Dodgers relievers salary arbitration preview

For our next Dodgers salary arbitration preview, we’ll look at a quartet of relief pitchers in one fell swoop.

Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol are Super Two players, among the top 22 percent in service time among players with at least two but not yet three years of major league service time. Yency Almonte has three years, 143 days of service time and would have been a Super Two last year but was sent outright to the minors by the Rockies before opting for free agency. Caleb Ferguson has four years, 88 days of service time and is going through arbitration for a second time.

I’m lumping all four relievers together because all have relatively modest salary projections from MLB Trade Rumors, and they also compiled the bulk of their career Wins Above Replacement in 2022.

None of the four Dodgers relievers have much closing experience, with Brusdar Graterol’s five career saves (counting one in the postseason) outpacing the combined total of the other three pitchers.

Pitchers with saves help set an upper limit of sorts for relievers with similar service time in arbitration. Using last year for instance, Giovanny Gallegos ($2.41 million), Scott Barlow ($2.4 million), Diego Castillo ($2.15 million), Paul Sewald ($1.735 million) all had double-digit saves, and Andrew Kittredge ($1.85 million) had eight saves.

Jonathan Loáisaga ($1.65 million) was the highest-paid non-closer in his first time through arbitration in 2022, and even he saved five games for the Yankees in 2021. Loáisiga had a 2.17 ERA, 2.18 xERA, and 2.58 FIP in 70⅔ innings in 2021, and 150 major league innings through his first four seasons. He had 3.3 bWAR and 2.4 fWAR in 2021, and through his first four seasons had 3.8 bWAR and 3.0 fWAR to go with a 3.36 ERA and 3.51 FIP.

Let’s look at Phillips and Graterol, compared to Super Two pitchers from last offseason.

Phillips and Graterol each had better seasons than any of those four pitchers last year, and should easily clear the $1.25 million Tim Mayza made in 2022. I’ll guess $1.6 million for Phillips and $1.35 million for Graterol.

As for Almonte, his projection seems awfully low. He signed a minor league contract last offseason with the Dodgers, but his major league salary in the pact was $1.5 million, so it seems unlikely he’d go back down to the $1 million MLB Trade Rumors projected for him.

But how far off is it? Let’s look at some pitchers with similar service time over the last few years.

Almonte doesn’t have the bulk career numbers of this group, but he should be able to clear Noé Ramirez’s $1.175 million from two years ago. I think the most comparable player of this group to Almonte is Kahnle, If you give Almonte a bump for his strong, albeit injury-shortened 2022 season, in which he had the second-best Dodgers ERA among pitchers with at least 30 innings, I’ll pencil in Almonte for $1.5 million.

That leaves Ferguson, who made $762,500 in his first year through the salary arbitration process, after missing all of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

That missed season limits Ferguson’s bulk career numbers relative to other recent players with four years of service time, but I think I found someone close enough from last offseason:

• Ryan Brasier through 2021: 135⅓ IP, 3.39 ERA, 138 ERA+, 3.82 FIP, 136 K, 47 BB, 7 saves, 2.4 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR
• Ferguson through 2022: 147 IP, 3.43 ERA, 120 ERA+, 3.96 FIP, 177 K, 59 BB, 2 saves, 1.1 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR

Brasier made $1.4 million last year, and I think Ferguson is close enough in career numbers and is further removed from his injury (Brasier missed five months in 2021 with a calf strain). Perhaps Brasier separates himself with the five extra saves, so let’s guess $1.3 million for Ferguson in 2023.

Friday, January 13 is the date for teams and players to exchange salary figures if they don’t come to an agreement first.