Will Smith is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time

The calendar has turned to 2023, and January brings with it salary arbitration. The Dodgers have ten players on the roster who are eligible for salary arbitration, with the salary exchange date coming on Friday, January 13.

One of the more intriguing Dodgers going through the process is catcher Will Smith. With three years, 90 days of major league service time, Smith is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time. Now we just have to find comparable catchers with his level of production at that point in their careers.

Catching is the most demanding position in baseball, combined with the physical demands for crouching nearly 200 times per game and the mental task of nurturing a multitude of pitchers. Understandably, catchers collectively across MLB had the lowest batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage among all positions in 2022, hitting .228/.295/.368 with an 89 wRC+. So if you find a catcher who can actually hit, he’s worth his weight in gold. But also in dollars, as Smith will find out in his first time through the salary arbitration process.

Smith has yet to make an All-Star team, but he is elite. In 2022, Smith hit .260/.343/.465 with a 127 wRC+, leading major league catchers in runs batted in (87), and was second at the position in home runs (24) and total bases (236). He was such a good hitter that he batted cleanup for a Dodgers team that led the majors in runs scored and was such an indispensable part of the lineup that he started 24 games at designated hitter in addition to his catching duties. Smith was recognized at the end of the season, earning second-team All-MLB honors at catcher, with J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies garnering first-team status.

Last year, two starting catchers went through the arb process with similar service time to Smith — Carson Kelly earned $3.325 million from the D-backs and Jacob Stallings made $2.45 million with the Marlins. Both catchers were Super Two players the year before, among the top 22 percent of players with more than two and less than three years of service time, so this was actually their second time through salary arbitration. Smith’s production blows both away.

On the higher end, Realmuto made $2.7 million in 2018 with Miami in his first arb year, but hadn’t really broken out yet. Same for Yasmani Grandal, who made $2.8 million with the Dodgers in 2016 but hadn’t yet hit more than 16 home runs in a season. Over the next four years, he hit 101 homers. Salvador Perez signed a long-term contract with the Royals in 2012 after just 39 major league games, and never went through the arbitration process.

Luckily there are a few comparable catchers we can use to gain some understanding at what Smith might earn in 2023.

Sean Murphy was arbitration-eligible this offseason, but just 15 days after getting traded to Atlanta, he signed the mandatory contract extension seemingly required by Braves young players. Murphy’s six-year, $73-million contract extension will pay him $4 million in 2023. We can’t really use this as a comp for Smith’s arbitration, but Murphy — the only major league catcher with more plate appearances in 2022 than Smith — at least provides a rubric should the Dodgers decide to ink Smith to a long-term deal.

Smith had a better launch season in 2022 than both Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras did in 2019. Offensively, Smith was better than both catchers to that point in their careers. By Wins Above Replacement, Sanchez and Contreras each were rated higher than Smith in their careers to that point by Baseball Reference. Smith outpaces Contreras and is on par with Sanchez by FanGraphs WAR.

Among all pre-arb players in 2022, Smith was rated in the top 13 in MLB, earning a collective-bargaining-agreement-mandated bonus of “just shy of $1 million,” per Mark Feinsand at MLB.com. In salary, Smith earned $730,000 in 2022.

It seems that just by inflation, Smith should easily surpass Sanchez’s $5-million salary from three years ago. Steve Adams and Matt Swartz at MLB Trade Rumors in their arbitration projections in October tabbed Smith for a $5.2-million salary.

My guess is that Smith beats that, and will earn $5.5 million in 2023.