Trayce Thompson salary arbitration preview

Our final salary arbitration preview among the Dodgers might be the hardest to figure out, thanks to Trayce Thompson’s arduous journey to even reach this point in his career.

Thompson’s second stint with Los Angeles came last June, when he provided a lifeline for an injured Dodgers outfield, and hit his way back into relevance over two months. After debuting with the White Sox in 2015, it took Thompson eight seasons and eight different organizations to get to three years of major league service time, now heading into his age-32 season.

On one hand, Thompson heads into his first time through salary arbitration on a high note, having hit .256/.353/.507 with a 142 wRC+ and 13 home runs in a half-season, all but six games with the Dodgers in 2022. He led the Dodgers in average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel rate (8.2 percent of his plate appearances), and trailed only Joey Gallo and Freddie Freeman in hard-hit rate (46.9 percent).

But Thompson also only has 290 plate appearances in the majors over the last four years, having spent nearly a half-decade back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues.

Thompson’s best arbitration case will emphasize his 2022 production, so let’s look at that first, with various three-year outfielders over the last two years.

I put Alex Verdugo on the list not to argue Thompson should earn something near the $3.55 million the former Dodgers outfielder made in 2022, his first time through arbitration. But it was more to show that, even though Thompson played half the time in his launch season, he was basically just as valuable as Verdugo over a full season.

Thompson was better than everyone on this list offensively, though a number of these players added value on defense, including Bradley Zimmer, one of the outfielders signed to minor league deals by the Dodgers this offseason.

Thompson’s launch year had the highest FanGraphs WAR of everyone on the list. Only Brett Phillips and Verdugo had higher Baseball Reference WAR.

Here are the career numbers of that same group heading into their first year of salary arbitration.

The two players most similar by career numbers to Thompson here are Jordan Luplow and Austin Slater. Luplow has the better offensive numbers but in fewer playing time than even Thompson, though the two are nearly a match by FanGraphs WAR. Luplow made $1.4 million last season.

Austin Slater has a near identical career wRC+ to Thompson, with a slight edge in plate appearances and both examples of WAR. Slater made $1.85 million last year, but with three years, 147 days of service time he was in his second arbitration year, having earned $1.15 million the season before.

Whatever discount you might give on Slater’s $1.85 million as an upper limit for Thompson (because Slater’s Super Two year inflated this second time through arb) might be made up by Thompson’s superior launch season.

But using Luplow and Slater as a rough salary range for Thompson, between $1.4 million and $1.85 million feels right. That’s where the MLB Trade Rumors projection sits, from Steve Adams and Matt Swartz in October. They have Thompson earning $1.7 million.

I’ll go a little lower, guessing $1.6 million for Thompson in 2023.