Boom or bust: the Pop-Tart Boys of Summer

The 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers are a good team. With the second-best record in the National League and the second-best run differential in baseball, one might be tempted to say that I damning the team with faint praise.

There is nothing wrong with being a good team.

However, the Dodgers spent $1.4 billion on new player signings. Now, as the film Moneyball should have taught us (apart from Jonah Hill having range) is that the goal is not to buy players, the goal is to buy wins through a combination of run generation and run prevention. The Dodgers did not pay just for “good.”

Unless you live under a rock, you know that Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Mookie Betts went down with injuries over the Weekend from Hell in Los Angeles. The good news is that both are not expected to have surgery, and both are expected back this year.

Betts is expected back in six to eight weeks, which would put his estimated return no earlier than August 1. Recovering from broken hand bones can be tricky, especially when considering the intricacies of hitting. Injuries have played a role, but all teams have to deal with injuries throughout the year.

But I noticed a couple of trends arising in the Dodgers’ play even before Betts and company were injured, which we now will review before an update on in-person coverage.

The 2024 (Pop-Tart) Boys of Summer

Shohei Ohtani’s inaugural season in Los Angeles, even in half duty without any pitching, has largely been as good as advertised. Per Sarah Langs, there have been 51 home runs hit at Dodger Stadium more than 440 feet in the Statcast era (2015), the fewest in baseball. Ohtani already has hit four of them this season.

However, the Dodgers’ offense has been shockingly inconsistent this season.

This lineup is top-heavy, which has been a problem mostly all season. However, it’s also been misfiring like a finicky sports car. First, the Dodgers have scored two or fewer runs about a quarter of the time (19 out of 79 games), including six such games out of 20 in June.

Let’s compare that to the 2023 team, which did not have Ohtani mind you. One would imagine a team with less offensive firepower would be held to two or fewer runs more often. But last year through 79 games, the Dodgers were held to two or fewer runs 17 times, two fewer than this year. On the season in 2023, the Dodgers scored two or fewer runs 30 times, 18.5 percent of the schedule.

Ultimately, issues with depth and injuries are likely causing the team to sputter offensively more than one would expect after such a financial outlay. But said analysis is only a symptom — we need to look at one of the root causes.

Boom or bust

The Dodgers’ situational hitting over the past couple of years, at times, can leave something to be desired. Take Saturday night’s loss to the hapless Anaheim Angels. Ohtani hit a gargantuan home run that accounted for the Dodgers’ only scoring in an eventual 3-2, extra innings loss. The running gag is this was a Tungsten Arm O’Doyle game that Ohtani used to have often in Anaheim.

On Friday, the Dodgers got the tying run to third in the bottom of the tenth with one out. Kiké Hernández struck out on three pitches, Gavin Lux struck out on five pitches, with Will Smith standing in the on-deck circle. Game over.

I bring up this series of events to comment that sometimes it feels that the Dodgers are trying for the long ball when just a base hit or putting the ball in the air will have positive results, which needs to the next point.

Over the past few years, it’s not just you, the Dodgers are built around the long ball. The viability of said strategy in the playoffs is a question for another day, especially when dealing with fastballs.

So far, the offense of the 2024 Dodgers can be described in a single sentence: if they are not homering, they are likely not winning. The records with winning percentages are displayed below.

• When the Dodgers hit no home runs: 8-18, .308 (MLB winning percentage .328)
• When the Dodgers hit one home run: 12-10, .545 (MLB .513)
• When the Dodgers hit two or more home runs: 28-3, .903 (MLB .695)

These splits are absurd, but then again so are the splits for the league as a whole. If the Dodgers do not homer, they are slightly better than equivalent to the 2024 Chicago White Sox and their .269 winning percentage. If the Dodgers homer twice, the team could and would likely destroy the 1992 All-Star Springfield Nuclear Power Plant Softball Team in their prime (even without any misfortune).

Updated field coverage

As referenced earlier, the White Sox are bad, really bad. It is inexcusable because, unlike the Oakland Athletics, this team is actually, allegedly trying to win ballgames. The above video shows how the White Sox lost on June 21st.

The Dodgers start a three-game series in the southside on Monday.

In a quirk of fate, I will be providing on-field coverage because I can on a minimal investment. I rarely say the following sentence: on paper, the Dodgers should be sweeping this series with relative ease. I would love it if the Dodgers showed everyone their leadership capabilities. Dare I dream of the Dodgers showing me what is best in life in Chicago? I will endeavor not to jinx the proceedings.

I am looking forward to having the above, likely overpriced shake. I cannot imagine it will be worse than some of the other regional fare I have had.

I will make a point to tour Wrigley Field as Guaranteed Rate Field does not offer tours (shocker). I have made a dedicated Twitter account for my travels if you wish to follow along.

In a month, I am hopeful that Clayton Kershaw will be making his season debut in the Motor City against the Detroit Tigers. In any event, the amendments to the travel schedule will raise my stadium count to 26 out of 30, putting me on pace to complete the Guide by the end of the 2026 season.

Accordingly, travel to Miami to see the Miami Marlins will likely not be happening this year barring some unanticipated miracle. Please update your itinerary accordingly as I look forward to reporting from the road.