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Trayce Thompson salary arbitration preview

Dodgers outfielder is arbitration-eligible for the first time

Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers - Game One Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

Our final salary arbitration preview among the Dodgers might be the hardest to figure out, thanks to Trayce Thompson’s arduous journey to even reach this point in his career.

Thompson’s second stint with Los Angeles came last June, when he provided a lifeline for an injured Dodgers outfield, and hit his way back into relevance over two months. After debuting with the White Sox in 2015, it took Thompson eight seasons and eight different organizations to get to three years of major league service time, now heading into his age-32 season.

On one hand, Thompson heads into his first time through salary arbitration on a high note, having hit .256/.353/.507 with a 142 wRC+ and 13 home runs in a half-season, all but six games with the Dodgers in 2022. He led the Dodgers in average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel rate (8.2 percent of his plate appearances), and trailed only Joey Gallo and Freddie Freeman in hard-hit rate (46.9 percent).

But Thompson also only has 290 plate appearances in the majors over the last four years, having spent nearly a half-decade back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues.

Thompson’s best arbitration case will emphasize his 2022 production, so let’s look at that first, with various three-year outfielders over the last two years.

Comparable outfielders to Trayce Thompson

Outfielder Arb year Service time PA 2B HR BA/OBP/SLG wRC+ bWAR fWAR Salary
Outfielder Arb year Service time PA 2B HR BA/OBP/SLG wRC+ bWAR fWAR Salary
Trayce Thompson 2023 3.010 255 14 13 .256/.353/.507 142 2.0 2.5 TBD
Austin Slater 2022 3.147 306 12 12 .241/.320/.423 101 1.3 1.4 $1.85 million
Brett Phillips 2022 3.013 292 9 13 .206/.300/.427 103 2.4 2.3 $1.4 million
Jordan Luplow 2022 3.112 193 8 11 .202/.326/.454 116 0.6 0.5 $1.4 million
Bradley Zimmer 2022 3.077 299 9 8 .227/.325/.344 89 1.2 1.5 $1.3 million
Adam Engel 2021 3.058 93 5 3 .295/.333/.477 120 1.6 0.9 $1.35 million
Víctor Robles 2022 3.033 369 21 2 .203/.310/.295 68 -0.2 -0.2 $1.65 million
Raimel Tapia 2021 3.020 206 8 1 .321/.369/.402 96 0.8 0.7 $1.95 million
Harrison Bader 2021 3.030 125 7 4 .226/.336/.443 114 1.0 1.1 $2 million
Alex Verdugo 2022 3.078 604 32 13 .289/.351/.426 107 2.2 2.0 $3.55 million
Source: MLB Trade Rumors arbitration tracker

I put Alex Verdugo on the list not to argue Thompson should earn something near the $3.55 million the former Dodgers outfielder made in 2022, his first time through arbitration. But it was more to show that, even though Thompson played half the time in his launch season, he was basically just as valuable as Verdugo over a full season.

Thompson was better than everyone on this list offensively, though a number of these players added value on defense, including Bradley Zimmer, one of the outfielders signed to minor league deals by the Dodgers this offseason.

Thompson’s launch year had the highest FanGraphs WAR of everyone on the list. Only Brett Phillips and Verdugo had higher Baseball Reference WAR.

Here are the career numbers of that same group heading into their first year of salary arbitration.

Comparable outfielders to Trayce Thompson — career numbers

Outfielder Arb year Service time PA 2B HR BA/OBP/SLG wRC+ bWAR fWAR Salary
Outfielder Arb year Service time PA 2B HR BA/OBP/SLG wRC+ bWAR fWAR Salary
Trayce Thompson 2023 3.010 879 39 39 .221/.303/.434 102 3.3 3.1 TBD
Austin Slater 2022 3.147 954 32 26 .253/.338/.400 101 4.0 3.4 $1.85 million
Brett Phillips 2022 3.013 675 18 23 .203/.291/.381 82 4.9 4.2 $1.4 million
Jordan Luplow 2022 3.112 736 32 34 .225/.326/.454 109 2.1 3.2 $1.4 million
Bradley Zimmer 2022 3.077 858 29 19 .226/.310/.348 79 2.7 2.9 $1.3 million
Adam Engel 2021 3.058 1,140 43 21 .222/.276/.343 67 3.5 3.8 $1.35 million
Víctor Robles 2022 3.033 1,268 63 25 .237/.317/.375 83 4.6 3.7 $1.65 million
Raimel Tapia 2021 3.020 892 45 13 .285/.324/.409 79 -0.5 0.4 $1.95 million
Harrison Bader 2021 3.030 1,050 44 31 .235/.322/.399 95 6.7 7.1 $2 million
Alex Verdugo 2022 3.078 1,313 76 33 .290/.348/.444 110 7.3 6.0 $3.55 million
Source: MLB Trade Rumors arbitration tracker

The two players most similar by career numbers to Thompson here are Jordan Luplow and Austin Slater. Luplow has the better offensive numbers but in fewer playing time than even Thompson, though the two are nearly a match by FanGraphs WAR. Luplow made $1.4 million last season.

Austin Slater has a near identical career wRC+ to Thompson, with a slight edge in plate appearances and both examples of WAR. Slater made $1.85 million last year, but with three years, 147 days of service time he was in his second arbitration year, having earned $1.15 million the season before.

Whatever discount you might give on Slater’s $1.85 million as an upper limit for Thompson (because Slater’s Super Two year inflated this second time through arb) might be made up by Thompson’s superior launch season.

But using Luplow and Slater as a rough salary range for Thompson, between $1.4 million and $1.85 million feels right. That’s where the MLB Trade Rumors projection sits, from Steve Adams and Matt Swartz in October. They have Thompson earning $1.7 million.

I’ll go a little lower, guessing $1.6 million for Thompson in 2023.