Dodgers 2018 top prospects: No. 1, Walker Buehler

As part of a national bumper crop of prospects ready to break into the major leagues pushing triple digits, Walker Buehler is the 2018 top prospect in the Dodgers system. Buehler fell into the Dodgers’ lap after injury concerns saw him drop to the 24th pick in the 2015 draft, and Tommy John surgery delayed Buehler’s eventual arrival to the big leagues. After a brief cameo at the close of 2017, Buehler is primed to play a meaningful role on the 2018 Dodgers, with elite velocity and strikeout potential not currently found in the Dodger rotation after Clayton Kershaw.

Given the track record of success Buehler accomplished prior to his junior season at Vanderbilt, Walker should have been one of the first 10 selections in the 2015 draft. An atypical starter build and injury concerns allowed him to drop to Los Angeles, who had the patience to await Buehler fulfilling his potential. He showed some rust but no loss in stuff after returning from injury in 2016, and 2017 was his national coming out party.

Buehler’s frame gave teams pause, but it hasn’t held him back from showing elite arm strength. He’s listed at 6’2 and 175 lbs. and the weight figure at times looks generous. However, Buehler is a terrific athlete and has the twitchiness to show explosive stuff through plus arm speed. Given his athleticism, he is able to repeat his herky jerky delivery well, with a high three-quarters slot that helps disguise his breaking ball. He can occasionally rush his mechanics and throw his release point off, but his consistency is impressive enough given the recency of his injury lay off.

Buehler has two easy plus pitches, with his fastball being elite. He doesn’t have tremendous life on the pitch, but he consistently sits in the upper 90’s with enough backspin to give the pitch “rise” and hitters little time to pick it up. He controls the pitch well, but he does show more swing and miss potential up in the zone, with the breaking balls working on the lower half.

After the fastball, Buehler’s curveball is his second plus pitch. The curve has true 12-6 shape and like the fastball, is thrown with plus velocity. The pitch doesn’t hop out of the hand like some traditional 12-6 curves, and at times almost looks like a spike curveball. He has good command of the pitch, but given the amount of break he gets on the pitch plus his velocity, it can occasionally be hard to keep in the zone.

Buehler’s slider has plus potential, given that he can touch 90-91 mph with the pitch, but often the pitch looks like a cutter with shorter break. He could use the pitch in the minors to generate ground balls, and his overall ground ball rate of 56% was one of the better numbers in the organization last year. To be a better swing-and-miss pitch, he could add more depth to the offering, but it is a quality go-between from the fastball-curveball.

Buehler showed a change up more frequently in college, but appears to have adopted a firmer change up in the pros. Like the fastball, it isn’t lively but is on the upper bands of velocity for the pitch. It is a clear fourth option for Buehler now but could be an above average offering in the future.

The Dodgers have handled Buehler cautiously since his returned from Tommy John, throwing just 98 innings across four levels last season. While I expect the total to ratchet up in 2018, I don’t expect him to see him throw more than 150 innings this year, even if he’s in a pivotal rotation role by mid-season. Buehler held his stuff into the late innings in college, but hasn’t been asked to work deep much as a pro.

Given a potential innings limit in 2018, the Dodgers could employ Buehler much in the way they used Rich Hill in 2017, going twice through an order before turning the game over to the bullpen. Given the quality of his stuff, he should be able to work consistently into the fifth inning in this role while still keeping his pitch count in check. Should they decide to break him in more softly, he could also be an elite arm in the pen down the stretch, or be deployed in a multiple inning role. The bottom line is that his velocity and stuff will play in any role Los Angeles chooses.

I don’t see a future as a workhorse number one for Buehler, à la Clayton Kershaw or even Julio Urias, so I didn’t give him an 80 grade. He still is close to untouchable as a prospect and could be one of the best arms on the big league club when he finally gets the call. Expect Buehler to factor heavily in the Dodgers’ postseason plans, as either the next best arm in the rotation behind Kershaw, or as an elite bridge to Kenley Jansen in the pen.