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How Julio Urías stacks up against his National League Cy Young Award competition

One of Urías, Sandy Alcantara, and Max Fried will win the NL Cy Young Award.

Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

Julio Urías will finish in the top three in voting for the 2022 National League Cy Young Award, as announced by the Baseball Writers Association of America on Monday. Let’s see how he compares with his fellow top-three finishers, Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara and Braves left-hander Max Fried.

The Cy Young Awards will be announced on Wednesday, November 16, during a show on MLB Network that begins at 3 p.m. PT.

Urías by all accounts had a fantastic season, leading the National League in ERA (2.16) and ERA+ (194), finished second in wins (17), and was third in WHIP (0.931) and batting average allowed (.199). He was the rock atop the Dodgers rotation all season, earning his first career Game 1 postseason start in the NLDS. Urías earned the Dodgers’ only win of the series against San Diego.

But Urías faces stiff competition in the form of Alcantara, whose 228⅔ innings were 23⅔ more than any other major league pitcher. The Marlins right-hander pitched six complete games while the rest of the National League pitched 13, nobody else with more than two. On a rate status, Alcantara was right there with Urías, finishing second in ERA and with a similar WHIP, strikeout rate, and walk rate.

Alcantara also pitched 30-percent more innings than Urías, who totaled 175 frames. To put that in perspective, Alcantara essentially had the season Urías had, but also added the equivalent of a quality full-time reliever, with a 2.68 ERA over his 53⅔ extra innings.

One of the strongest arguments for Urías is that he pitched for a contender so his games mattered more, but to be clear, the Cy Young is an individual award. That same argument can be flipped, as the lowly Marlins were 19-13 (.594) in games started by Alcantara, and 50-80 (.385) otherwise. It’s not Steve Carlton winning 27 games for a 59-win Phillies team, but when Alcantara pitched he made a bad team good.

For what it’s worth, MLB players voted for Alcantara is the NL Outstanding Pitcher, with Urías and D-backs righty Gallen finishing in the top three.

2022 National League Cy Young top three

Statistic Julio Urías Sandy Alcantara Max Fried
Statistic Julio Urías Sandy Alcantara Max Fried
ERA 2.16 (1st) 2.28 (2nd) 2.48 (3rd)
ERA+ 194 (1st) 178 (2nd) 164 (3rd)
FIP 3.71 (t-16th) 2.99 (t-5th) 2.70 (3rd)
FIP- 93 (13th) 77 (5th) 69 (3rd)
IP 175 (19th) 228⅔ (1st) 185⅓ (9th)
Wins 17-7 (2nd) 14-9 (t-9th) 14-7 (t-9th)
Strikeouts 166 (19th) 207 (4th) 170 (17th)
K rate 24.1% (8th) 23.4% (11th) 23.2% (12th)
Walk rate 6.0% (8th) 5.6% (6th) 4.4% (2nd)
K-BB rate 18.1% (9th) 17.7% (10th) 18.8% (8th)
K/BB rate 4.05 (10th) 4.14 (7th) 5.31 (3rd)
WHIP .960 (3rd) .980 (6th) 1.014 (8th)
BA against .199 (3rd) .212 (6th) .225 (9th)
OPS against .599 (6th) .588 (5th) .581 (3rd)
Complete games 0 (t-14th) 6 (1st) 0 (t-14th)
fWAR 3.2 (13th) 5.7 (3rd) 5.0 (4th)
bWAR 4.9 (8th) 8.1 (1st) 5.9 (3rd)

Fried rounding out the trio means the top three NL Cy Young finishers also finished in the top three in ERA and ERA+.

But in the end my guess is this award goes to Alcantara, who has such a large innings gap over everyone else, and provided more for his team than any other National League pitcher.

Should Urías finish second, he’d join a long history of Dodgers runner-ups in Cy Young balloting.