Josue De Paula, Michael Busch, and other Dodgers prospect ranking notes

Within the last week, a pair of major national outlets unveiled their top Dodgers prospects lists. FanGraphs provided their top 51 prospects for the team last Thursday, and Baseball America revealed their top ten Dodgers prospects on Monday.

Combined with the Baseball Prospectus team list that came out just before Christmas, a few patters have emerged. On all three lists, catcher Diego Cartaya was rated the top Dodgers prospect, and pitcher Bobby Miller was number two. Miguel Vargas, who got his first taste of the majors last season, is ranked third in the system by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, and fourth at FanGraphs.

But let’s look at a few other notable items with the recent FanGraphs and Baseball America lists.

Josue De Paula signed with the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic last January, and doesn’t turn 18 until June. But the outfielder impressed enough in his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League that Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs ranked De Paula the seventh-best prospect in a very deep system.

Already listed at 6’3, 200 pounds, De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 20 extra-base hits in 53 games and more walks (32) than strikeouts (31), all at age 17, which earned him a spot in instructional league after the season.

“The comps that scouts (not just Dodgers personnel, scouts from outside the org) are throwing around here are borderline irresponsible, star DH/LF types who are currently among the most dangerous hitters in baseball,” Longenhagen wrote. “De Paula’s size is likely to push him way, way down the defensive spectrum, maybe even off of it entirely, but the ceiling on his bat is so huge that it may not matter.”

De Paula was not listed on the full Baseball Prospectus Dodgers list, which included 23 players. Baseball America on Monday provided the top ten Dodgers prospects, with the top-30 team prospects coming later, as BA’s annual prospect handbook becomes available.

Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus had similar lists, at least at the top, with nine matching players in the top ten of both lists. The missing player in BP’s top ten was Ryan Pepiot, who made his debut for the Dodgers in 2022. He checked in at No. 5 on this year’s Baseball America list, and was tabbed by BA as having the best changeup in LA’s system.

“Pepiot projects to be a hard-throwing starter who goes five innings before handing it off to his bullpen,” said BA’s scouting report. “He has the stuff to be an elite setup man or potential closer.”

Nick Frasso, who was acquired in the four-player Mitch White trade to Toronto in August, was ranked eighth by Baseball Prospectus but was out of the top ten at both Baseball America and FanGraphs, showing at No. 16 at the latter. BA did rank Frasso’s fastball as the best in the Dodgers’ system.

Second baseman Michael Busch was added to the 40-man roster in November, and was ranked seventh in the system by Baseball Prospectus. FanGraphs had Busch as the Dodgers’ No. 3 prospect, and BA ranked him fourth. Even though FanGraphs was highest on Busch, they list him as a designated hitter, calling him a “bat-only player.”

Longenhagen at FanGraphs wrote, “It’s tough to be a 2-WAR DH every year (Bryce Harper‘s 2022 100-game line was good for 2 WAR), but Busch has the hit/power combination to do it.”

Busch is one of seven players ranked among the top ten Dodgers prospects by all three of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs, along with Cartaya, Miller, Vargas, Gavin Stone, and Andy Pages.

The other consensus top-ten prospect thus far is pitcher Nick Nastrini, who was drafted by the Dodgers out of UCLA in the fourth round in 2021. He had a 3.93 ERA between High-A Great Lakes and Double-A Tulsa in 2022, with 169 strikeouts and 55 walks in 116⅔ innings. The 11.4-percent walk rate is high, but not enough to hinder the right-hander’s promise among prospect rankers.

Baseball America ranks Nastrini ninth in the Dodgers system, noting, “Nastrini’s loud stuff and improved control give him a chance to be a No. 4 starter if he can maintain his strides.”

“He’s already 23 and in the upper levels of the minors, but because Nastrini was only drafted in 2021, the Dodgers have the next two or three years to try to get the strike throwing in a better place before they truly have to consider moving him to the bullpen,” wrote Longenhagen at FanGraphs, who ranked Nastrini eighth. “If they do, he has late-inning stuff.”

Here’s a look at every Dodgers prospect rated in some fashion by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, or FanGraphs. We’ll update later in the offseason as more national rankings come out, and after BA unveils its top-30 lists.