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Trea Turner declines Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as expected

LA would receive 2023 draft pick after 4th round if Turner signs elsewhere

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MLB: OCT 12 NLDS TBA at Dodgers Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Trea Turner declined the qualifying offer from the Dodgers on Tuesday, an expected move that will secure draft pick compensation for Los Angeles should the shortstop sign elsewhere.

Tuesday was the deadline for players to accept or decline the qualifying offer. Turner was one of 14 major league players to receive a qualifying offer last Thursday, along with pitcher Tyler Anderson, who also rejected the Dodgers offer en route to signing a reported three-year deal with the Angels.

The qualifying offer this offseason is $19.65 million, set each year as the average of the top 125 major league salaries. It’s up 6.8 percent over last year’s $18.4 million.

It’s no surprise Turner rejected the qualifying offer, since he’s bound to cash in as a free agent after hitting .298/.343/.466, a 128 wRC+ with 21 home runs, 39 doubles, and 27 stolen bases for the Dodgers in 2022. And, as Jon Hamm reminded us, Turner has the second-best fWAR in baseball over the last four seasons (20.0), trailing only Aaron Judge.

Turner is ranked in the top five free agents on various national lists, and his contract predictions from ESPN, FanGraphs, The Athletic, MLB Trade Rumors, and the New York Post are all at least eight years at over $30 million per season. Turner, entering his age-30 season, is one of four excellent shortstops on the free agent market this offseason, along with Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.

Should Turner sign elsewhere, the Dodgers will get a compensatory draft pick. As a competitive balance tax payor, that pick will be after the fourth round of the 2023 draft.

The qualifying offer system was introduced after the 2012 season. In eleven years, the Dodgers have extended a dozen qualifying offers. Two players have accepted — Brett Anderson (2015), Hyun-jin Ryu (2019), and Anderson (2023). Of the previous eight players who rejected the qualifying offer, four players re-signed with the Dodgers in free agency.

Dodgers qualifying offer history

Player Year QO amount Decision Contract Team Comp pick
Player Year QO amount Decision Contract Team Comp pick
2014 Hanley Ramirez $15,300,000 Rejected 4 years, $88m Red Sox Kyle Funkhouser, RHP*
2015 Brett Anderson $15,800,000 Accepted 1 year, $15.8m Dodgers n/a
2015 Zack Greinke $15,800,000 Rejected 6 years, $206.5m D-backs Will Smith, C
2015 Howie Kendrick $15,800,000 Rejected 2 years, $20m Dodgers n/a
2016 Kenley Jansen $17,200,000 Rejected 5 years, $80m Dodgers n/a
2016 Justin Turner $17,200,000 Rejected 4 years, $64m Dodgers n/a
2018 Yasmani Grandal $17,900,000 Rejected 1 year, $18.25m Brewers Jimmy Lewis, RHP
2018 Hyun-jin Ryu $17,900,000 Accepted 1 year, $17.9m Dodgers n/a
2021 Corey Seager $18,400,000 Rejected 10 years, $325m Rangers forfeited (Freeman)
2021 Chris Taylor $18,400,000 Rejected 4 years, $60m Dodgers n/a
2022 Tyler Anderson $19,650,000 Rejected 3 years, $39m Angels after 4th round, 2023
2022 Trea Turner $19,650,000 Rejected TBD TBD TBD
*Funkhouser did not sign