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Dodgers composite free agent rankings & contract predictions

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MLB: World Series-Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Dodgers have their largest and most impactful group of free agents in some time, so let’s look at what various national publications have to say about how they stack up on this market.

Eleven Dodgers became free agents the morning after the World Series, then Joe Kelly’s option was declined a few days later. Five of the 12 free agents have achieved consensus as among the most-coveted on the market, so we’ll focus on them here.

Corey Seager resides in the highest tier of free agents, along with fellow shortstop Carlos Correa setting themselves apart from the rest. Of the 13 free agent rankings we found, 12 have Seager as No. 2 behind Correa, with only Jim Bowden at The Athletic putting Seager in the top spot.

Seager’s expected contract is expected to be long, between 7-10 years from the publications that made financial predictions, in the neighborhood of $30 million per year. Whether he signs such a deal before the December 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement remains to be seen.

The other consensus top-10 free agent from the Dodgers is Scherzer, rated as high as fourth (FanGraphs, MLB.com, TSN, Bowden, New York Post) and as low as 10th (Keith Law at the Athletic), with an average ranking of sixth. At 37 years old, Scherzer isn’t predicted to get longer than three years from anyone, but his average annual value is expected to be massive ($37 million), though that is somewhat skewed by Bowden escaping reality with his three-year, $150 million guess.

Chris Taylor is up next with an average free agent ranking of 17th, with several of the contract predictions as well as the average (four years, $65 million) right in line with our crowdsource guess here at True Blue LA (four years, $62 million).

Uncertainty surrounds the market for Clayton Kershaw, who was not extended a qualifying offer by the Dodgers, a maneuver Andrew Friedman described as out of respect for not wanting to accelerate Kershaw’s decision timetable. Kershaw’s elbow injury throws another wrench into his immediate future, which explains why MLB Trade Rumors, Ben Clemens at FanGraphs, and Bowden all picked only a one-year contract for the left-hander.

A bounce-back season by Kenley Jansen strengthens his market, with his rankings ranging from 18th (R.J. Anderson at CBS Sports) to 35th (Kiley McDaniel at ESPN, Law). Jansen wasn’t listed on the MLB.com list, which was 25 players deep. Five salary predictions have Jansen getting a two-year contract this winter, with Ken Davidoff at the New York Post predicting a three-year, $40 million deal, the same contract Will Smith signed with Atlanta two years ago.

Dodgers free agent rankings & contract predictions

Site Seager Scherzer Taylor Kershaw Jansen
Site Seager Scherzer Taylor Kershaw Jansen
FanGraphs (Clemens) 2nd (8/$240m) 4th (2/$70m) 16th (4/$60m) 18th (1/$18m) 25th (2/$30m)
ESPN (McDaniel) 2nd (7/$210m) 7th (3/$90m) 22nd (3/$39m) 12th (3/$54m) 35th (2/$18m)
NY Post (Davidoff) 2nd (10/$305m) 4th (3/$110m) 12th (5/$100m) 14th (3/$80m) 29th (3/$40m)
MLB Trade Rumors 2nd (10/$305m) 9th (3/$120m) 16th (4/$64m) 33rd (1/$20m) 29th (2/$26m)
The Athletic (Bowden) 1st (10/$320m) 4th (3/$150m) 22nd (4/$64m) 17th (1/$15m) 15th (2/$40m)
FanGraphs (crowd) n/a (7/$196m) n/a (3/$96m) n/a (4/$60m) n/a (4/$104m) n/a (2/$24m)
MLB dot com 2nd 4th 21st 18th NR
CBS Sports (Anderson) 2nd 7th 12th 14th 18th
Baseball Prospectus 2nd 7th 21st 17th 29th
The Athletic (Law) 2nd 10th 12th 22nd 35th
Sporting News (Fagan) 2nd 6th 15th 18th 28th
Sports Illustrated 2nd 7th 16th 13th 25th
USA Today (Lacques) 2nd 6th 14th 26th 24th
TSN 2nd 4th 18th 19th 24th
Forbes (John Perrotto) n/a (10/$320m) n/a n/a n/a n/a
Average rank 2nd 6th 17th 19th 26th
Average contract 8.9 yrs/$271m 2.8 yrs/$106m 4 yrs/$65m 2.2 yrs/$49m 2.2 yrs/$30m

Danny Duffy is ranked on six of the 13 lists, ranging from 34th to 50th. MLB Trade Rumros has him 48th, predicting a one-year, $10 million contract. MLBTR projects a two-year, $18 million deal for Corey Knebel, whose rankings (when listed) range from 32nd to 71st (Gabe Lacques’ list at USA Today is 106 players long).

Joe Kelly is ranked 55th on the USA Today list. His only other ranking mention comes from ESPN, where McDaniel projects for Kelly a two-year, $11 million deal.