Dodgers 2018 top prospects: No. 4, Dennis Santana

When I had to leave Dennis Santana off the 2017 prospect list due to a lack of information, I had a feeling I was missing out on a top-20 guy. What I did not expect was to see the combination of stuff and performance during the year to make him the No. 44 prospect and best arm behind Walker Buehler. Santana’s heavy sinker and power slider allow him to exceed the traditional ceiling of the typical low-slot arm, with surprising control of that movement to boot.

As a former middle infielder, Santana’s plus athleticism comes as no surprise. He is a fluid mover and looks a bit bigger than his listed 6’2 160-lb. frame. He has an extremely quick arm and generates some of the most electric natural movement on his pitches in the entire organization. Despite his athleticism, Santana does not always repeat his delivery, with his arm slot occasionally dropping to low three-quarters, flattening out his sinker and slider.

While Santana has the repertoire to work deep and games, and has generally proven durable, he did show fatigue and a drop in stuff during the middle of his Double-A call up last season, and he had to be shut down in 2016 after exceeding 105 innings. As a former infielder lacking in consistent arm conditioning, this is not concerning at this point, and Santana’s form rebounded through Tulsa’s deep playoff run.

When healthy, Santana can run his heavy fastball up into the mid 90s, reaching as high as 97 mph. His sinker has late life and is tough for hitters to square, helping him to a 51% ground ball rate. Even when fatigued, Santana’s sinker had enough movement in the low 90s that his can pitch almost exclusively off it for stretches and avoid hard contact. Despite the life and low arm slot, Santana throws the pitch for strikes and shows enough command to both sides of the plate to suggest his higher Double-A walk rate was not indicative of his true ability.

Santana will flash a real plus slider that isn’t quite in the realm of Buehler or Yadier Alvarez’s versions but generates plenty of swing and miss in its own right. He can play with the shape and speed of the pitch, sometimes appearing to have 11-5 curve shape. The slider is less consistent than the sinker, as he will lose command and shape when fatigued and dropping his arm slot too low.

Santana will throw a changeup that is effective from his slot with plus fade. He generally doesn’t need the pitch given the life on the other two offerings, but increasing the use of the pitch during 2018 should prepare him for the eventual jump to the major leagues.

So far Santana has defied the traditional tropes on the sinker-slider profile. His velocity-movement combo gives him more swing and miss than the typical player of his ilk, but he has also shown advanced command for his experience level that you don’t normally see from harder throwing sinker-slider guys.

Santana will just turn 22 during the 2018 season, and his return to Tulsa feels like the best fit for his progress. He surprised with his dominance in the California League over the first half, but needs to prove his uneven Double-A debut had more to do with mid-season fatigue than any issues with more advanced hitters. Given how frequently Santana could work deep into starts and hold his stuff during the California League, I’m confident Santana can continue to develop as a starter and I generally don’t subscribe to the theory that low-slot, sinker-slider guys are destined for relief duty.

While Santana has the arm strength and velocity for the modern game, his ceiling likely resides in the first division number three starter territory with enough bat missing ability to feature in a playoff rotation. He’s had a taste of Double-A and dazzled in the Texas League playoffs, but he’s not quite knocking on the big league door. Santana’s 2018 goal should be to earn a mid-season call up to Oklahoma City, with an opportunity to break into the Los Angeles rotation some time during the 2019 season. While competition for roles on the Dodgers’ staff has become increasingly more fierce, few players on the current 25-man roster can boast the natural arm talent of Dennis Santana.