The Dodgers last week faced two Brewers pitchers who received Cy Young votes last year, but this time around they will face one, with Corbin Burnes starting on Tuesday. He beat Los Angeles last Thursday, though the Dodgers knock him out with three runs in the sixth inning.
Milwaukee will also send two left-handed starters to the mound in this series, with Eric Lauer starting the opener and Aaron Ashby going on Wednesday. Southpaws aren’t Kryptonite for the Dodgers, who are hitting a well above-average .250/.326/.425 and 112 wRC+ against lefties. But it is their weaker side, with LA crushing right-handers to the tune of .265/.340/.463 and an MLB-best 125 wRC+.
Where the Brewers stand is pretty much the same as last week, at the moment the odd team out in a jumbled race for wild card spots. A seven-game win streak by St. Louis widened the Cardinals’ advantage over Milwaukee in the National League Central to five games.
Entering Monday, the Cardinals had a 95-percent chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs (including 84.6 percent to win the division), and 91.5 percent per Baseball Prospectus. The division-leading Dodgers and Mets are at 100 percent to make the playoffs per both, and top wild card Atlanta joins the cinch group at 99.7 percent to make the playoffs per BP and 99.9 percent at FanGraphs.
That leaves the three other NL teams with winning records vying or two playoff spots, with only one loss separating the three:
Padres 68-56 (77.5 percent per BP, 75.9 percent at FG)
Phillies 66-55 (73.4 percent FG, 67.2 percent BP)
Brewers 64-56 (60.2 percent BP, 52.5 percent FG)
The Dodgers have won nine straight home games, and 20 of their last 21 at Dodger Stadium. Since the start of 2019, in 250 regular season home games the Dodgers have 181 wins, a .724 winning percentage.
On the season, the Dodgers have won an astounding 70 percent of their games. Over the last 50, they’ve won 80 percent. Over the past 20 games, they’ve won 85 percent. It’s an incredible run, no matter how you slice it.
Julio Urías starts the opener on Monday, with six days of rest after last Monday’s five scoreless innings in Milwaukee. The left-hander has won his last six starts and last ten decisions. The last time the Dodgers lost a Urías start was June 12.
Urías, who has a 1.99 ERA to go with his 10-0 record in his last 11 starts, is the second Dodgers pitcher to win double-digit decisions in a row this season. Tony Gonsolin was 11-0 with a 1.62 ERA through his first 16 starts.
Gonsolin, once again the National League ERA leader, starts the middle game of the series against Burnes, and Andrew Heaney goes in the finale.