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As part of a national bumper crop of prospects ready to break into the major leagues pushing triple digits, Walker Buehler is the 2018 top prospect in the Dodgers system. Buehler fell into the Dodgers’ lap after injury concerns saw him drop to the 24th pick in the 2015 draft, and Tommy John surgery delayed Buehler’s eventual arrival to the big leagues. After a brief cameo at the close of 2017, Buehler is primed to play a meaningful role on the 2018 Dodgers, with elite velocity and strikeout potential not currently found in the Dodger rotation after Clayton Kershaw.
Given the track record of success Buehler accomplished prior to his junior season at Vanderbilt, Walker should have been one of the first 10 selections in the 2015 draft. An atypical starter build and injury concerns allowed him to drop to Los Angeles, who had the patience to await Buehler fulfilling his potential. He showed some rust but no loss in stuff after returning from injury in 2016, and 2017 was his national coming out party.
Buehler’s frame gave teams pause, but it hasn’t held him back from showing elite arm strength. He’s listed at 6’2 and 175 lbs. and the weight figure at times looks generous. However, Buehler is a terrific athlete and has the twitchiness to show explosive stuff through plus arm speed. Given his athleticism, he is able to repeat his herky jerky delivery well, with a high three-quarters slot that helps disguise his breaking ball. He can occasionally rush his mechanics and throw his release point off, but his consistency is impressive enough given the recency of his injury lay off.
Buehler has two easy plus pitches, with his fastball being elite. He doesn’t have tremendous life on the pitch, but he consistently sits in the upper 90’s with enough backspin to give the pitch “rise” and hitters little time to pick it up. He controls the pitch well, but he does show more swing and miss potential up in the zone, with the breaking balls working on the lower half.
After the fastball, Buehler’s curveball is his second plus pitch. The curve has true 12-6 shape and like the fastball, is thrown with plus velocity. The pitch doesn’t hop out of the hand like some traditional 12-6 curves, and at times almost looks like a spike curveball. He has good command of the pitch, but given the amount of break he gets on the pitch plus his velocity, it can occasionally be hard to keep in the zone.
Buehler’s slider has plus potential, given that he can touch 90-91 mph with the pitch, but often the pitch looks like a cutter with shorter break. He could use the pitch in the minors to generate ground balls, and his overall ground ball rate of 56% was one of the better numbers in the organization last year. To be a better swing-and-miss pitch, he could add more depth to the offering, but it is a quality go-between from the fastball-curveball.
Buehler showed a change up more frequently in college, but appears to have adopted a firmer change up in the pros. Like the fastball, it isn’t lively but is on the upper bands of velocity for the pitch. It is a clear fourth option for Buehler now but could be an above average offering in the future.
The Dodgers have handled Buehler cautiously since his returned from Tommy John, throwing just 98 innings across four levels last season. While I expect the total to ratchet up in 2018, I don’t expect him to see him throw more than 150 innings this year, even if he’s in a pivotal rotation role by mid-season. Buehler held his stuff into the late innings in college, but hasn’t been asked to work deep much as a pro.
Given a potential innings limit in 2018, the Dodgers could employ Buehler much in the way they used Rich Hill in 2017, going twice through an order before turning the game over to the bullpen. Given the quality of his stuff, he should be able to work consistently into the fifth inning in this role while still keeping his pitch count in check. Should they decide to break him in more softly, he could also be an elite arm in the pen down the stretch, or be deployed in a multiple inning role. The bottom line is that his velocity and stuff will play in any role Los Angeles chooses.
I don’t see a future as a workhorse number one for Buehler, à la Clayton Kershaw or even Julio Urias, so I didn’t give him an 80 grade. He still is close to untouchable as a prospect and could be one of the best arms on the big league club when he finally gets the call. Expect Buehler to factor heavily in the Dodgers’ postseason plans, as either the next best arm in the rotation behind Kershaw, or as an elite bridge to Kenley Jansen in the pen.
2018 top Dodgers prospects
RK | NAME | POS | OD AGE | LEVEL | OVERALL | RISK | CEILING | PROS | CONS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RK | NAME | POS | OD AGE | LEVEL | OVERALL | RISK | CEILING | PROS | CONS |
1 | Walker Buehler | RHSP | 23.08 | AA | 70 | 50 | 70 | FB true ++ pitch, chance for 4 pitches, upside | will fight his command, atypical starter build |
2 | Keibert Ruiz | C | 19.08 | HiA | 70 | 50 | 70 | elite barrel control, rare offensive ceiling for C | receiving can be a little noisy |
3 | Alex Verdugo | CF/RF | 21.10 | MLB | 65 | 55 | 60 | ++ hit tool, bat speed, production, pro readiness | ceiling not as high as peers, ? on power ceiling |
4 | Dennis Santana | RHSP/RP | 21.11 | AA | 65 | 50 | 65 | elite SNK, arm strength, flashes + SL, CH | longterm stamina, release will drop, flatten pitches |
5 | Jeren Kendall | CF | 22.02 | LoA | 65 | 45 | 70 | elite athleticism, ++ speed, + arm and d, productive | swing and miss concerns, a little stiff at the plate |
6 | DJ Peters | CF/RF | 22.04 | HiA | 60 | 45 | 65 | excellent athlete/size, + game power, offensive ceiling | swing and miss concerns, might end up in OF corner |
7 | Yadier Alvarez | RHSP/RP | 22.01 | AA | 60 | 45 | 65 | swing and miss SL, consistently + velo, loose arm | poor command, FB doesn't miss bats, relief profile |
8 | Dustin May | RHSP | 20.07 | HiA | 55 | 45 | 65 | electric arm, high spin rate FB and BB, polished | arm slot lower, easier on LHH, needs strength |
9 | Will Smith | C/2B | 23.00 | AA | 55 | 50 | 55 | + athlete for C, excellent plate discipline, defense | offensive production can fluctuate, atypical C build |
10 | Mitchell White | RHSP/RP | 23.03 | AA | 55 | 45 | 60 | high K potential, chance for + SL and CT, FB Velo | injury history, command wavers, poss. reliever |
11 | Yusniel Diaz | CF/RF | 21.06 | AA | 55 | 50 | 55 | improved swing for pop potential, arm, defensive pot. | in game power lagging, tweener profile |
12 | Cristian Santana | 3B | 21.01 | LoA | 55 | 40 | 65 | excellent build, loose athlete, chance for + power | long swing, chance for swing and miss, raw |
13 | Edwin Rios | 3B/1B | 23.11 | AAA | 55 | 45 | 60 | big raw power, strong, productive hitter, arm strength | avg bat speed, fringy at 3rd, mistake hitter |
14 | Starling Heredia | LF/RF | 19.02 | LoA | 55 | 35 | 70 | man-child physique, huge raw power, upside | still raw at the plate, serious swing and miss |
15 | Morgan Cooper | RHSP | 23.06 | NA | 55 | 50 | 55 | good frame, + BB with BB manipulation, production | injury history, longer arm action, ceiling more #3 |
16 | Gavin Lux | SS | 20.04 | LoA | 55 | 50 | 55 | should stick at SS, athletic, plate discipline at age | overall offensive ceiling, some hit struggles early |
17 | Jordan Sheffield | RHSP/RP | 22.10 | HiA | 55 | 45 | 60 | electric arm, + present fastball and CV, athletic | production doesn't match stuff, likely reliever |
18 | Imani Abdullah | RHSP | 20.11 | LoA | 55 | 45 | 60 | excellent frame, upside, feel for spin on CB | 17 a redshirt year, limited exposure, little stiff |
19 | Kyle Farmer | C/3B | 27.07 | MLB | 50 | 50 | 45 | good feel for hit, offensive profile at C, utility | more productive bench bat then starter, age |
20 | Caleb Ferguson | LHSP | 21.09 | HiA | 50 | 45 | 50 | K production, 3 pitch mix, command, feel for spin | upside more mid rotation, maxed out frame |
21 | Connor Wong | C/2B | 21.10 | LoA | 50 | 45 | 50 | versatile talent, good athlete for a C, solid power prod | some swing and miss, build not projectable |
22 | Josh Sborz | RHSP/RP | 24.03 | AA | 50 | 45 | 50 | high floor, command of three pitches, competitive | stuff has backed up this season, likely reliever |
23 | James Marinan | RHSP | 19.06 | ROK | 50 | 40 | 55 | projectable frame, flashes + SNK, chance for +CH | slurvy BB, more middle than upper rotation upside |
24 | Devin Smeltzer | LHSP | 22.08 | HiA | 50 | 45 | 50 | high pitchability, 3 pitch mix, throws nothing straight | fringe avg velo, 4th or 5th starter ceiling |
25 | Matt Beaty | 1B/LF | 24.11 | AA | 50 | 45 | 50 | excellent feel for hit, career production, game pop | limited ceiling, future defensive home |
26 | Andrew Sopko | RHSP | 23.08 | AA | 50 | 50 | 45 | 3 pitch mix, pitchability, command, deceptive | velo can be fringy, bottom rotation upside |
