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Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz lead Dodgers prospect lists

Gray ranked first, Ruiz second on both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus lists

MLB: JUL 16 Dodgers Summer Camp Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Welcome to prospect list season, with a pair of Dodgers lists released this week. First up was FanGraphs on Tuesday with a 47-deep list. On Wednesday, Baseball Prospectus kept it simple with their 10 best prospects in the system. Both agreed that pitcher Josiah Gray got the top spot, with catcher Keibert Ruiz No. 2.

Gray and Jeter Downs were acquired in December 2018 in a trade with the Reds that held the dual purposes of averting the competitive balance tax in 2019 — by trading Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood — and adding minor league talent. Downs, a shortstop, was traded to Boston in the Mookie Betts deal, and the pitcher Gray remains as the Dodgers’ top prospect.

Gray, who was at the Dodgers alternate site at USC during the 2020 season, projects as “a mid-rotation stalwart” per Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs.

“His changeup, which he seldom used in 2019, induced some ugly swings during the Dodgers’ pre-season intrasquad games, so it appears that offering has made a leap,” Longenhagen wrote. “Gray has been making constant adjustments to his repertoire for the last couple of years and has not only succeeded but quickly became good enough to compete (in a practice environment) against the lineup that would eventually win the World Series.”

Ruiz made his major league debut in 2020, hitting a home run in his first major league at-bat. There’s still some development to be had. From Baseball Prospectus:

Ruiz is only 22, and hasn’t dominated the high minors yet, so he has a little more time to burn. He’ll spend some of that time in 2021 hanging out in Oklahoma City, where we hope to see the bat take a step or two back forward.

Seven players are in the Dodgers top 10 prospects at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. The other in both top-5 lists is second baseman Michael Busch, one of the club’s first-round picks in 2019 out of North Carolina.

Miguel Vargas, a third baseman signed out of Cuba in 2017 who turned 21 in November, is the highest ranked among the prospects not in both top 10s. He’s ranked third by BP, and 12th by FanGraphs.

Another Cuban signed in 2017, outfielder Andy Pages, is ranked fourth by FanGraphs and listed among the “Prospects to dream on a little” just outside the Dodgers’ top 10. “If he stays in center, he has a star-level ceiling,” Longenhagen wrote at FanGraphs. “If not, then he has a whiff-prone, traditional right field profile driven by obvious impact power.”

Here are the lists for both. FanGraphs gives a Future Value (FV) grade, while BP calls theirs Overall Future Potential (OFP). Both are on the 20-80 scouting scale.

Dodgers top prospects for 2021

Player Pos 2021 age* FanGraphs FG FV Baseball Prospectus BP OFP
Player Pos 2021 age* FanGraphs FG FV Baseball Prospectus BP OFP
Josiah Gray SP 23 1 55 1 60
Keibert Ruiz C 22 2 50 2 60
Michael Busch 2B 23 3 50 4 55
Jacob Amaya SS 22 5 50 9 50
Bobby Miller SP 22 8 45+ 6 55
Diego Cartaya C 19 10 45 5 55
Miguel Vargas 3B 21 12 45 3 60
Andy Pages CF 20 4 50 n/a n/a
Kody Hoese 3B 23 9 45 8 50
Clayton Beeter RP 22 7 45+ n/a n/a
Andre Jackson RHP 25 13 45 7 50
Ryan Pepiot RP 23 6 45+ n/a n/a
Gerardo Carrillo RHP 22 16 40+ 10 50
*age as of June 30, 2021 Sources: FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus