Trea Turner declines Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as expected

Trea Turner declined the qualifying offer from the Dodgers on Tuesday, an expected move that will secure draft pick compensation for Los Angeles should the shortstop sign elsewhere.

Tuesday was the deadline for players to accept or decline the qualifying offer. Turner was one of 14 major league players to receive a qualifying offer last Thursday, along with pitcher Tyler Anderson, who also rejected the Dodgers offer en route to signing a reported three-year deal with the Angels.

The qualifying offer this offseason is $19.65 million, set each year as the average of the top 125 major league salaries. It’s up 6.8 percent over last year’s $18.4 million.

It’s no surprise Turner rejected the qualifying offer, since he’s bound to cash in as a free agent after hitting .298/.343/.466, a 128 wRC+ with 21 home runs, 39 doubles, and 27 stolen bases for the Dodgers in 2022. And, as Jon Hamm reminded us, Turner has the second-best fWAR in baseball over the last four seasons (20.0), trailing only Aaron Judge.

Turner is ranked in the top five free agents on various national lists, and his contract predictions from ESPN, FanGraphs, The Athletic, MLB Trade Rumors, and the New York Post are all at least eight years at over $30 million per season. Turner, entering his age-30 season, is one of four excellent shortstops on the free agent market this offseason, along with Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.

Should Turner sign elsewhere, the Dodgers will get a compensatory draft pick. As a competitive balance tax payor, that pick will be after the fourth round of the 2023 draft.

The qualifying offer system was introduced after the 2012 season. In eleven years, the Dodgers have extended a dozen qualifying offers. Two players have accepted — Brett Anderson (2015), Hyun-jin Ryu (2019), and Anderson (2023). Of the previous eight players who rejected the qualifying offer, four players re-signed with the Dodgers in free agency.