27 | Ariel Sandoval | CF/RF | 22.05 | HiA | 50 | 35 | 60 | livey athlete, raw power, arm, 2nd half production | too raw at plate, noisey set-up, high swing and miss |
28 | Tim Locastro | SS/2B/CF | 25.09 | AAA | 50 | 45 | 45 | good bat to ball skills, high steal rate, versatile | fringe pop, stretched at SS and CF, upside |
29 | JT Chargois | RHRP | 27.04 | AAA | 50 | 40 | 55 | heavy life on SNK, GB ability, arm strength | limited track record, long injury history, age |
30 | Jake Peter | 2B/SS | 24.11 | AAA | 50 | 45 | 45 | fluid LH swing, arm strength, versatile | utility/bench upside, ? on overall pop |
31 | Yaisel Sierra | RHRP | 27.01 | AAA | 50 | 40 | 50 | good velo, SL will flash +, quick arm | command, incon. release, FB can be straight |
32 | Wilmer Font | RHSP/RP | 27.10 | MLB | 50 | 40 | 50 | excellent K production, rise on FB, + SL | age, previous command issues, upside |
33 | Ibandel Isabel | 1B | 22.09 | HiA | 50 | 30 | 60 | ++ raw power, physical build, strength | huge swing and miss, poor defender, raw |
34 | Mitchell Hansen | CF/RF | 21.11 | SS | 45 | 40 | 55 | chance for 5 tools, upside, projectable frame | struggling to break full season, swing and miss |
35 | Errol Robinson | SS | 23.06 | AA | 45 | 45 | 50 | smooth infield actions, throwing arm, solid athlete | better long speed than SB threat, off. ceiling |
36 | Johan Mieses | RF/CF | 22.09 | AA | 45 | 40 | 55 | impressive arm, defensive ceiling, raw power | serious swing and miss concerns |
37 | Omar Estevez | 2B/SS | 20.01 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 55 | added defensive versatility, some feel for hit | production stagnated at Hi A, power potential |
38 | Donovan Casey | CF/RF | 22.01 | SS | 45 | 45 | 50 | twitchy athlete, production, solid bat to ball skills | ceiling more 4th OF than starter, power ceiling |
39 | Edward Paredes | LHRP | 31.06 | MLB | 45 | 45 | 45 | K production, tough on LHH, + SL | age, one pitch reliever, LOOGY upside |
40 | Rob Segedin | 3B/LF | 29.05 | MLB | 45 | 45 | 45 | hit vs lefties, gets most of tools, avg pop | bench bat upside, limited defender, upside |
41 | Drew Jackson | SS/2B | 24.09 | AA | 45 | 40 | 50 | elite athlete, + to ++ speed and arm strength | offense improving but limited ceiling, utility upside |
42 | Wills Montgomerie | RHSP/RP | 22.10 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | spin rate, durable build, flashes + velo and CV | uneven production, command wavers |
43 | Cody Thomas | RF | 23.06 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 55 | great build, good athlete, chance for above avg pop | still raw, swing and miss concerns |
44 | Jesen Therrien | RHRP | 25.00 | AAA | 45 | 45 | 45 | SL flashes +, good command and K production | TJ wipes out '18. middle relief/ROOGY upside |
45 | Carlos Rincon | RF | 20.06 | SS | 45 | 35 | 55 | big raw power, physical upside, bat speed | pretty raw offensively, serious swing and miss |
46 | Kyle Garlick | CF/RF/LF | 26.02 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | productive, feel for hitting, avg pop | 4th outfielder profile, age, fringe speed |
47 | Luke Raley | LF/RF | 23.06 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 50 | muscular build, chance for above avg pop | just avg bat speed, possible swing and miss |
48 | Luis Paz | 1B/C | 21.09 | SS | 45 | 40 | 50 | power production, bat speed, strong build | ? on ultimate defensive home, avg athlete |
49 | Riley Ottesen | RHRP | 23.05 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | good velo, will flash + SL, arm speed | poor college production, likely reliever only |
50 | Rylan Bannon | 3B | 21.11 | SS | 45 | 45 | 45 | college/pro production, good feel for hit, game pop | skills over tools, ceiling, possible utility upside |
51 | Leo Crawford | LHSP | 21.01 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | solid production, command of 3 pitch mix | fringe velo, not as projectable, likely back end |
52 | Zach Reks | LF/RF | 24.05 | HiA | 45 | 45 | 45 | feel for hit, on base skills, productive | - power, age, 4th OF profile |
53 | Romer Cuadrado | LF/RF | 20.08 | SS | 45 | 35 | 55 | excellent frame, chance for + raw power | development lagging behind age, swing and miss |
