineffectiveness eventually arise.

While Verdugo’s hit tool gives him a high floor, it’s still a question as to how high his ceiling might be. A future as a Quad A or fourth outfielder is still a possibility given his lack of game power and suitability for center field long term. However, he still has the bat speed and strength to develop average pop with more commitment to plate adjustments.

Given the outfield crowdedness and Verdugo’s readiness as a prospect, his greatest value to the Dodgers in 2018 could come in trade, where he’s got the reputation to be the prospect centerpiece of a significant haul. Barring trade, I still see Verdugo’s best case scenario is that of a Nick Markakis-style corner outfielder, with elite prospect worthy peak seasons, and the contact skills for longevity, but ultimately a ceiling as a second division starter.