54 | Ryan Moseley | RHRP | 23.06 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | chance for ++ snk, big groundball potential | struggles with command, results don't match stuff |
55 | Jared Walker | 3B/RF | 22.02 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | + size/athleticism combo, chance for hit/power, + arm | raw, buggy whip swing, error prone in IF |
56 | Zach Pop | RHRP | 21.06 | NA | 45 | 40 | 50 | good life/velo combo on FB, solid build, poss. CH | mid relief profile, SL loses shape in low slot |
57 | Corey Copping | RHRP | 24.03 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | good SL, bulldog mentality, decent production | FB velo avg to fringe, middle relief ceiling |
58 | Shea Spitzbarth | RHRP | 23.06 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | agressive mound demeanor, arm strength, CV | middle relief upside, maxed out frame, size |
59 | Layne Somsen | RHRP | 28.10 | AA | 45 | 45 | 45 | tough overhead BB, production, athletic | limited mid relief ceiling, age, avg FB velo |
60 | Tony Gonsolin | RHRP | 23.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 50 | arm speed, flashes + SL, solid K production | lithe build, not quite late relief upside |
61 | Alfredo Tavarez | RHSP/RP | 20.04 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 50 | king sized frame, arm strength, K production | still raw mechanically, repeating arm slot, command |
62 | Aneurys Zabala | RHRP | 21.03 | LoA | 45 | 40 | 50 | will flash ++ arm strength, some feel for spin | relief profile, command, limited physical upside |
63 | Michael Boyle | LHSP | 23.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | pitch movement, pitchability, 3 pitches | no plus pitch, fringy velo, #5 starter/swingman |
64 | Jefrey Souffront | 2B/3B | 20.11 | ROK | 45 | 35 | 50 | some feel for hit, quick bat, mature plate approach | distance from the majors, build not projectable |
65 | Jacob Amaya | SS/2B | 19.02 | ROK | 45 | 35 | 50 | chance to stick at SS, good athlete, some feel for hit | distance from majors, offensive ceiling |
66 | Ronny Brito | SS | 19.00 | SS | 45 | 35 | 50 | infield actions, long athlete, chance to hit | ? on overall offensive potential, far from majors |
67 | Logan Crouse | RHRP | 21.04 | LoA | 45 | 35 | 50 | size, projectability, athleticism in delivery, arm action | Fringy present velo, lots of projection left |
68 | Chris Mathewson | RHSP/RP | 21.10 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | SNK/SL mix, solid production, command | back of rotation, middle relief upside, fringe velo |
69 | Adam Bray | RHSP | 24.11 | HiA | 45 | 40 | 45 | durability, feel for spin, good command | fringe starter upside, upside, avg K potential |
70 | Brian Moran | LHRP | 29.06 | AA | 40 | 40 | 45 | funk in delivery, tough in LHH, K potential | limited ceiling, fringe velo, age |
71 | Nolan Long | RHRP | 24.02 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | long frame, athletic for size, FB flashes + | long levers to control, command, likely reliever |
72 | Mike Ahmed | 1B/3B | 26.02 | AA | 40 | 40 | 45 | productive in '16, swing plane, avg pop | bat speed, age, limited upside |
73 | Nathan Witt | RHRP | 21.11 | ROK | 40 | 35 | 50 | good build, projectable, arm strength | project arm, distance from majors, relief upside |
74 | Travis Taijeron | LF/RF | 29.02 | AAA | 40 | 40 | 45 | good career power production, physical build | age, defensive upside, swing and miss concern |
75 | Jacob Scavuzzo | LF | 24.02 | AAA | 40 | 40 | 45 | solid tool profile, still a chance for upside | game going backward, struggling hit tool |
76 | Max Gamboa | RHRP | 22.04 | ROK | 40 | 35 | 50 | excellent arm strength, + to ++ velo, good frame | production does not match stuff, incon. SL |
77 | Dean Kremer | RHRP | 22.03 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | decent athleticism and frame, K production, sink on FB | was hit hard in HiA. Homer prone, no + pitch |
78 | Moises Perez | 2B | 20.08 | LoA | 40 | 40 | 45 | loose athlete, some feel for hit | offensive ceiling, lower on defensive spectrum |
79 | Isaac Anderson | RHSP/RP | 24.07 | HiA | 40 | 40 | 45 | versatile arm, some SNK on FB, avg SL | no plus or above avg tool, low ceiling, taxi arm |